Farmers Insurance Open
History was made at The American Express on Sunday when 20-year-old University of Alabama sophomore Nick Dunlap became the first amateur golfer to win a PGA Tour event since 1991 when Phil Mickelson won the Tucson Open.
Dunlap sank a birdie putt at the par-5 16th to equal the lead of Sam Burns at the Pete Dye Stadium Course in La Quinta, Calif. Then, Burns found the water off the tee at the par-3 17th. Dunlap was on the green 35 feet from the hole and made par while Burns came out with a double bogey.
Christiaan Bezuidenhout finished runner-up but did earn the first-place $1.5 million check. While Dunlap did not receive the prize money, he secured his PGA Tour card for two years. He has yet to decide whether to accept the membership or continue his eligibility at Alabama.
Last year, Dunlap became the only player other than Tiger Woods to claim both titles of U.S. Junior Amateur and U.S. Amateur, which currently provides him exemptions into the Masters, U.S. Open and British Open.
Dunlap continued the run of long shots to win during this 2024 PGA Tour season at 400-1. After the life-changing victory, Dunlap elected to withdraw from this week’s event and return to Alabama.
The West Coast Swing continues in San Diego with the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines Golf Course, which marks the first test of the 2024 season after three weeks of relatively easy courses. Max Homa (12-1) is back to defend his title but is the third choice on the odds board. San Diego native Xander Schauffele (9-1), runner-up here in 2021, finished T-3 at The American Express and heads the front on the odds board. Collin Morikawa (12-1) has finished third (2023) and fourth (2021) here in his last two appearances.
Patrick Cantlay (12-1) began Sunday’s final round in the top 10 but shot a miserable 4-over round of 76 to finish T-52.
Those priced in the 22- to 25-1 range include Ludvig Åberg, Sungjae Im (who has finished fourth and sixth here the last two years), Min Woo Lee and two-time Farmers Insurance Open champion (2015, 2018) Jason Day.
Tony Finau (28-1) has five top-10 finishes here in the last seven years, including a runner-up in 2021.
Keegan Bradley (33-1) lost in a playoff two weeks ago at the Sony Open in Hawaii to finish runner-up, which was the same position he finished here last year behind Homa.
Sahith Theegala (40-1) was runner-up in the season opener at The Sentry and he finished fourth here last year.
Aside from the aforementioned Homa and Day, other former winners at Torrey Pines in this week’s field include Luke List (80-1), Justin Rose (55-1), Brandt Snedeker (600-1) and Scott Stallings (200-1).
The Event
The Farmers Insurance Open was founded in 1952 as the San Diego Open and was initially played at the San Diego Country Club in Chula Vista. The event is organized by the Century Club of San Diego. The tournament was played at several courses in the San Diego area before finding a permanent home at Torrey Pines Golf Course in 1968. Torrey Pines has hosted a PGA Tour event ever since. This event also had a celebrity host for many years as entertainer Andy Williams served in that role from 1968 to 1988. The dominant player in this event’s history is Tiger Woods, who has won this event seven times (1999, 2003, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2013) and that doesn’t include his 2008 U.S. Open championship. Longtime San Diego resident Phil Mickelson is the only player other than Tiger to win this event more than twice (1993, 2000, 2001). Mickelson and J.C. Snead (1975, 1976) are the only players to win this event in consecutive years. Arnold Palmer (1957, 1961) and Tom Watson (1977, 1980) are also multiple-time winners here. This event is also notable because Jack Nicklaus never won here, but he was part of a memorable finish in 1982 as he shot a final-round 64 to fall one shot short of eventual winner Johnny Miller.
This week’s field is made up of 156 players and the cut will be the top 65 and ties for the weekend.
In addition, like last year, the tournament will be played on Wednesday-Saturday instead of the typical Thursday-Sunday due to the PGA Tour, and especially CBS, not wanting to oppose the NFL’s AFC and NFC Championship Games.
The Field
This is the last chance for players to earn a spot in next week’s AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. The top five FedExCup points earners from the Sony Open, The American Express and this week’s Farmers Insurance Open will gain entry into next week’s “Signature Event.”
