Tuley’s Takes – College Football Bowl and Playoff Best Bets:

Happy holidays to you and yours from the Tuley’s Takes home office. In addition, have a happy bowl season, too. We finished the CFB regular season three weekends ago by going 2-1 ATS in our college football best bets and then went 2-1 ATS again in Championship Week. Army upset Tulane in a 35-14 rout as 4.5-point home underdogs in the American Athletic Conference title game, and Ohio blew out Miami (OH) 38-3 as 2-point dogs in the MAC championship (nothing makes us happier than when our “dog or pass” plays not only cover but win outright). Our loss was on UNLV +4.5 in a 21-7 loss to Boise State in the Mountain West title game.

But we can’t rest on our laurels, as the bowl season is a brand new ballgame, so to speak. We have a lot of stats on these teams, but obviously, a lot of the talk this time of year is about players leaving for the transfer portal, NIL deals, etc. We obviously take all this into account (which is why we haven’t posted all my bowl “takes” earlier and will be adding to this file as the games approach). 

 

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However, I’ve found over the years – since injuries, academic suspensions and coaching changes have been a huge part of bowl handicapping since the sport began – that unless a team is totally decimated by changes, the backups tend to step up and the “system” can still perform well. This often leads to us landing on underdogs who are being dismissed, and we get more points on these dogs. Again, it’s a case-by-case basis, but we’ll look for these opportunities throughout the bowl season.

We’re adding more plays to this master file throughout the bowl season.

Texas Longhorns (+6) vs. Ohio State Buckeyes

CFB Playoff semifinal

Friday, Jan. 10, 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)

I passed on the Notre Dame-Penn State CFB semifinal game on Thursday as I couldn’t make a good enough case for Penn State plus the point (+1) or points. Besides, I don’t like teasing college football games, though I won’t shame those that do, as these CFB playoffs are as close to “pro football” as you can get and more likely to play closer to the numbers than your typical college games.

Having said all that, I do love Texas in Friday’s second semifinal, especially as the advance line for this potential matchup was around Ohio State -1.5, and I was like a Longhorn jumping over the moon (Get it? Because a longhorn is a cow!) when it went over a field goal. And now it’s steaming toward a touchdown, or at least one without an extra point.

But I’m not sure we’ll need any extra points. The Buckeyes are the flavor of the month after blowing out Tennessee 42-17 as 7.5-point favorites in the first round of the CFB Playoff and then also routing Oregon  41-21 as 2.5-point chalk in the quarterfinals. That has led the public to jump on the Buckeye bandwagon, as 80% of the bets and money at DraftKings has been on them as of Thursday afternoon. According to the VSIN Betting Spliits, Circa is taking 79% of bets on Ohio State, though 64% of the handle has been on Texas (sharp money? I think so).

While Texas hasn’t looked as impressive in their two playoff wins (though I’ll argue the defense lives up to its former glory by holding Arizona State to a mere 8 points through the first three quarters before holding on for a 39-31 OT win), the Longhorns’ body of work matches up well with Ohio State. And let’s not forget the Buckeyes put in an inexplicable clunker when losing 13-10 to its biggest rival, Michigan, less than six weeks ago. Finally, I love looking at games against common opponents, and the fact is Texas dominated the defending national champions 31-12 back on Sept. 7, though granted that was before we knew this season’s Wolverines were overrated. Still, how is this line not a lot closer to pick’-em?

College Football Best Bets: Texas +6

LSU (+4) vs. Baylor

Texas Bowl

Tuesday, Dec. 31, 3:30 p.m. ET

This line has flipped from LSU to Baylor being favored, and the line continues to climb. Most of that appears to be due to LSU having all but one starter opt out of playing in this game (and the money coming in on the Baylor side). However, I’m willing to fade the move and take the points with the overall better team. QB Garrett Nussmeier has announced he’s returning for his senior season. He’s saying all the right things about giving the young backups a chance. And if he’s willing to trust them, I will, too. I can’t tell you how many times I’ve won bets like these over the years, especially in bowl games, where the line ended up being overadjusted on similar news. A top-level program like LSU always has hungry players waiting for their opportunity. Baylor’s middle-of-the-road defense will also be without its interception leader, S Corey Gordon, so that should help LSU in what should be a shootout.

