Week 7 Friday games feature Tulane vs. Memphis, Stanford vs. Colorado
A trio of fascinating games is set for Friday night, as all three games have some major intrigue and also some bigger names than the rest of the weekday action. Tulane and Memphis meet in a big AAC clash that could have some Group of Five New Year’s Six implications, while Coach Prime and Colorado host Stanford. We’ve also got a big situational spot and a best bet from Tyler Shoemaker in the Fresno State vs. Utah State matchup.
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Tulane Green Wave (-4.5, 54.5) at Memphis Tigers
Tulane’s lone blemish on the season is a 17-point loss to Ole Miss that was way closer than the 37-20 score would indicate. The Green Wave had to roll with backup QB Kai Horton instead of Michael Pratt and Ole Miss scored 20 points in the fourth quarter, including a 26-yard fumble return TD to really put some distance in the game. Tulane led 17-7 at one point and only got outgained by 21 yards.
Memphis also lost to a good opponent in the Battle of the Tigers, as they fell 34-27 to Missouri, but they allowed 542 yards and 8.9 yards per play. Memphis has close wins over Navy and Boise State while playing the 128th-ranked schedule. Tulane has played the 100th-ranked schedule and Pratt has missed time.
In other words, I agree with this line moving up, as Tulane is up to -5 across most of the market. My line is actually north of a touchdown here, as I’ve downgraded Memphis in my power ratings for their close wins and also some really suspect coaching from Ryan Silverfield. I don’t have the same coaching concerns with Willie Fritz.
Both teams are coming off of the bye and have comparable offenses, as Tulane comes in 44th in yards per play with 6.22 and Memphis comes in 49th with 6.17, but Tulane has a top-25 defense by YPP and Memphis is 76th, plus they’ve played the weaker schedule.
Pick: Tulane -4.5
Other Friday Games
Stanford at Colorado (-11.5, 59): The Buffaloes celebrated a 27-24 win over Arizona State to snap a two-game losing streak and a three-game stretch of allowing at least 35 points. Stanford is winless in Pac-12 play and just 1-4 for the season, with the lone win coming against Hawaii in Week 1. The Cardinal lost to head coach Troy Taylor’s former employer, Sacramento State, along with getting blown out by USC and Oregon.
Colorado falls somewhere in between those teams. This is a big number for the Buffs, but they are in Boulder and Stanford’s offense isn’t good enough to expose their porous defense. Stanford is also 128th in yards per play allowed on defense, so it would be Colorado or nothing here.
Fresno State (-5, 57.5) at Utah State: This game did get a mention in my situational spots article this week, as Fresno State plays at elevation for a second straight week. They’re also dealing with some uncertainty at the QB position with Mikey Keene’s knee injury. Utah State QB Cooper Legas has thrown for 591 yards and seven touchdowns in about a game and a half after taking over against UConn for injured freshman McCae Hillstrand.
The Aggies had a big second half last week against Colorado State for a 44-24 win and the market has been moving on them throughout the week here. My power ratings line shows value on Fresno State, but I don’t like the Keene injury situation.