The Courses
The Torrey Pines Golf Course in La Jolla is a 36-hole public course owned by the City of San Diego. Two courses host the event. The North Course and South Course each host the first two rounds with each player playing both courses before the South Course takes over for the final 36 holes. The South Course, which was renovated in 2019 by Rees Jones before the 2021 U.S. Open, is now the longest annual course on the PGA Tour at 7,765 yards. Both courses play at a par 72, but the South Course is the more difficult as the North Course is just 7,258 yards. The South Course is not only 450 yards longer but plays on average close to two strokes higher. The fairways (fifth narrowest on tour at 28 square feet average) and rough on the South Course are Kikuyugrass but with a Ryegrass overseed, while the Tom Weiskopf-redesigned North Course has Ryegrass overseed fairways and a Rye and Kikuyugrass rough mixture. The South Course greens (fifth smallest on tour at 5,000 square feet) are faster (12.5 stimpmeter) Poa Annua, while the North Course greens are slower (12 stimpmeter) and larger (6,000 square feet) Bentgrass.
Torrey Pines South played as the seventh-most difficult course last season with an average round score of 72.72 (+0.72 over par). It could be even more difficult this year as the rough is a half-inch longer (four inches) to start the tournament than in past years. Winter rain makes the already thicker rough play tougher and will make the course play even longer as well. There are 82 bunkers on the course and only one water danger hole on the layout.
The South Course record is 62 set by Tiger Woods (third round, 1999).
Correlated courses to the South Course include Glen Abbey, Muirfield Village, Riviera, Augusta National, Quail Hollow, Chapultepec, Olympia Fields and Bethpage Black.
Torrey Pines North played as the eighth-easiest course on tour last year with an average round score of 70.15 (-1.85). It could be more difficult this year as the rough is expected to be the same as on the South Course. The North Course is a more tree-lined layout that has just 42 bunkers (third fewest on tour) and zero water danger holes. Many of the greens are open-fronted which allows for bump-and-run type shots. Greens are Bentgrass and they run very pure.
The course record on the redesigned North Course is 62 set by Jon Rahm (first round, 2019), Ryan Palmer (second round, 2020), again in 2022 by Adam Schenk and Alex Smalley (both in second round).
Correlated courses to the North Course include Riviera, Chapultepec, Silverado, TPC Scottsdale and Detroit Golf Club.
Here are the score averages in recent years on the North and South Courses
| Year | North Course | South Course | Difference |
| 2023 | 70.15 (-1.85) | 72.72 (+0.72) | +2.57 |
| 2022 | 70.15 (-1.85) | 72.55 (+0.55) | +2.40 |
| 2021 | 70.13 (-1.87) | 73.34 (+1.34) | +3.21 |
| 2020 | 70.58 (-1.42) | 72.53 (+0.53) | +1.95 |
| 2019 | 69.84 (-2.16) | 71.73 (-0.27) | +1.89 |
| 2018 | 71.41 (-0.59) | 72.81 (+0.81) | +1.40 |
| 2017 | 71.28 (-0.72) | 72.77 (+0.77) | +1.49 |
| 2016 | 70.93 (-1.07) | 74.50 (+2.50) | +3.57 |
| 2015 | 70.23 (-1.77) | 73.52 (+1.52) | +3.29 |
| 2014 | 70.24 (-1.76) | 73.80 (+1.80) | +3.56 |
| 2013 | 70.67 (-1.33) | 72.66 (+0.66) | +1.99 |
| 2012 | 69.55 (-2.45) | 72.36 (+0.36) | +2.81 |
While the recent Weiskopf redesign has by and large made the North Course slightly more difficult, you can see that players must take advantage of the easier layout to put themselves into contention here.
From 2011 to 2018, all Farmers Insurance Open winners started on the more difficult South Course on Thursday and then played the North Course on Friday. However, this trend was brought to a screeching halt in 2019 when Justin Rose shot 9 under (63) on the North Course in the Thursday round and then ran away with the event. In 2020, Marc Leishman began on the North Course with a 4-under (68) round and Patrick Reed started with an 8-under (64) on the North in 2021. Luke List began the 2022 event on the South Course with a 7-under (65), so it looks like any draw bias has at least been temporarily eliminated. Last year, Sam Ryder, Aaron Rai, and Brett Grant all began by shooting 8 under (64) on the North Course.
