Week 12 College Football Best Bets, Picks and Predictions from Matt Youmans:

It was argued for several years that an expanded playoff format would reduce the importance of the college football regular season. It was a lame argument. In the first year of the 12-team playoff, the regular season is as good as ever, and arguably better. Each week, there are multiple games with playoff implications. Oregon, No. 1 in the playoff rankings for the second week in a row, will get tested at Wisconsin on Saturday night. Georgia, which won two of the past three national championships, would be the first team left out of the playoff bracket as of now. The Bulldogs, home favorites against Tennessee, are in a must-win game. Boise State, Brigham Young, Texas and a few other teams also need to win or face the consequences. An expanded playoff field should have happened a long time ago, but it’s better late than never. Here are my five Week 12 college football best bets:

 

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Ohio State (-28.5) at Northwestern

Nine games into its season, Northwestern has used three quarterbacks who have a total of five touchdown passes. All five have been thrown by Jack Lausch, who will never show up on any NFL mock drafts. The Wildcats don’t do anything especially well, but they do hang tough in most games, as they did in a 41-24 loss to Indiana in early October. Northwestern is off a bye week, and the Buckeyes could show up at Wrigley Field with their eyes on bigger games against Indiana and Michigan the next two weeks.

Week 12 College Football Best Bet: Northwestern +28.5

Boise State (-14.5) at San Jose State

The Broncos, 8-1 with a three-point loss at Oregon, will be a playoff team if they win the Mountain West. Ashton Jeanty, the nation’s rushing leader with 1,734 yards and 23 touchdowns, is showing some signs of wear and tear from a heavy workload. Boise survived tight games on the road against Hawaii and UNLV before a sluggish 28-21 victory over Nevada a week ago. San Jose, 6-3 and bowl-eligible in coach Ken Niumatalolo’s first season, quietly features one of the nation’s top wideouts, Nick Nash, who has 86 receptions and 13 touchdowns. Walker Eget passed for 395 yards — with Nash getting 161 yards on six catches — in the Spartans’ win at Oregon State last week.

Week 12 College Football Best Bet: San Jose State +14.5

Oregon (-14) at Wisconsin

This could be a tricky spot for the Ducks, who are playing for the eighth straight week and have a bye on deck. Oregon quarterback Dillon Gabriel could be operating an offense that’s at less than full strength, with leading rusher Jordan James and leading receiver Tez Johnson dealing with injuries. It’s a night game in Madison, so a juiced crowd will be jumping around and the Wisconsin defense will do its best to put pressure on Gabriel. I’m putting faith in Badgers coach Luke Fickell to find ways to keep this close into the fourth quarter.

Week 12 College Football Best Bet: Wisconsin +14

Kansas at Brigham Young (-2.5)

BYU just pulled a rabbit out of the hat — with some help from the officiating crew — in a miracle 22-21 win at Utah. Don’t count on the Cougars being flat for a night game in Provo, but they are running into a hungry team that is shaking off a run of bad luck. Kansas (3-6) led in the fourth quarter in all six of its losses. The Jayhawks rolled to a 45-36 victory over Iowa State last week while piling up 532 yards of total offense behind a quarterback who’s a serious threat. Jalon Daniels passed for 295 yards, ran for 68 yards and accounted for three touchdowns. Circa Sports opened BYU -4 on Sunday morning and the market moved to -2.5 by Wednesday. Find a book still offering +3 or buy the half-point on the live ‘dog.

Week 12 College Football Best Bet: Kansas +3 (-130)

San Diego State at UNLV (-21)

The Aztecs, who surrendered 56 points at Boise State on Nov. 1, are unlikely to slow the Rebels on a fast track at Allegiant Stadium. UNLV has scored an average of 40.5 points in four Mountain West games. Expect late-night fireworks on the Strip from quarterback Hajj-Malik Williams and wideout Ricky White. Williams passed for 175 yards and ran for 122 yards as the Rebels rushed for 290 yards in a win at Hawaii last week. UNLV’s weakness is its pass defense, so the Aztecs can do their part to help push the score Over the total.

Week 12 College Football Best Bet: San Diego State-UNLV Over 54

Last week: 3-2 against the spread
Season: 27-27-2

For more college football Week 12 best bets and analysis, visit the College Football Week 12 hub, exclusively on VSiN.

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