Churchill Downs Picks for June 27:
SPLISH, SPLASH, MR. ED TOOK A BATH: Continuing Friday’s discussion on winners vs. value, not all race cards are equal. Case in point: Friday’s action at Churchill Downs, without a single stakes contest, offered some excellent wagering opportunities. Mr Ed’s day was over before it started as an overnight soaking of Louisville left the track MUDDY with all turf contests ruled OFF. After all was said and run, Mr. Ed had half a Daily Double, an Exacta Box and a closing Place finish by his Best Bet of the Day. A sloppy performance. Jose Ortiz led jockeys with a pair of wins, while the red-hot Joe Sharp barn also had two. At the windows, the average $2 Win ticket paid $12.99.
BIG STAKES SATURDAY AT CHURCHILL DOWNS: Headlined by the $2M Grade 1 Stephen Foster stakes, the card also features five additional first-class contests, including the Wise Dan and the American Derby. First post is 12:45 p.m. ET/9:45 a.m. PT. Make note: there is a 95% chance of rain with another round of day-long, water-logged track conditions. Here’s a look at Mr. Ed’s sloppy picks.
Mr. Ed’s Churchill Downs Picks for Saturday, 6/27
Race 1 — $120K MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT for 2YOs going 6 furlongs
With several future Triple Crown contestants in here, Mr. Ed likes a pair of youngsters: #5 ANTIVENOM (5-1 morning line) for HoF trainer Mark Casse with veteran jockey Javier Castellano on board, and #11 POWERLINE (8-5), expensive son of FLIGHTLINE, for super-trainer Steve Asmussen with Jose Ortiz riding.
CHURCHILL DOWNS SELECTION: $5 Daily Double of 5,11/4,5. ($20)
Race 2 (1:17 p.m. ET/10:17 a.m. PT) — $120K MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT for 3YOs & up going 1 1/16-mile
Mr. Ed’s picks are #4 PRESIDE (7-2 morning line) for Steve Asmussen with Jose Ortiz in the saddle, and #5 DIRECT STRIKE (7-5), an experienced sophomore out of the Brad Cox barn with top jock Irad Ortiz, Jr. returning. Speedy pair.
Race 4 (2:21 p.m. ET/11:21 PT) — $127 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING for 3YOs going 1 1/16-mile
Another late-blooming hotshot from Brad Cox, #7 FINAL STORY (4-5 morning line) appears much the best with leading rider Irad Ortiz, Jr. retaining mount. Speed figs tell the tale.
CHURCHILL DOWNS SELECTION: $20 to Win. ($20)
Race 6 (3:29 p.m. ET/12:29 p.m. PT) — $134K ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING for 3YOs & up going 7 furlongs
Mr. Ed likes three: #4 MONEY SUPPLY (9-2 morning line), seeking to become a million-dollar-earner for veteran trainer David Jacobson, with big rider upgrade to Joel Rosario; #8 BRING THE SMOKE (3-1) for sharp trainer Whit Beckman with Tyler Gaffalione back in saddle, and #9 KEEP IT EASY (6-1) for Dale Romans with rider upgrade to Irad Ortiz, Jr. Easy pick for Mr. Ed.
CHURCHILL DOWNS SELECTION: $5 Exacta Box. ($30)
Race 8 (4:36 p.m. ET/1:36 p.m. PT) — $275K AMERICAN DERBY for 3YOs going 1 1/16-mile
Mr. Ed’s VALUE PLAY OF DAY is #8 BUST OUT (6-1 morning line) for trainer Mike McCarthy, who ships fast colt in from the West Coast for stakes, and picks up super jock Flavien Prat. Speedy :59.1 work sealed the deal.
CHURCHILL DOWNS SELECTION: $10 to Win & Place. ($20)
Races 9-12 (5:08 p.m. ET/2:08 p.m. PT) — $.50 Pick 4*
R9: 2,6,7
R10: 2,4,5,8
R11: 2,3,5
R12: 3,8,9 ($54)
*In case of a scratch, the post-time favorite is the substitute selection.
Race 10 (5:43 p.m. ET/2:43 p.m. PT) — $500K G2 WISE DAN STAKES for 4YOs going 1 1/16-mile on the turf
#2 LAGYNOS goes for four-in-arrow for Steve Asmussen-Jose Ortiz team with contenders #4 CHASING THE CROWN (9-2) and #5 FLYING MOHAWK (15-1).
CHURCHILL DOWNS SELECTION; $5 Exacta Boxes of 2/4,5. ($20)
Race 11 (6:14 p.m. ET/3:14 p.m. PT) — $2M G1 STEPHEN FOSTER STAKES for 4YOs & up
It’s hard not to like Mr. Ed’s BEST BET #3 SOVEREIGNTY (6-5) for classy combo of Bill Mott and Junior Alvarado. The winner of last year’s Kentucky Derby, Belmont and Travers Stakes, he has banked in excess of $6 million from ten starts. Of the five expected participants, only graded stakes winners #2 WHITE ABARRIO and #5 MAGNITUDE are expected to contend.
CHURCHILL DOWNS SELECTION: $40 to Win.
TOTAL WAGERS: $204
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