Today a new week begins with a loaded 15-game MLB slate, highlighted by “Marathon Monday” in Boston. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a handful of games today.
Top MLB Resources:
6:40 p.m. ET: Texas Rangers at Detroit Tigers (-115, 8.5)
The Rangers (8-8) just dropped two of three against the Astros, losing 8-5 on Sunday as -105 road dogs. On the other hand, the Tigers (9-6) just split a four-game set against the Twins, winning yesterday’s finale 4-3 as -125 home favorites. In tonight’s series opener, the Rangers start Michael Lorenzen, who is making his season debut. Lorenzen went 9-9 with a 4.18 ERA in 2023 for the Tigers and Phillies. The Tigers hand the ball to fellow righty Reese Olson (0-1, 5.40 ERA). This line opened with Texas listed as a -120 road favorite and Detroit a +105 home dog. The public is all over the Rangers laying short chalk. However, despite 73% of moneyline backs backing Texas, we’ve seen this line completely flip to Tigers -115. This indicates sharp “dog to favorite” reverse line movement on Detroit, with pros buying low on the unpopular home team. Detroit has the better pitching staff, sporting a team ERA of 3.14 vs 4.12. This is also a schedule spot system match, as Texas is playing their fourth straight road game while Detroit is playing their fifth straight home game. Sharps also hit the under as soon it was available, dropping the total from 9 to 8.5. The under is receiving 47% of bets but 54% of dollars, a sharp contrarian bet split.
6:50 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Angels at Tampa Bay Rays (-165, 8)
The Angels (7-8) just lost two of three against the Red Sox, losing 5-4 yesterday as +115 road dogs. Meanwhile, the Rays (9-7) just took two of three against the Giants, rolling 9-4 yesterday as -105 home dogs. In tonight’s series opener, the Angels trot out lefty Patrick Sandoval (1-2, 6.57 ERA) and the Rays counter with righty Zach Eflin (1-2, 6.35 ERA). This line opened with Tampa Bay listed as a -150 home favorite and Los Angeles a +135 road dog. Sharps have gotten down hard on the Rays, steaming Tampa Bay up from -150 to -165. The Rays are receiving roughly 80% of moneyline bets and dollars, indicating lopsided action in their favor from both Pros and Joes. Tampa Bay has the better bats, hitting .251 vs .240 for Los Angeles. The Rays have value as a non-division favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the better team who is expected to win. Tampa Bay also has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the better team as well. Pros hit the under, dropping the total from 8.5 to 8. This movement is notable because 71% of bets are taking the over, yet the total fell, indicating sharp under action.
7:10 p.m. ET: Pittsburgh Pirates at New York Mets (-125, 8.5)
The Pirates (11-5) just split a four-game series against the Phillies, winning 9-2 yesterday as +165 road dogs. On the flip side, the Mets (7-8) just took two of three against the Royals, winning 2-1 yesterday as -110 home favorites. In tonight’s series opener, the Pirates go with lefty Martin Perez (1-0, 1.89 ERA) and the Mets rebuttal with righty Adrian Houser (0-1, 5.40 ERA). This line opened with New York listed as a -115 home favorite and Pittsburgh a +105 road dog. The public thinks the wrong team is favored and they’re rushing to the window to grab the plus money with Pittsburgh, who has the far better won-loss record. However, despite 71% of moneyline bets backing the Pirates, we’ve actually seen this line move further toward the Mets -115 to -125. This signals sharp reverse line movement on New York, with pros fading the trendy dog Pirates. The Mets are only receiving 29% of moneyline bets but 37% of moneyline dollars, a sharp contrarian bet split. After a brutal 0-5 start, New York is now 7-3 over their last ten games.
7:40 p.m. ET: San Diego Padres at Milwaukee Brewers (-115, 8.5)
The Padres (9-9) just took two of three against the Dodgers, winning 6-3 on Sunday Night Baseball as +140 road dogs. Similarly, the Brewers (10-4) just took two of three against the Orioles but lost yesterday’s series finale 6-4 as +195 road dogs. In tonight’s series opener, the Padres send out righty Joe Musgrove (1-2, 6.87 ERA) and the Brewers tap fellow righty Joe Ross (1-0, 1.80 ERA). This line opened with San Diego listed as a -125 road favorite and Milwaukee a +115 home dog. Sharps have gotten down hard on Milwaukee, flipping the Brewers from a +115 dog to -115 favorite. In other words, we are seeing sharp “dog to favorite” line movement on Milwaukee. The Brewers are receiving 68% of moneyline bets but 80% of moneyline dollars, indicating modest public support but also respected sharp action in the form a “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. Favorites off a loss, like the Brewers here, are 63-37 (63%) this season with a 7% ROI. Milwaukee has the better bats (hitting .290 vs .258) and better pitching staff (team ERA 3.85 vs 4.24). This is also a fade spot of San Diego, who played the late Sunday Night Baseball game last night and then have to travel on a quick turnaround and play again today.
