Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Friday, September 25, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
NY YANKEES momentum in follow-up game after divisional series vs. TB: 28-11 record (71.8%) for +11.61 units, ROI: 29.8%
Trend Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES GAME 1 (-125 vs BAL)
Trend: Over the total is 14-6-1 (+7.65 units) in road games with lower totals (o/u <= 8) with starter Reid Detmers in his career
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): LAA-SEA (o/u at 6.5)
Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 485-433 record for +43.54 units and an ROI of 4.7% since the start of the 2022 season, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI (+118 at TOR), ARIZONA (+114 at SD)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The 2-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, these teams are around the profitability line at 218-177 for -0.64 units (ROI: -0.2%).
System Match (PLAY): LA ANGELS (+102 at SEA)
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game went 65-69 for -22.93 units when not matched up against similar in 2025. This represents an ROI of -17.1% and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen has to be accounted for in all games. This is a go-against angle, which can often prove as or more valuable than systems that suggest backing teams. For 2026, these teams are 67-57 for -9.24 units for an ROI of -7.5%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TEXAS (-114 at MIN), LA ANGELS (+102 at SEA), PHILADELPHIA (-174 vs TB)
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another go-against angle that does well. For the 2026 season, these teams are again struggling, 99-140 for -45.70 units and an ROI of -19.2%!
System Matches (FADE ALL): TORONTO (-136 vs CIN), BOSTON GAME 2 (-105 vs CHC), NY YANKEES GAME 1 (-125 vs BAL)
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid fade angle! For 2026, with a couple weeks left, they are now 162-244 start for -30.92 units (-7.6% ROI) after losing about 43.5 units over the last three months.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN FRANCISCO (+265 vs LAD), COLORADO (+194 at CWS)
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference between teams is <19%
In the last three regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 427-241 record, but for -131.5 units. This has been an ROI of -19.7%! The 2025 record was 120-59 for -13.3 units. The 2026 record is 118-62 for -19.89 units, ROI -11.1%!
System Matches (FADE ALL): MILWAUKEE (-192 vs STL), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-240 vs COL)
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. After a 133-43 finish for +25 units in the 2025 season, this angle will take a three-year record of 385-146 for +33.01 units (ROI 6.2%) into the 2026 campaign. The 2026 teams meeting this criteria are 50-22 but for -3.73 units so far.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): LA DODGERS (-337 at SF)
Overpriced better bullpen without big starting pitcher edge angle was 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be
selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 242-160, but for -117.36 units in the 2023-25 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -29.2%, very solid results. In 2025, these teams were measurably better but still lost -1.48 units for the season. The 2026 teams are off to a 43-27 start for -18.01 units, and an ROI of -25.7%!
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-192 vs STL)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings in the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season has been slower than usual, 324-393 for -24.39 units, ROI -3.4%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): NY METS (-109 at WSH), MINNESOTA (-105 vs TEX), LA ANGELS (+102 at SEA), TAMPA BAY (+144 at PHI), PITTSBURGH (-110 at DET), BOSTON GAME 1 (+105 vs CHC), BOSTON GAME 2 (-105 vs CHC)
Better bullpen small favorite teams in the -106 to -126 range are thriving in 2026
So far in 2026, small favorite teams in the -106 to -126 line range with a SM Bullpen Rating edge have fared quite well. Last season, this was about a -6% ROI angle. However, there is some foundation to the system in that with teams this closely matched together by the oddsmakers, it can often be good bullpen performance that separates the teams. For 2026 so far, these teams are 260-184 for +42.49 units, an ROI of +9.6%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (-118 at MIA), NY YANKEES GAME 1 (-126 vs BAL), NY YANKEES GAME 2 (-125 vs BAL)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle to extend winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-2025 regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they are off to a 183-225 start for -56.41 units (ROI -13.8%). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last three regular seasons with a record of 293-318 for -26.2 units. ROI on that was -4.3%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, and the 2026 results so far show a record of 85-108 for -23.84 units and a solid ROI of -12.4%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2-games – WASHINGTON (-110 vs NYM)
3+ games – BALTIMORE GAME 1 (+104 at NYY), ARIZONA (+114 at SD)
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, and it is now 171-193 for +5.54 units.
