The following NBA betting trends are featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Thursday, April 4, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, moneylines, and totals.

 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. These systems have been updated to show midseason records as well.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 115-88 ATS (56.6%) last season. For this season so far, that group is 88-83 ATS (51.5%). If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW YORK, MIAMI

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wager. When 65% or more of the handle was on the road side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. This year, that group has followed up with a record of 78-71 ATS (52.3%). Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. While the record has dropped a bit, the 1-1/2-year mark is still very profitable.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): GOLDEN STATE, DENVER

At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it’s safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.

The following two systems show some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: We saw earlier that the supermajority benchmark for handle success on ATS was wagers at 63%. It is a touch higher and a completely opposite result when analyzing number of bets. When 69% or more of the number of bets was on a side of an ATS wager (home or road), this supermajority group has gone just 92-114 ATS (44.7%) this season, well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Matches (FADE): DENVER

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA Non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK majority number of bets groups have been successful, as they are 225-199 ATS (52.8%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 50% success rate, they were 2.8% improved on these rarer contests.
System Matches (PLAY): NEW YORK

The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on money line wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority handle was on underdogs for a moneyline wager, this majority group has struggled this season, going 16-28 for -9.31 units and an R.O.I. of -21.2%. This doesn’t seem to be a real significant amount, but when compared to the overall wins of +27.4 units, it represents a significant cut out of the profits. Favorite betting has certainly prevailed so far in 2023-24.
System Matches (FADE): PHILADELPHIA ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #10: The success of double-digit favorites this season in winning games outright has clearly paid off for NBA bettors. When analyzing majority handle on games in 2023-24 with double-digit point spreads, majority moneyline bettors have backed the favorite in 87 of 89 games, going 80-7 SU for +33.6 units, an R.O.I. of 38.6%. We will recommend backing these teams until something changes, as this can be a very risky strategy.
System Matches (PLAY): DALLAS ML

These last two systems involve totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when less than 60% of handle bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of them favored that total option over the last year-and-a-half, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it “as much”, regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 520 of about 1400 games fit this criteria, but the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 287-231-2, good for 55.4%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): SAC-NYK, ATL-DAL, GSW-HOU

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total this season has been a touch over 230. In NBA games with extremely low totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors are an impressive 49-25 (66.2%), whole majority number of bets groups are a bit worse but still strong at 43-31 (58.1%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in SAC-NYK, PLAY OVER in PHI-MIA

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!

NO QUALIFYING GENERAL SCHEDULING SITUATIONS TODAY

Applying Top ‘23-24 NBA Situational Records for the Rest of Season

There is obviously still a lot to be decided in terms of divisional races and which teams will or will not qualify for the postseason. At this point, with over 50 games in the books, we know a lot about the teams, specifically what scheduling situations they have been best or worst at so far in the 2023-24 season. With that in mind, I figured I’d share what have been 17 of the most definitive performance records in various scheduling situations so far and where these NBA betting trends will apply the rest of the way.

ATLANTA is 7-13 SU and 5-15 ATS (20%) versus teams with current Steve Makinen Power Ratings of 95-99.5.
4/4 at Dallas
System Match: FADE ATLANTA (+12 at DAL)

NEW YORK has gone 11-3 Under the total (78.6%) at home this season when returning from a road trip in their prior game.
4/4 vs. Sacramento
System Match: PLAY UNDER in SAC-NYK (o/u at 213.5)

The following are some of the top team-specific NBA betting trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

* GOLDEN STATE is 26-17 Over the total in the 3rd Straight Road game scenario over the last two seasons
4/4: Over the total in HOUSTON-GOLDEN STATE
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 228)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based upon some various team strength indicator or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 162-31 SU but just 82-108-3 ATS (43.2%) over the last two seasons.
System Matches: FADE DALLAS (-12 vs ATL)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last three seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 80-64 (55.6%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 153-125 (55%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 203-143 (58.7%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in ATL-DAL (o/u at 227.5)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These NBA betting trend systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last 4+ seasons unless noted.

NO QUALIFYING EXTREME STATS SYSTEMS TODAY

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. HOUSTON +4 (+2.5), 2. LA CLIPPERS +4 (+2.2), 3. SACRAMENTO +3 (+1.3)

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIAMI -2 (+2.1), 2. DALLAS -12 (+0.8)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LA CLIPPERS +4 (+4.8), 2. HOUSTON +4 (+3.3), 3. SACRAMENTO +3 (+1.6)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: MIAMI -2 (+2.2)

Today’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. GSW-HOU OVER 228 (+1.3), 2. SAC-NYK OVER 213.5 (+1.2)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHI-MIA UNDER 210 (-4.4), 2. DEN-LAC UNDER 221.5 (-2.1), 3. ATL-DAL UNDER 228 (-1.9)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1(tie). HOUSTON +4 (+2.6) and LA CLIPPERS +4 (+2.6), 3. SACRAMENTO +3 (+2.3)

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIAMI -2 (+1.5), 2. DALLAS -12 (+1.0)

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: GSW-HOU OVER 228 (+0.8)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHI-MIA UNDER 210 (-3.9), 2. DEN-LAC UNDER 221.5 (-3.0), 3. ATL-DAL UNDER 228 (-2.3)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(519) ATLANTA at (520) DALLAS
* Underdogs have won the last four games of the ATL-DAL series
System Match: PLAY ATLANTA ATS

(521) PHILADELPHIA at (522) MIAMI
* Under the total is 6-2 in the last eight of the PHI-MIA series
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total

(523) SACRAMENTO at (524) NEW YORK
* NEW YORK has won the last three ATS hosting Sacramento
System Match: PLAY NEW YORK ATS

(525) GOLDEN STATE at (526) HOUSTON
* GOLDEN STATE is 5-1 ATS in the last six at Houston
System Match: PLAY GOLDEN STATE ATS

(527) DENVER at (528) LA CLIPPERS
* Under the total is 7-0-1 in the last eight of the DEN-LAC series in Los Angeles
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total

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