Week 13 College Football
The Week 13 edition of “TSI vs the Field” takes my proprietary college football model, the T Shoe Index, to compare and contrast with other respected predictive models – SP+, FPI, and Sagarin – to find where we align and disagree on the college football schedule. There are Week 13 college football betting opportunities based on model alignment and games where it may be best to proceed with caution or stay away if the projections vary too much.
Note: SP+ Rankings are the work of CFB analyst Bill Connelly (ESPN), FPI is the Football Power Index from ESPN Analytics, and Sagarin is Jeff Sagarin, formerly of USA Today.
Week 13 College Football Model Alignment
Model Consensus
Louisiana Tech (+1.5) vs Liberty, O/U 44.5
I wrote this game up in my early week article, but the line has moved a couple points and I think it’s worth revisiting and potentially adding another unit to the Louisiana Tech side after seeing where the model consensus is.
Our model average projection on this game is Louisiana Tech -6.1 with a variance of just 1.8 points. TSI and SP+ both predict a touchdown win for the Bulldogs, while FPI and Sagain have it just a shade under a touchdown at 5.5 apiece. There’s clearly been some money on Liberty this week, but all the data indicates Louisiana Tech is the stronger side here, especially when considering how these teams have fared ATS this year overall and in the respective home/road splits. Liberty is just 3-7 ATS overall and 2-3 on the road, while Tech is 6-4 overall and 4-1 ATS at home.
College Football Pick: Louisiana Tech +1.5
Utah vs Kansas State (+17.5), O/U 51.5
Utah is surging right now, albeit against a less-than-stellar schedule, but they’ve won their last three games by an average score of 51-16 against Baylor, Cincinnati and Colorado since losing to BYU on the road in October. They’re laying a big number against an underachieving Kansas State team this weekend, so let’s see what the models have to say about this matchup.
The model average projection on this game is Utah -15.5 with a variance of 2.6 points. No model has this game projected as high as the current 17.5-point line, thought SP+ does make it 17. TSI, FPI and Sagarin all fall between 14.5 and 16.5, indicating this price might have been pushed just far enough to consider backing Kansas State. If you’re reluctant to back the Wildcats, I don’t blame you, I’m a little skeptical myself, but the numbers are the numbers.
College Football Pick: Kansas State +17.5
Model Disagreement
Wisconsin vs Illinois (-7.5), O/U 40.5
Wisconsin was left for dead a month ago, but have admirably shown some resilience and fight lately, even beating previously-ranked Washington in the process. Their schedule has been brutal, having to play Iowa, Ohio State, Oregon and Indiana around that Washington game, so while their scores are lopsided, the competition has been stiff. They’ve also covered their last three games. Illinois has won and covered in two straight against Rutgers and Maryland.
The models aren’t quite sure what to do with this Wisconsin team – or Illinois, for that matter, after getting blown to smithereens by Illinois and playing a somewhat competitive game against Ohio State, as far as Ohio State’s “competitive games” go. The average model projection is Illinois -9, but FPI and Sagarin both have this under a touchdown, while TSI projects -9.5 and SP+ projects a whopping 16.5-point Illini win. I’m going to pass but I think Wisconsin can do enough to hang around in this game, but the spread seems about right to me.
Penn State (-8.5) vs Nebraska, O/U 44
I don’t think anyone knows what to make of this Penn State team, and that goes for the models as well. Tons of talent, completely underwhelming results on the field. To complicate matters in this game, Nebraska continues to be without QB Dylan Raiola, so there’s a lot of mixed data in there for the Huskers as well as the Jekyll and Hyde Nittany Lions.
The average model projection for this game is Penn State -6.5 but a variance of 9.3 points. TSI is the lowest on Penn State, making the line 2.5, while Sagarin makes it Penn State -12, with FPI and SP+ at 5.5 and 7, respectively. I don’t know how anyone could have a grasp of what either team is at this point, honestly, so this is a hard pass for me.
Keep an eye out for this weekly feature on Thursdays and also my Monday early-week college football bets.