Recent History/Winners
2023: Max Homa (-13/275); 22-1
2022: Luke List (-15/273); 90-1*
2021: Patrick Reed (-14/274); 25-1
2020: Marc Leishman (-15/273); 55-1
2019: Justin Rose (-21/267); 14-1
2018: Jason Day (-10/278); 22-1**
2017: Jon Rahm (-13/275); 55-1
2016: Brandt Snedeker (-6/282); 18-1
2015: Jason Day (-9/279); 14-1***
2014: Scott Stallings (-9/279); 250-1
2013: Tiger Woods (-14/274); 15-2
2012: Brandt Snedeker (-16/272); 22-1****
2011: Bubba Watson (-16/272); 66-1
2010: Ben Crane (-13/275); 80-1
Playoff win over Will Zalatoris – *
Playoff win over Alex Noren and Ryan Palmer – **
Playoff win over Harris English, JB Holmes and Scott Stallings – ***
Playoff win over Kyle Stanley – ****
Trends and Angles
Here are some recent Farmers Insurance Open winning trends:
- 13 of the last 15 winners had made at least one start in the calendar year.
- 20 of the last 22 winners were age 27 or older.
- 14 of the last 19 winners were ranked in the top 33 of the OWGR.
- 26 of the last 30 winners had at least four previous career wins.
- 20 of the last 22 winners had played in at least five previous Farmers Insurance Open events.
- 17 of the last 19 winners had at least one previous Farmers Insurance Open top-10 finish.
Statistical Analysis
Bombers (Luke List, Jon Rahm, Tiger Woods, Scott Stallings, Justin Rose, Bubba Watson) and longish hitters off the tee have certainly won their fair share here, but so have shorter to mid-range hitters with elite short games (Brandt Snedeker, Patrick Reed, Jason Day, Ben Crane). The length of the course is what it is, but the thick rough, narrower fairways, thick marine layer and cool January air also make an overall game off the tee, not just distance, paramount for success here.
Total Driving equals Driving Distance plus Driving Accuracy rank.
Total Driving (2022-23 PGA Tour season)
- Ludvig Åberg 33
- Keith Mitchell 62
- Patrick Cantlay 63
- Will Gordon 91
- Hayden Buckley 94
- Kevin Yu 96
- Akshay Bhatia 97
- Cameron Champ 99
- Matti Schmid 105
- Shane Lowry 108
- Davis Thompson 121
- Austin Eckroat 123
- Lanto Griffin 123
- Tyler Duncan 128
- Doug Ghim 129
- Jason Day 134
- Gary Woodland 134
- Vincent Norrman 136
- Sepp Straka 138
- Collin Morikawa 142
Last year, Max Homa led the field for Strokes Gained: Approach en route to his victory. The Farmers Insurance Open winner in four of the last five years has rated fifth or better for Approach during the week.
Strokes Gained: Approach (Last 50 rounds)
- Collin Morikawa 47.6
- Daniel Berger 43.2
- Xander Schauffele 40.7
- Mark Hubbard 38
- Sam Ryder 37.2
- Gary Woodland 37.2
- Hideki Matsuyama 37
- Eric Cole 37
- Adam Schenk 35.3
- Alex Smalley 35.1
- Patrick Cantlay 31.2
- Tony Finau 30.3
- Chez Reavie 30.1
- Will Zalatoris 29.8
- Aaron Rai 28.9
- JJ Spaun 27
- Shane Lowry 26.8
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout 26.1
- Sepp Straka 25.8
- Ryan Moore 25.3
With four-inch rough and 82 bunkers, gaining with the short game is vitally important at Torrey Pines. Players will miss plenty of greens here, so they must scramble for pars regularly.