System Match (FADE): COLORADO (+194 vs CWS)
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #1: Teams starting a new series and riding at least a three-game winning streak are 543-433 for +46.15 units and an ROI of 4.7% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE GAME 1 (+105 at NYY), ARIZONA (+114 at SD)
MLB Series Betting System #3: Small road favorites of -111 to -130 have been a solid wager in the opening game of a new series, going 269-198 for +28.44 units and an ROI of 6.1% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO CUBS GAME 1 (-127 at BOS), ATLANTA (-125 at MIA), TEXAS (-114 at MIN)
MLB Series Betting System #6: Small home underdogs of -109 to +120 have been awful in the first game of a series when welcoming a new opponent in a multi-series homestand, going 164-206 for -39.81 units and an ROI of -10.8% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON GAME 1 (+105 vs CHC), DETROIT (-109 vs PIT), KANSAS CITY (+120 vs CLE)
MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 471-399 but for -90.06 units and an ROI of -10.4% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (FADE ALL): TORONTO (-143 vs CIN), SAN DIEGO (-137 vs AZ)
*WATCH FOR WASHINGTON vs NYM (-110 CURRENTLY)*
MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 485-433 record for +43.54 units and an ROI of 4.7% since the start of the 2022 season, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI (+118 at TOR), ARIZONA (+114 at SD)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 2248-2131 (51.3%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -282.47 units. This represents an ROI of -6.5%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-252 vs COL), ARIZONA (+114 at SD)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2,326-2,911 (44.4%) for -266.80 units and an ROI of -5.1% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO CUBS GAME 1 (-127 at BOS), PITTSBURGH (-110 at DET), ST LOUIS (+158 at MIL), NY METS (-109 at WSH), CLEVELAND (-145 at KC), LA DODGERS (-337 at SF)
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 696-580 (54.5%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +23.61 units, for an ROI of 1.9%.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON GAME 1 (-105 vs CHC)
Poor pitching on the season = good bet as underdog?
Teams who lost their last game after giving up 15+ hits and allow >= 4.6 RPG on the season have surprisingly been good wagers in the next game as underdogs in the -109 to +215 line range, sporting a record for 208-247 SU record for +40.06 units and an ROI of 8.8% since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): COLORADO (+194 at CWS)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Theoretically, green star “edges” come up when a team has an odds edge of 15 cents over the actual price. That is a legacy thing. However, this year I have recorded that a 10-cent edge is actually better, as teams with an edge of 10 cents against the actual odds have gone 664-668 for +6.94 units, good for +0.5% ROI.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: COLORADO +194 (+21 diff), BOSTON GAME 2 (+105 vs CHC), SAN FRANCISCO +265 (+19)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: NY YANKEES GAME 2 -126 (+22 diff), SEATTLE -123 (+17), TORONTO -136 (+13), ATLANTA -118 (+12), CLEVELAND -145 (+11)
Theoretically, the best “edges” come up when a score projection comes up with a full 1.0 run edge on either the Over or Under. On Over projections so far, when the simulation shows at least a 1.0 run edge, Overs are 31-20-2 for +8.00 units and an ROI of 15.7%.
