West Virginia Mountaineers:
Neal Brown was in a genuine hot seat heading into the 2023 season. He had gone 22-25 in his first four seasons in Morgantown, winning no more than six games in a single season. However, after a blowout loss to Penn State, West Virginia would finish the season 9-3 SU/8-4 ATS with a bowl win over North Carolina. The Mountaineers bring back a majority of their offense in 2024 and Brown has expectations of another winning season.
Offense
Garrett Greene’s play at quarterback was a large reason why West Virginia ended the season the way it did. The senior signal-caller was injured Week 3 and missed the win over Texas Tech, but when he was on the field, he was great. Greene posted a career-best 83.3 PFF passing grade and accounted for 3,172 yards and 29 touchdowns, all while turning the ball over just seven times. Greene’s size makes him an injury risk, but he is clearly a weapon for the Mountaineers.
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West Virginia finished 20th in EPA per rush last season. Greene was obviously a big part of that, but so, too, was the Mountaineers’ offensive line. A majority of that line returns, including preseason All-Big 12 LT Wyatt Millum, LG Thomas Rimac and C Brandon Yates. In fact, Phil Steele ranks this group as his 11th-best offensive line in the country.
The skill positions are in a fine place as well. Leading rusher Jahiem White (7.7 yards per carry) returns, as do six of the top seven receivers from 2023. The Mountaineers were 44th in EPA per dropback last season. Greene is somewhat limited as a passer, so we can expect that to be the weakest facet of this group. Still, this should be one of the best ground games in the country once more.
Defense
West Virginia was extremely poor last season on this side of the ball. It finished 104th in opponent EPA per play (0.126) and allowed 5.8 yards per play. Only five players return from that group, something that could be a positive considering how poorly they performed in 2023.
Secondary is one of the biggest position group rebuilds for Brown this season. Three transfers are expected to start in the defensive backfield. Aubrey Burks was the team’s highest-graded defender by PFF and he returns, but he moves from safety to linebacker. This group could be just as poor as the group that finished 91st in opponent EPA per dropback.
The front seven is in slightly better condition with Burks moving up and two starters back along the defensive line. This group might not be worse than it was in 2023, but it is unlikely to make great strides.
Outlook
West Virginia could be the fly in the ointment for Big 12 title contenders this season. The Mountaineers should have one of the better offenses in the conference, and they get their crack at nearly every top team. They face a brutal schedule that might not lead to an improvement in wins, but this team will likely have its say as to which program wins the Big 12 in 2024.
Pick: Under 6.5 Wins