Scrambling Gained (Last 50 rounds)
- Maverick McNealy 28.6
- Aaron Baddeley 24
- Robert MacIntyre 18.1
- Peter Malnati 17.9
- Taylor Montgomery 16.9
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout 16.1
- Daniel Berger 15.3
- Chad Ramey 14.6
- Justin Rose 13
- Stewart Cink 12.9
- Kevin Streelman 12.2
- Andrew Novak 11.5
- Eric Cole 11.3
- Beau Hossler 10.7
- Matt Wallace 10.4
- Max Homa 10.2
- Xander Schauffele 10.2
- Jason Day 9.8
Strokes Gained: Around The Green (Last 36 rounds)
- Aaron Baddeley 25.8
- Troy Merritt 21.1
- SH Kim 17.2
- Mackenzie Hughes 15.9
- Jason Day 15.7
- Justin Rose 14.9
- Harry Hall 14.6
- Beau Hossler 14.1
- Sahith Theegala 14.1
- Taylor Montgomery 13.7
- Daniel Berger 12.5
- Stephan Jaeger 12.3
- Greyson Sigg 12.2
- Zac Blair 12.1
- Doug Ghim 11.5
- Peter Malnati 11.3
- Hideki Matsuyama 11.1
- JJ Spaun 10.9
- Tony Finau 10.8
No putting surfaces are more unpredictable than Poa annua. They can be slick and fast (12.5 on the stimpmeter here) and also very bumpy.
Strokes Gained Putting Poa Annua (Last 50 rounds)
- Peter Malnati 36
- Xander Schauffele 33.8
- Max Homa 31.2
- Brandt Snedeker 30.4
- Maverick McNealy 30.3
- Jason Day 27.6
- Michael Kim 25.6
- Daniel Berger 21.8
- Patrick Rodgers 21.6
- Harris English 20.7
- Mark Hubbard 18.3
- Matt Wallace 16.4
- Justin Suh 16 (15 Rounds)
- Nate Lashley 15.9
- Patrick Cantlay 15.1
- Lanto Griffin 14.7
- Ryan Moore 12.6
- Sepp Straka 12.2
- Chesson Hadley 12.1
- Justin Rose 12.1
The South Course at Torrey Pines ranks as the toughest course on tour in which to make putts inside 15 feet and also inside of five feet. Even with good ball striking, potential for bogeys lurks everywhere on these greens.
Bogeys Avoided (Last 50 rounds)
- Xander Schauffele 32.1
- Max Homa 31.5
- Patrick Cantlay 31.4
- Collin Morikawa 30
- Taylor Pendrith 29.7
- Ryan Moore 28.8
- Hideki Matsuyama 28
- Chesson Hadley 27
- Stewart Cink 24.8
- Robert MacIntyre 24.5
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout 23.7
- Min Woo Lee 21.6
- Jason Day 21.2
- Austin Eckroat 21.1
- JJ Spaun 19
- Doug Ghim 17.3
- Ryo Hisatsune 17.2 (19 Rounds)
- Daniel Berger 17
- Shane Lowry 16.7
- Harris English 16.2
The average approach shot distance here at Torrey Pines is 196 yards and this course, unsurprisingly, produces the most approach shots from 200 or more yards out.
Proximity Gained 175-200 Yards (Last 50 rounds)
- Chez Reavie 14.79
- Eric Cole 13.59
- Gary Woodland 13.05
- Justin Lower 12.15
- Hideki Matsuyama 11.18
- Austin Eckroat 10.94
- Will Gordon 10.91
- Greyson Sigg 9.36
- Collin Morikawa 8.66
- Taylor Pendrith 8.13
- Sam Ryder 7.9
- Scott Gutschewski 7.42
- Andrew Novak 7.33
- Joel Dahmen 6.91
- Stephan Jaeger 6.78
Proximity Gained 200+ Yards (Last 50 rounds)
- Charley Hoffman 22.52
- Eric Cole 17.61
- Justin Suh 16.64
- Hideki Matsuyama 15.66
- Luke List 14.88
- Gary Woodland 14.68
- Tony Finau 14.56
- Tom Hoge 13.92
- Taylor Pendrith 13.77
- Harrison Endycott 13.3
- Austin Eckroat 11.99
- Taylor Moore 11.99
- Stephan Jaeger 11.67
- Michael Kim 11.62
- Alex Smalley 11.23
Note: Average Feet Gained Toward the Hole from the Distance.