College Football Best Bets: LSU +1

Arizona State (+12) vs. Texas

Peach Bowl/CFB Playoff quarterfinal

Tuesday, Jan. 1, 1 p.m. ET

After all the favorites romped and covered in the first round of the CFB Playoff, it’s hard to pull the trigger with the underdogs in this round, especially when fading those teams that are playing well. Texas fell behind Clemson 7-0 but then scored three unanswered touchdowns on the way to a 28-10 halftime lead and then held on to cover as 13.5-point home favorites in their 38-24 victory. The Longhorns have been ranked higher (and power-rated higher by oddsmakers and bettors) all year, so it’s not surprising that they’re favored despite being the lower seed to the Big 12 champion Sun Devils, but I still think the line has been set too high. It was as high as two TDs, but I think the sharp money betting the dog has been on the right side. In fact, the market has been underestimating this ASU team all season (and I admit to being guilty of it earlier) as the Sun Devils at 11-2 ATS and covering by more than 11 points per game. I’m not saying this line is off by 11 points – and I’d certainly be passing if it was less than a touchdown – but it’s clearly a play for me at double digits. With ASU’s top receiver out and relying on RB Cam Skattebo, plus Texas’ strong running game, the clock could be running a lot. I think the better play might be on Under 51 points. So we’ll play both (parlay at your own risk, though dog/under is often correlated). 

College Football Best Bets: Arizona State +12 and Under 51

Notre Dame (+1) vs. Georgia

Sugar Bowl/CFB Playoff quarterfinal

Tuesday, Jan. 1, 8:35 p.m. ET

There’s been a lot of moving parts with this game as the Irish were favored in look-ahead lines but it flipped to Georgia. However, Bulldogs QB Carson Beck after UCL surgery, so the line has been moving back to Notre Dame. The Irish ran over Indiana 27-17 in the first CFB Playoff first-round game, though their stats were skewed by a 98-yard TD run by Jeremiyah Love to start the scoring. Both have solid defenses (so again, leaning to the Under, but not sure I’ll make that bet), but I still give the edge to the Notre Dame offense, even though I’m not a huge fan of Riley Leonard. With the line down to 1 at most books (still some +1.5s available as of Monday’s deadline), I’m obviously counting on the outright upset, so we’ll just go with the money line

College Football Best Bets: Notre Dame +105

PAST BOWL BETS

South Florida (+3) vs. San Jose State

Hawai’i Bowl

Tuesday, Dec. 24, 8 p.m. ET

We’ve been waiting since this matchup was announced for definitive news on whether South Florida QB Byrum Brown is able to return. Brown had more than 4,000 total yards last season (3,292 passing, 809 rushing) and 37 total TDs (26 passing, 11 rushing) and was off to a good start this season before suffering a foot injury. Coach Alex Golesh got the Bulls ready for their bowl game last season, and they routed Syracuse 45-0 behind Brown’s 214 yards passing and three TDs. I expect the same thing here against a mediocre San Jose State team (though the Spartans do have a better defense). This line has ticked down from +3.5 to +3 (perhaps on the prospect of Brown playing), but I’m still on the dog as I have this closer to pick ’em to win straight-up, so we’ll also take +130 or higher on the money line. Obviously I’m hoping Brown is able to go, but I like the Bulls regardless.

College Football Best Bets: South Florida +3 and +130 money line

Louisiana Tech (+17) vs. Army

Independence Bowl

Saturday, Dec. 28, 9:15 p.m. ET

If your bowl pools were circulated early, they might have included Marshall vs. Army in the Independence Bowl, but Marshall withdrew from the game after coach Charles Huff left for Southern Mississippi and more than 20 players left for the transfer portal. Louisiana Tech was only 5-7 this season and wouldn’t normally be bowl-eligible, but was reportedly chosen based on having a high Academic Progress Rate (and probably due to being about an hour drive from the bowl site in Shreveport, Louisiana). The Bulldogs did win two of their last three games, but this is more of a play against Army, which has had a great season at 11-2. While there was no shame in getting routed 49-14 by Notre Dame, I feel the Cadets were exposed in their 31-13 loss vs. Navy. If Army wasn’t able to get up for that rivalry game, I’m not sure how much this game will mean to them for them to win by margin. Louisiana Tech averages 22.2 points per game (Omiri Wiggins ran for 129 yards and three TDs in their last game), so if they can get anywhere near that number, they should be able to cover this spread.

