Tuley’s Takes – Week 11 College Football Best Bets and Predictions:

I love it when a plan comes together, and last week, we went 3-0 against the spread with our college football “dog or pass” plays here in the Tuley’s Takes home office.

We won with Vanderbilt (+7.5) and Northwestern (+1.5) both pulling outright upsets as Vandy beat Auburn 17-7 and NU beat Purdue 26-20 in OT while Louisiana-Monroe (+10.5) covered in a 28-23 loss at Marshall.

 

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I felt bad last week when I was only offering three plays on a full Saturday CFB card, but I wanted to just go with my strongest plays, and it certainly worked out perfectly (especially since the last three plays that didn’t make the cut went 1-2 ATS).

With that in mind, we (hopefully) have another three live dogs this Saturday.

Syracuse (+2) at Boston College

Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET

These are teams heading in opposite directions, and I don’t believe the right team is favored as the only thing I can think of is because BC is playing at home (see my “Tuley’s Takes” NFL column this week for more discussion on how oddsmakers and the betting markets continue to give too much credit for home-field advantage). Boston College (4-4, 1-3 in the ACC) has lost three straight games by an average of nearly 12 points a game, while Syracuse (6-2, 3-2 in ACC) has won four of its last five games with the only loss being to No. 10 Pittsburgh. Give me the balanced attack of QB Kyle McCord and RB LeQuint Allen (121 rushing yards, three TDs last week) to pull the minor upset.

Week 11 College Football Best Bet: Syracuse +2

Oklahoma State (+11.5) at TCU

Saturday, 7:00 p.m. ET

Both these teams are down from what we’ve seen from them in recent years. Oklahoma State (3-6, 0-6 in the Big 12), though the Cowboys are trying to avoid their first losing season since coach Mike Gundy’s first year in 2005 and need to win out to become bowl-eligible, so I don’t believe they will go down without a fight. Beyond that, I’m not going to make a case for OSU, especially since this is more of a bet against TCU (5-4, 3-3 in Big 12). The Horned Frogs haven’t won by more than this spread this season except against Long Island, an FCS school, so while we’re not calling for the outright upset, we have plenty of wiggle room to cover the overinflated spread. It also helps that TCU allows an average of 29.2 points per game, so this could be a back-and-forth shootout that comes down to one score.

Week 11 College Football Best Bet: Oklahoma State +11.5

Central Florida (+3) at Arizona State

Saturday, 7:00 p.m. ET

I still have a hard time thinking of these two programs as being in the Big 12 (or that the Big 12 has 17 teams), but that’s a column for another time. Central Florida (4-5, 2-4 in the Big 12) started the season 3-0, including a win over TCU in their conference opener, but then lost five straight before snapping that losing streak with a 56-12 rout of Arizona. Longtime readers will recognize this as a mini-swagger play, as the Knights should gain a lot of confidence after ending that skid. Besides, their losses were to Colorado, the SEC’s Florida, Iowa State and BYU, so I actually see this as a step down in class against Arizona State (6-2, 3-2). While UCF racked up 602 yards of total offense vs. Arizona, ASU gained 529 in its 42-21 win vs. Oklahoma State, so this should be a shootout with both offenses on a roll, and I’ll take the short dog.

Week 11 College Football Best Bet: Central Florida +3

For more Week 11 college football analysis, visit the Week 11 College Football Hub, exclusively on VSiN.com.

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