Six of the par-4s on the Torrey Pines South Course measure 450-500 yards.
Strokes Gained Par-4 450-500 Yards (Last 50 rounds)
- Xander Schauffele 39.9
- Ryan Fox 29.6
- Patrick Cantlay 27.5
- Hideki Matsuyama 25.7
- Beau Hossler 24
- Ludvig Åberg 23.4
- Sahith Theegala 16.3
- Lee Hodges 16
- Taylor Pendrith 15.7
- Adam Svensson 15.2
- Vincent Norrman 15.1
- Patrick Rodgers 14.8
- Jhonattan Vegas 14.6
- Keith Mitchell 14.3
- Justin Rose 14
With the difficulty of the South Course and the potential for so many bogeys, it is paramount to take advantage of the par-5s.
Strokes Gained Par-5s (Last 50 rounds)
- Stephan Jaeger 25.2
- Aaron Rai 21.3
- Doug Ghim 21.3
- Davis Thompson 21.1
- Patrick Cantlay 19.5
- Ben Griffin 19.1
- Lee Hodges 18
- Jhonattan Vegas 17.9
- Min Woo Lee 17
- Ludvig Åberg 16.9
- Collin Morikawa 16.9
- Garrick Higgo 16.1
- Nicolai Højgaard 15.8
- Paul Barjon 15.6
- SH Kim 15.6
- Taylor Pendrith 15.1
Selections
Tony Finau (25-1, Circa Sports)
Finau has five top-10s and four top-6s in his last seven appearances at Torrey Pines.
He has shaken off some rust early in the season and did shoot four rounds in the 60s last week at the AMEX.
Last year he was the second choice on the odds board behind Rahm and now he is as low as the ninth choice? This looks like a spot to buy the dip.
Sahith Theegala (33-1, BetMGM)
Theegala began 2024 with a runner-up at The Sentry.
Theegala, who grew up less than two hours away from Torrey Pines, finished fourth here last year.
He also fits the narrative of what Homa accomplished the year prior, which was to win the Fortinet Championship in the fall and then win the Farmers the following season.
Sepp Straka (50-1, Caesars Sportsbook)
If you were to ask even hardcore golf fans to list the current OWGR Top 20 players in the world, probably the least listed name would be No. 17 Straka.
The Austrian won for his second straight season on the tour at the John Deere Classic and finished seventh at the PGA and runner-up at the British Open.
He tends to thrive on more difficult course layouts as evidenced by his 2022 victory at the Honda Classic (PGA National).
Harris English (53-1, Circa Sports)
English has started 2024 with a 10th and a 14th on the Aloha Swing.
He lost in a playoff to Scott Stallings here in 2015 and has backed that up with 14th (2017) and an eighth (2018) across 10 Farmers appearances. Plus at the 2021 U.S. Open here, Harris finished third at 80-1.
English is also comfortable on the Poa annua greens having won the Travelers at TPC River Highlands in 2021.
Beau Hossler (66-1, BetMGM)
Hossler finished 2023 playing the most consistent golf of his career with nine top-30 finishes in his last 10 starts.
The California native’s best finish here is ninth in 2020. He has missed three consecutive cuts here, but he looks to be a better player now and is excellent around the greens.
Hideki Matsuyama (70-1, FanDuel)
Matsuyama has two Top 10s in his last five starts at Torrey Pines including a 3rd in 2019.
His recent form does not leap off the page and he played the majority of 2023 with a neck injury, but his approach and proximity numbers do leap off the page.
Patrick Rodgers (80-1, BetRivers)
Rodgers should have won his first PGA Tour event last summer at the Barracuda only to lose in a playoff to Akshay Bhatia.
He has two top-10s here in eight appearances at Torrey Pines and made the FedEx Cup Top 50 last year to make it into all the designated events.
Placement markets and matchups will be available Tuesday evening at VSiN.com/picks
