San Diego Padres 2024 preview
Almost only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades. One of my father’s favorite expressions certainly applies to the San Diego Padres of last season. They were very close to being a really good team. They finished just 82-80 with a +104 run differential. That was a better run differential than the Phillies, Brewers, Blue Jays, and Diamondbacks among playoff teams. The Padres had the fewest wins among teams with a positive run differential.
They were right there, but fell on the wrong side of luck. By Pythagorean Win-Loss, a standings metric derived from run differential, they finished 10 games worse than they should have. By BaseRuns, a context-neutral standings metrics using individual outcomes to calculate runs scored and runs allowed, the Padres were nine games worse than they should have been.
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But, tell that to a fan base. Tell that to the players. “Hey, guys, we actually profiled as a 91 or 92-win team!” Some of the more numbers-savvy players and fans may understand, but sports are a bottom-line business and the bottom line is that a team constructed to go head-to-head with the Dodgers finished 18 games behind them.
How does that happen? Well, the Padres were 9-23 in one-run games and 2-12 in extra-inning games. Of course, they also lost nine of 13 to the Dodgers, so that added five games to the standings, but still.
This is a huge year for AJ Preller, whose job is very much on the chopping block if this season’s expectations are not met at the very least and preferably exceeded.
2024 San Diego Padres Odds
(odds from DraftKings as of Mar. 16)
World Series: +5000
NL Pennant: +2500
NL West: +1100
Win Total: 83.5 (+100/-120)
Make Playoffs: Yes +155 / No -190
San Diego Padres Preview: Offense
While the losses of Blake Snell and Josh Hader are big and will rightfully be discussed later, the absence of Juan Soto is the biggest difference between last year’s Padres and this year’s group. This should still be a decent offense without him, especially if top prospect Jackson Merrill winds up being an impact player, but the ceiling is definitely lowered without Soto.
The Padres finished seventh in wRC+, which is the metric you want to use with them because Petco Park punishes offense to such a high degree. You have to use park-adjusted stats with them because of the tough hitting conditions for 81/162 games. It is also imperative to think about this year’s offense without Soto, who easily led the way with a 155 wRC+ and the highest OBP on the team by 43 points.
Soto was on base 41% of the time, led the team with 35 homers and 109 RBI, and walked at an 18.6% clip. Simply replacing a guy like that is impossible. While there is hope for guys like Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr. to have more productive seasons, Soto’s on-base skills are going to be sorely missed. He drew 132 walks in 708 PA. The Padres led the league with a 10.6% BB%. Take away Soto’s walks and the Padres had a 9.5% BB%, which would’ve ranked tied for fifth, instead of leading baseball by 0.4%.
That’s not to say that the guy replacing Soto won’t walk at all, but the Padres were 20th in batting average, but seventh in OBP because of their ability to draw free passes. A lot of advanced metrics rely heavily on on-base percentage or the more advanced variant, wOBA, or weighted on-base average. The entire goal as a hitter is not to make an out, so walks are very valuable.
It isn’t just Soto who contributed in the BB% department. Matt Carpenter had a 17.3% BB% in 237 PA and he’s gone. Trent Grisham had a 13.5% BB% and he’s gone. The top returnee is Ha-Seong Kim, who came in at 12%. He is the only returnee to be in the top 10 in PA with a double-digit BB%.
So, there are two ways to look at this. The first is that the Padres will be more of a contact-oriented lineup. With the talent of their roster, that may not be a bad thing. Guys like Xander Bogaerts, Tatis, and Machado are all going to post above average numbers. But, they all need to perform at a higher level. Bogaerts posted a 120 wRC+, his lowest mark since 2017. Tatis had a 113 wRC+ after posting marks in the 150s in each of his first three MLB seasons, though it is great that he stayed healthy and played 141 games. Machado had a 114 wRC+ while battling injury for his lowest output since 2019.
The second is that this could provide a real big disadvantage given the home ballpark. In looking at Statcast’s Three-Year Park Factors, Petco Park is only higher than T-Mobile Park in Seattle for offense. It’s even worse than Oakland Coliseum, which is hard to do. The Padres actually hit better at home last season, posting a .249/.336/.420 slash compared to a .238/.323/.407 slash on the road. I’m not sure I’d expect that to be the case again. They also had a 10.9% BB% at home compared to a 10.2% BB% on the road.
There are some holes in this lineup. The outfield positions are pretty wide-open beyond Tatis and the bench depth is lacking. San Diego really needs a bounce back from Jake Cronenworth, who posted a 92 wRC+ after having a 110 in 2022 and a 117 in 2021. I’m not surprised he fell off, as his contact quality leaves a lot to be desired.
This offense is definitely worse. If Tatis, Machado, and Bogaerts all rebound in their own ways, it will help offset a little bit of the loss of Soto, but this is a team that is very top-heavy on offense and will be more reliant on pitching and defense.
