Memphis vs. NC State
On Friday, December 19, the Memphis Tigers will face the NC State Wolfpack in the Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl. This game will be played at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa Bay, Florida, where we’re actually set to get a battle between two teams that will be playing most of their starters. Memphis head coach Ryan Silverfield did leave for the Arkansas job, leaving defensive backs coach Reggie Howard to serve as the interim. However, there aren’t too many reported opt-outs for the Tigers. Meanwhile, NC State could be without Justin Joly, Hollywood Smothers, Brandon Cleveland, Devon Marshall, and Jacarrius Peak, but quarterback CJ Bailey is expected to be one of many starters to play. And Wolfpack head coach Dave Doeren, who is returning in 2026, seems to have his team motivated for this bowl game. He said he doesn’t understand the concept of opting out.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of December 16, 12:45 pm ET; check out our DraftKings Betting Splits and Circa Betting Splits.
Gasparilla Bowl: Memphis vs. NC State (-4.5, 58.5)
Friday, Dec. 19, 2:30 pm ET (ESPN2)
Memphis had a real shot at making the College Football Playoff, but the team stumbled down the stretch. The Tigers lost their final three games of the season, coming up short against Tulane, East Carolina, and Navy. The Tigers finished the year with an 8-4 record, which is slightly better than the Wolfpack’s 7-5 mark. However, NC State did play in a better conference. The Wolfpack also happened to earn wins over Florida State and North Carolina to end the season, meaning they’re coming into this game with some momentum.
The VSiN betting splits actually do tell an interesting story with this game. Despite the fact that NC State appears to be taking most of the tickets and handle, the Wolfpack have moved from -5.5 to -4.5 at DraftKings Sportsbook. They have also gone from -6 to -4.5 at Circa Sports. That suggests there has to be some smart money on Memphis, but I’m having a hard time getting there.
There’s undoubtedly a pathway to victory for the Tigers. Memphis is 24th in the nation in Rush EPA per play (0.095). That could trouble an NC State defense that is 53rd in Rush EPA per play allowed (-0.005). The Tigers are also 22nd in the nation in Early Down EPA per play (0.132). That could be a big advantage with the Wolfpack being 83rd in Early Down EPA per play allowed (0.006). It isn’t crazy to think that Memphis can do some damage on the ground and control the time of possession to grind out a victory. However, I believe there’s a little more that favors the NC State side, which is why I’m looking to lay the points.
I’m just not sure the Wolfpack rushing defense will allow the Tigers to run all over them. This is a defensive line that held up pretty well when facing similarly-talented opponents. It was the big-name brands and elite programs that hurt them. Also, while NC State’s passing defense can be a bit of a problem, Memphis quarterback Brendon Lewis was banged up to end the regular season. That played a role in the Tigers unraveling, and I’m not sure he has had enough time to get completely right heading into this one.
What I’m really watching here is CJ Bailey and the NC State passing offense against a weak Memphis passing defense. Bailey might end up entering the transfer portal in a couple of days, but he’s supposed to play here. Well, he has a big arm and the ability to beat defenses in multiple ways. Don’t be surprised if he absolutely shreds the Tigers, who are barely inside the top 100 in Dropback EPA per play allowed (0.071). Not only is Memphis very weak against the pass but the team will also be without defensive back Samson Israel, who played quite a bit towards the end of the year.
Memphis vs. NC State Gasparilla Bowl Prediction
The coaching situation is way more stable with NC State. Charles Huff was a good hire for Memphis, but he is going to be relatively hands-off until after the bowl game. And the Tigers lost most of their offensive staff, making that side of the ball a bigger question mark. The Wolfpack won’t have that problem. Doeren is sticking around and treating this like business as usual.
Speaking of Doeren, NC State is 7-2 straight-up and 5-4 against the spread when facing AAC opponents under him. The Wolfpack are also 2-1 as neutral-field favorites of 7 or fewer under Doeren.
Pick: NC State -4.5 (-108)
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