Today the weekend wraps up with a loaded slate of 15 MLB games. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every game using our VSiN Betting Splits.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of games today.
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1:40 p.m. ET: Oakland Athletics at Detroit Tigers (-185, 8)
This is the rubber match of a three-game series. The Tigers (6-2) won the opener 5-4 as -245 home favorites and then the Athletics (2-7) bounced back with a 4-0 win yesterday, cashing as +125 road dogs. In this afternoon’s series finale, Oakland hands the ball to righty Joe Boyle (0-1, 23.63 ERA) and Detroit counter with fellow righty Jack Flaherty (0-0, 1.50 ERA). This line opened with the Tigers listed as a -165 home favorite and the Athletics a +150 road dog. Sharps aren’t scared off by the expensive price and they’ve steamed the Tigers up from -165 to -185. Detroit is receiving 93% of moneyline bets and 96% of moneyline dollars, signaling lopsided support from both sharps and the betting public. The Tigers have the better batting average (.209 vs .192) and better team pitching (ERA 2.51 vs 4.61). Detroit also has value as a non-division favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the “better” team, as well as correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team. Chad Fairchild, the home plate ump, is 55% to the home team, historically. Flaherty went 6 innings giving up just one run and striking out nine in his season debut against the White Sox, winning 3-2. Meanwhile, Boyle gave up 7 runs in just 2.2 innings in a 9-0 loss to the Red Sox his first time out. The Tigers are +7 in run differential. The Athletics are -26.
2:10 p.m. ET: Seattle Mariners at Milwaukee Brewers (-130, 9)
This is the rubber match of a three-game series. The Brewers (5-2) took the opener 6-5 as -125 home favorites. Then the Mariners (4-5) won Saturday’s rematch 5-3 as +100 road dogs. In this afternoon’s Interleague Series finale, Seattle starts righty Emerson Hancock (1-0, 5.06 ERA) while Milwaukee goes with fellow righty Colin Rea (1-0, 1.80 ERA). This line opened with the Brewers listed as a -125 home favorite and the Mariners a +115 road dog. Sharps seem to think this opener was a bit low and have jumped on Milwaukee laying short chalk, driving the Brewers up from -125 to -130. Milwaukee is receiving 75% of moneyline bets and 78% of moneyline dollars, signaling one-sided Pro and Joe action in their favor. The Brewers have the better bats, hitting .253 vs .211 for the Mariners. Milwaukee has the betting pitching staff as well, sporting a 3.71 team ERA compared to 4.09 for Seattle. The Brewers have value as an Interleague favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the “better” team based upon the favorite designation. Mike Muchlinski, the home plate ump, is 54% to the home team, historically. Rea went 5 innings and gave up just one run in a 4-1 win over the Mets in his first start of the season. Milwaukee is +2 in run differential. Seattle is -13.
2:15 p.m. ET: Miami Marlins at St. Louis Cardinals (-145, 9)
The Cardinals (5-4) have taken the first two games of this three-game series, winning the opener 8-5 as -142 home favorites and then winning again on Saturday 3-1 as -148 home favorites. In this afternoon’s series finale, the Marlins (0-9) start righty Max Meyer (0-0, 3.60 ERA) and the Cardinals go with fellow righty Kyle Gibson (1-0, 2.57 ERA). This line opened with St. Louis listed as a -135 home favorite and Miami a +115 road dog. Pros are banking on the Cardinals to complete the sweep and the Marlins to remain winless, steaming St. Louis up from -135 to -145. The Cardinals are receiving more than 80% of moneyline bets, indicating lopsided support in their favor. St. Louis has the better bats (hitting .229 vs .208) and better team pitching (ERA 4.15 VS 5.42). The Cardinals have value as a non-division favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the “better” team. St. Louis is +2 in run differential while Miami is -32, the second worst in MLB trailing only the Rockies. Sharps hit the over as soon as it opened, driving the total up from 8.5 to 9. The over is receiving 35% of bets but 78% of money, a massive sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. The forecast calls for mid 60s with 15 MPH winds blowing out to left center at Busch Stadium.