College Football Best Bets: Louisiana Tech +17

Past picks…

Tulane Green Wave (+10.5) vs. Florida Gators 

Gasparilla Bowl

Friday, 3:30 p.m. ET

Yes, we know Tulane’s starting QB Darian Mensah entered the transfer portal last week. He is leaving for Duke and won’t be playing in this game. However, longtime readers of mine know I often love to take teams with backup quarterbacks as the oddsmakers and the public almost always overreact to this type of news, and we get way more points (this line was as high as Florida -14). The reasoning is that coaches can plug a QB into the “system” and the offense hardly misses a beat. 

It’s not infallible, of course, but we’ve had a lot of success with these situations over the years. Tulane’s offense averaged 37.2 points per game this season with a balanced attack of 215.8 passing yards per game and 205.4 rushing yards led by RB Makhi Hughes. If the head coach had also left, I wouldn’t be as confident, but Tulane signed Jon Sumrall to a contract extension. Besides, the players left behind tend to step up in support of the backup. (In this case, it’s Ty Thompson, who you might remember from playing at Oregon, so he’s far from a complete unknown.) Florida’s defense has also suffered some losses due to injury. Even though we got Tulane at higher numbers in our bowl pools, anything in double digits is a play.

College Football Best Bets: Tulane +10.5

Indiana (+7) vs. Notre Dame 

CFB Playoff First Round

Friday, 8 p.m. ET

We get Friday Night Lights for the opening game of the expanded CFB Playoff and an in-state rivalry to boot. Regular readers will remember I lost with Indiana versus Ohio State in their late regular-season matchup, even though many people were saying the Hoosiers should have sat starting QB Kurtis Rourke so as not to jeopardize their playoff chances in case they got blown out. I’m glad they did the right thing (and were not punished for it), but most people forget Indiana led 7-0 and then only trailed 14-7 at halftime before getting run over in the second half. But I think they proved they could play with top teams despite their relatively weak strength of schedule – and I still have the Buckeyes power-rated better than the Irish. 

Remember, Notre Dame lost to my alma mater, Northern Illinois (at home, by the way!), and I know the Huskies weren’t very good. I’ll take Rourke over Riley Leonard, plus I’m not sold on the Notre Dame defense that gave up 557 yards (360 passing and 197 rushing) and five TDs in a 49-35 shootout against USC. The only common opponent was Purdue, with Notre Dame routing the Boilermakers 66-7 and Indiana doing one score better at 66-0. 

I’m not saying Indiana should be favored based off of just those two results, but I can argue that this line should be under a touchdown, which makes the +8 a play (note: that was the line when the VSiN Bowl Betting Guide was published, but the Hoosiers are still a play at +7 as I truly believe the early money has been on the right side). I also have the Hoosiers advancing to the CFB Playoff quarterfinals in my bracket elsewhere in this VSiN Bowl Betting Guide, so give me +250 on the moneyline as well.

College Football Best Bets: Indiana +7

Clemson (+12) at Texas 

CFB Playoff First Round

Saturday, 4 p.m. ET

The one bet I regret not making in Championship Week was Clemson +2.5 versus SMU in the ACC title game. I didn’t include it in my “Tuley’s Takes” column at VSiN.com, as my main argument would have been the Tigers have more of a winning culture recently than SMU, and Dabo Swinney knows how to prepare his team for big games. I know that’s a square way of handicapping, so I couldn’t pull the trigger. But here we are in the CFB Playoff, and I don’t want to make the same mistake. 

This Clemson team isn’t as strong as we’re used to seeing, but Swinney got the Tigers here despite losses to Georgia, Louisville and South Carolina by virtue of the 34-31 win over SMU. Texas has stayed in the Top 5 all season despite losing twice to Georgia. The Longhorns played the Bulldogs closer, but Clemson has the excuse of its loss being in the season-opener. If this line was closer to a touchdown (which is where I think it should be if being totally objective), I would probably pass, but I can’t resist getting Clemson plus double digits. The only double-digit wins by Texas overranked teams were against Michigan and Oklahoma, and we all know how overrated those teams ended up being.

College Football Best Bets: Clemson +12

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