Ratings Matches: CHC-BOS GAME 2 OVER 6.5 (+1.3), BAL-NYY GAME 2 OVER 6.5 (+1.0)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(955) ST LOUIS (77-82) at (956) MILWAUKEE (100-59)
Trend: STL is 59-27 (+20.59 units) on the run line as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY): ST LOUIS (+1.5 at MIL)
(957) ARIZONA (85-74) at (958) SAN DIEGO (89-70)
Trend: Under the total is 44-30-4 (+11.00 units) in AZ road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): AZ-SD (o/u at 7.5)
(959) LOS ANGELES-NL (97-62) at (960) SAN FRANCISCO (65-94)
Trend: Tarik Skubal’s teams are 34-13 (+11.86 units) in his last 47 night game starts
Trend Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-337 at SF)
(963) CLEVELAND (83-76) at (964) KANSAS CITY (68-91)
Trend: Under the total is 45-33 (+8.70 units) in CLE road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CLE-KC (o/u at 7)
(965) TEXAS (79-80) at (966) MINNESOTA (75-84)
Trend: TEX is 7-16 (-11.09 units) in the last 23 night games as a -130 favorite or less (including underdog) with starter Jacob deGrom
Trend Match (FADE): TEXAS (-114 at MIN)
Trend: Under the total is 13-4-1 (+8.75 units) when MIN is at home in the competitive line range of -125 to +130 with starter Joe Ryan since the start of the 2021 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): TEX-MIN (o/u at 7)
(967) HOUSTON (79-80) at (968) ATHLETICS (63-96)
Trend: Over the total is 47-28-3 (+16.20 units) in ATH home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): HOU-ATH (o/u at 9)
(969) LOS ANGELES-AL (61-98) at (970) SEATTLE (74-85)
Trend: LAA is 6-3 (+5.20 units) vs Seattle with starter Reid Detmers in his career
Trend Match (PLAY): LA ANGELS (+102 at SEA)
Trend: Over the total is 14-6-1 (+7.65 units) in road games with lower totals (o/u <= 8) with starter Reid Detmers in his career
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): LAA-SEA (o/u at 6.5)
(971) TAMPA BAY (96-63) at (972) PHILADELPHIA (87-72)
Trend: Freddy Peralta’s teams are 15-18 (-13.09 units) in his last 33 September/October game starts
Trend: PHI is 49-11 (+28.11 units) in the favorite line range of -148 or higher with starter Cristopher Sanchez since the start of the 2024 season
Trends Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-174 vs TB)
(975) CINCINNATI (74-85) at (976) TORONTO (77-82)
Trend: CIN is 20-22 (-8.47 units) with starter Nick Lodolo vs opponents with a losing record in the last few seasons
Trend Match (FADE): CINCINNATI (+113 at TOR)
Trend: Jose Soriano’s teams are 3-12 (-14.45 units) in his L15 HOME starts against non-AL West opponents with a losing record since the beginning of the 2024 season
Trend Match (FADE): TORONTO (-136 vs CIN)
(981) CHICAGO-NL (88-71) at (982) BOSTON (85-74) (DH Game #2)
Trend: David Peterson’s teams are 9-14 (-5.88 units) when he starts on the road within line range -129 to +129 since the beginning of the 2024 season
Trend Match (FADE): CHICAGO CUBS GAME 2 (-115 at BOS)
(983) BALTIMORE (78-81) at (984) NEW YORK-AL (92-67) (DH Game #1)
Trend: Trevor Rogers’ teams are 22-44 (-16.76 units) when he starts as an underdog within line range -109 to +154 since 2020
Trend Match (FADE): BALTIMORE GAME 1 (+105 at NYY)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Similar to #2, Majority handle groups have been steady when not too many of them hop on an underdog side since the beginning of the 2024 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 51-66%. These groups have gone 289-312 (48.1%) for a very minimal -1.8 units loss and an ROI of -0.3%. This represents an improvement of 8.2% on the overall numbers, and gives bettors a chance to stay afloat when they go against the grain.
System Match (CONSIDER): BALTIMORE GAME 2 (+105 at NYY)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: For as good as majority handle bettors have been on huge home favorites since the beginning of last season, they are equally as bad on heavy road favorites of -200 or higher. This group is 156-81 (65.8%) for -37.06 Units and an ROI of -15.6%. This has proven to be a brutal way to drain a bankroll quickly.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-337 at SF)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO CUBS GAME 1 (-127 at BOS), CHICAGO CUBS GAME 2 (-115 at BOS), PHILADELPHIA (-174 vs TB), PITTSBURGH (-110 at DET), TORONTO (-143 vs CIN), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-240 vs COL)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 360-329 (52.2%) for -118.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -17.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-174 vs TB)
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NY YANKEES
Momentum after series vs. TAMPA BAY: 28-11 (71.8%) +11.61 units, ROI: 29.8%
Trend Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES GAME 1 (-125 vs BAL)
SAN DIEGO
Letdown after series vs. LA DODGERS: 19-23 (45.2%) -13.06 units, ROI: -31.1%
Trend Match (FADE): SAN DIEGO (-137 vs AZ)
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