The 2025 Breeders’ Cup Classic picture has been thrown into turmoil just days before post time.
According to reports discussed on VSiN At The Track, Sovereignty, the odds-on favorite for Saturday’s $7 million Breeders’ Cup Classic at Keeneland, has developed a fever – putting his status for the race in serious question.
“Sovereignty spiked a fever last night. He had a fever again this morning… we are unsure whether Sovereignty is going to race on Saturday,” VSiN Horse Racing expert, Mike Somich explained, noting how unusual it is to see a top contender dealing with health issues this close to race day.
The panel made it clear that fevers this late in the week are rarely good news for a horse expected to go off at a short price.
“I’ve never really known a horse to have a fever on Tuesday of race week and still run,” Halterman said. “When you hear that kind of news three or four days out, they usually don’t end up in the starting gate.”
Mott Faces Difficult Decision
Trainer Bill Mott, who has guided Sovereignty through a stellar campaign that includes wins in the Pacific Classic and Whitney Stakes, is expected to make the final call in the coming days.
“I have the utmost confidence and respect for Bill Mott,” Halterman added. “He’s not going to jeopardize the horse. If the horse isn’t right, he’ll scratch.”
While no official decision has been made, the VSiN crew suggested the smart money might be preparing for a late-week scratch.
“If I had to guess, I’d say he’s not going to run,” Halterman said plainly.
Betting Fallout Looms Large
The potential absence of Sovereignty would completely reshape the betting landscape for the Breeders’ Cup Classic, widely considered one of the richest and most prestigious race in the United States.
Without the heavy favorite, handicappers and sportsbooks will have to adjust quickly. “It makes you a little sick to think about,” Halterman joked. “No pun intended.”
Even if Sovereignty lines up, bettors might hesitate to take such a short price given the uncertainty.
“That’s tough to swallow when it’s known the horse had a fever this week and he’s going to be that short of a price,” he added.
Stakes Beyond the Payout
The implications stretch beyond Saturday’s race. Sovereignty was a front-runner for Horse of the Year honors, a title that now hangs in the balance.
As Mike Somich summarized, “This is a $7 million Breeders’ Cup Classic – the richest race in the country. Sovereignty would win Horse of the Year if he wins the Classic. But if he doesn’t run, everything changes.”
VSiN Experts React and Adjust
VSiN’s horse racing team is already preparing for multiple scenarios. Their Breeders’ Cup expert picks package includes full race-by-race analysis for both days – with contingency plans for the Classic with or without Sovereignty in the field.