San Diego Padres Preview: Pitching
It sure looks like Preller and his staff are aware of that fact. After deciding to let the reigning NL Cy Young Award winner test his luck in free agency, the Padres looked a little thin in the rotation. Michael King was one of the main pieces of the Soto trade with the Yankees, but he hasn’t thrown more than 104.2 innings at the MLB level. Jhony Brito, another piece of that transaction puzzle, had a 4.28 ERA with a 4.74 FIP in his first MLB season over 90.1 innings.
As solid as Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove are, focusing on another arm seemed like a good idea and the Padres pulled the trigger on the Cease trade in mid-March. Cease, as I wrote about in my White Sox preview, probably deserved a much better fate last season with a 4.58 ERA and a 3.72 FIP over 177 innings. He allowed a career-worst .330 BABIP and had a 69.4% LOB%. He gets a massive upgrade on the defensive front here.
He also gets a ballpark upgrade. Guaranteed Rate Field rated as an average offensive park over the last three seasons. As mentioned above, Petco is about the worst park for offense in the league. The Padres made a solid move here. Cease has stayed healthy, which is important with Darvish turning 38 in August and Musgrove’s ailments of last season on the brain. He only pitched 97.1 innings across 17 starts. He was really effective and healthy throughout 2021-22, but Preller and the coaching staff had to have concerns about where all the innings would come from.
King only worked 40.1 innings as a starter last season and Brito may not be able to stick in the rotation. Randy Vasquez, knuckleballer Matt Waldron, Adrian Morejon, Luis Patino and Jay Groome are among the candidates to start games this season. I like the depth, but I’m not sure how many of those guys will be any better than league average.
The Padres were second in ERA, but 11th in FIP last season. The park factor and the defense are well-represented in their pitching numbers from last season, especially the 75.6% LOB%. Unfortunately, the top three in fWAR are all gone in Snell, Seth Lugo, and Michael Wacha. Hader also had a 1.28 ERA with a 2.69 FIP over 56.1 innings. Nick Martinez was also a stellar arm with a 3.43 ERA and a 3.92 FIP over 110.1 innings of work.
I think it will be underappreciated what Lugo and Wacha did last season. Lugo had a 3.57 ERA over 146.1 innings and Wacha had a 3.22 ERA over 134.1 innings. They both got a little lucky on the LOB% side, as evidenced by 3.83 and 3.89 FIPs, respectively, but they combined for 5.4 fWAR. They are teammates again, but with the Royals.
So, the Padres have a lot of innings and some pretty high-level innings at that to replace. Musgrove, who had a 3.05 ERA with a 3.52 FIP in his 17 starts, will make up some of that slack if he’s healthy. Darvish isn’t starting the year with the World Baseball Classic this time around, so hopefully that will help him lock in from the start.
From a bullpen standpoint, the Padres will rely heavily on some guys not used to the high-leverage limelight. They signed Yuki Matsui out of Japan after he posted a 2.43 ERA in 704 career innings in the NPB. Robert Suarez was excellent in 2022, but limited to just 27.2 innings in 2023. Enyel De Los Santos slides in for Scott Barlow after a trade with the Guardians. Wandy Peralta is a well-known arm, but Woo-Suk Go from the Korean Baseball Organization is also in this bullpen, along with some other uncertain arms.
This pitching staff has a really high floor because of the team defense and the park factor, but I see some areas of concern for sure.
San Diego Padres Player to Watch
SP Michael King
Injuries and ineffectiveness forced the Yankees to put King in the rotation, where he was quite good late in the year. He was mostly a starter in the minor leagues, though he didn’t have many large sample sizes at one stop. He made his MLB debut in 2019 for the Yankees with one appearance and then worked 26.2 innings during the COVID year before cracking the roster full-time.
He actually had a higher K% and a lower BB% as a starter than he did as a reliever last season. He also allowed less pulled contact and had a lower HR/FB%. It seems like being able to work deeper into his arsenal was beneficial. He even worked seven innings with 13 strikeouts in a start against the Blue Jays. He’s a Statcast darling, with tons of above average metrics and he did okay on the velocity front as a starter as well. I think he has the chance to be extremely good for the Padres, but I will be interested to see how he handles the increased workload.
San Diego Padres Season Win Total Odds & Prediction
I feel like I have a lot of concerns about the Padres. They’ll be subject to the BABIP gods on offense and the health gods on the pitching side. A lot of teams fit those criteria, but not to the extreme that the Padres do with their losses from last season and the composition of the roster. The floor is high here because of the star power and the elite defensive numbers that they’ll put together, though they need Machado to get healthy enough to play 3B to be at their best.
The height of the ceiling remains to be seen. I think there’s a very realistic possibility that the bad luck from last season corrects to some degree and the Padres are a playoff threat. I also see a division that is pretty solid outside of the doormat Rockies and it isn’t a stretch to see a huge loss like Soto have such a negative impact that this is a .500ish team.
I don’t have a really strong opinion, but I lean towards the Padres being better than their win total line suggests.
Lean: Over 83.5
Get all of our preseason coverage in the 2024 MLB Betting Guide.
