Daily Racing Form expert handicapper and analyst Marcus Hersh handicaps the Saturday, June 27 racing card at Churchill Downs, including his projected 1-2-3 finishers. His best bet of the day comes from Race 11.
Also, view FREE DRF Past Performances for today’s Race of the Day.
BEST BET: Sovereignty (11th race)
Eleventh Race
1. Sovereignty
2. Magnitude
3. Baeza
I continue to believe until shown otherwise that SOVEREIGNTY is more than a standard Horse of the Year – a truly generational talent. The OP Handicap loss did not change my thoughts. How can a horse who came from 16th to win the Derby, who once showed no speed, who had never come close to leading, suddenly zoom to the front and set a strong pace? It is not the case – not even close – that he was trained like that. Sovereignty still doesn’t work like anything special – he saves that for races. The speed he showed, the way he disposed of pace rival Journalism, the fight he had when perfect trip, in-form White Abarrio came to him, his strong gallop out – I saw all I needed to see to know that this is the same horse – if not better – than the one who raced last summer. The OP ‘cap might have resulted in a loss, but he got everything he needed out of a comeback run – and I doubt Sovereignty ever loses again. With Forged Steel and Navajo Warrior coming out of the race, MAGNITUDE is in line for a perfect pressing trip outside Willy D’s. All that fluff I spewed about Sovereignty? I can’t totally rule out the chance that Magnitude proves his equal – even though that was not close to the case last summer. Forever Young probably doesn’t hit his peak at Meydan, but he at least came close to running his race this year, and Magnitude thumped him. My expectation is a very strong performance that still results in defeat. BAEZA ran extremely well over a wet CD surface in the Derby and has every right to improve off a very troubled Alysheba third. Is he good enough to beat his stablemate? I doubt it.
Here are Marcus’s thoughts on the other eleven races on Saturday’s Churchill Downs card.
First Race
1. Celtic Mo
2. Powerline
3. Antivenom
Powerline could win by 5, and it’d be no surprise – he also could go off at 4-5, even in this big field, and it’d be no surprise. Expensive son of mega-star Flightline, no delay in making the races, flashy workout times, J Ortiz for S Asmussen – c’mon, he’s going to get bet off the board. I’m not saying that’s misguided – the colt looks the part 100%. Two workout videos unfortunately don’t give us much to look at – but what we can see – aces. And believe that the horse is set to go – the 3f gate work on 6/21 one of those videos – classic “pop him out of the gate” before a race, nothing more, basically shut down after rider made sure he changed leads in upper stretch. But CELTIC MO – he works really, really well himself, and with all the action coming on POWERLINE, other potential runners in this 2yo MSW are going to offer value. Really liked C Mo’s gate work 5/28 – worked inside a horse, sat comfortably a couple lengths behind until they got to the finish wire, whereupon the rider asked for run and got plenty, C Mo coming through on the fence, no hesitation. ANTIVENOM a pricey yearling buy himself and like both the top two appears physically advanced. Flashy work times, but I wasn’t especially taken with the two earlier breeze videos we have. But June 19? Camera only caught him at the 3/16 pole, early enough to see him change leads, which he hadn’t done in the other breezes we can see, and he strode to the wire like a real racehorse. Could be a hot race, for sure.
Second Race
1. Preside
2. Civic Charm
3. Direct Strike
After sending out a $1.8 million yearling to make his 2yo debut in Race 1, the Asmussen barn has a $1.5 million 2-year-old purchase, PRESIDE, making just second start in Race 2. Do note – the horse is 3 now. He breezed once at KEE out of the breeze-up sale, then went dark until this spring. He ran just fine in his 7f debut, which came with a poor start that left him well behind the early leaders. I am not saying they were not trying to win, but watching the way he was handled, I would say that the sprint debut served as a learning experience toward this stretchout. Expect to see the needed improvement. Ahhh – American race video, where we zoom in on the leaders and can’t see anyone more than three lengths behind them. Thus, the best work CIVIC CHARM did in his last race can only be viewed through the head-on shot. Surely the GP sprint debut was supposed to lead to a route start – instead it led to a break. Now he gets that chance at two turns, which he almost certainly wants. DIRECT STRIKE on speed figures towers over this group – he’s also a five-race maiden for a win-early barn. Just took a solid defeat at 4-5, and don’t want him at the expected odds here.
Third Race
1. Pursuit of Freedom
2. Roscoe’s Brother
3. Tagermeen
I actually like older maidens who seem like they can run – a horse like PURSUIT OF FREEDOM. 5yo made one start in December 2024, 1 1/2 years later is ready for his second out. Suspect he will be more than ready, and in these cases, there’s often a physical maturity edge over the much younger rivals. Showed a lot of early speed in his race – I want to see that again. Envision him making the lead on a sloppy track and never looking back. ROSCOE’S BROTHER priced at 15-1 on the morning line – maybe. I think he has talent. Worked more than heads up with top-class sprinter Dr. Venkman on June 14. Other work videos encouraging enough – the concern is that in his recent gate drill, he broke very poorly, and here he starts from the rail in a full field. TAGERMEEN ran into a who’s who of 2yos during a winless but encouraging enough 2025 campaign. He’s supposed to win first time back from a layoff. Will be bet accordingly.
Fourth Race
1. Marauder
2. Brave Pilot
3. Final Story
MARAUDER didn’t for a month but back on a pattern starting May 18. Two good ones, two very poor ones through four races. I’m focusing on the positive – especially having talked to the trainer about this colt over the winter. Report is: Has talent, needs to grow up. Think he’s growing up. The solo drill at CD after two works at Ellis caught the eye – not asked for a ton, but very good gallop out. First noticed the horse when he finished a fine second to recent Ohio Derby winner Chip Honcho racing over a wet Churchill track last fall – and we are looking at a wet Churchill track on Saturday. BRAVE PILOT cuts back from 9f to 8.5, but is that getting him beat? His debut was quite good, his second-start MSW victory a cut above that – this horse has stakes-level talent. Think he has the foundation to continue marching forward. FINAL STORY could be odds-on after an odds-on loss in restricted Sir Barton, won by a horse who returned to romp in a modest Delaware stake. Obvious contender, but just think we’ve already seen who he is, perhaps not as much so with the top two, and in this space, we always consider expected value.
Fifth Race
1. Just Basking
2. Way to Be Marie
3. Vive Veuve
Have no idea what to expect from turf racing on this card. Churchill could get a lot – a lot – of rain late in the week. The course has stood up remarkably well to precipitation this meet, and I’ll guess that continues regardless of rainfall totals – that there won’t be a bog out there. JUST BASKING was scratched from a stakes earlier in the meet and had to get off the vet’s list to run – if she makes the gate, expect to see her turn in a representative showing. That can win this race, no doubt. Her turf debut – cross it out, as, for whatever reason, she just didn’t show up. Fair to wonder how the good three-turn grass form in Fla translates to 9f around two turns here – my guess is yes, it translates. Still has upside, which can’t be said of many here. WAY TO BE MARIE beat a modest group at FG three back but might have “needed” that race, and also might not truly have suited the three-turn contest she got into her last two starts. I’d guess she’s one of the likelier candidates to handle softer ground. VIVE VEUVE I wonder about on less than firm footing – and also wonder how likely it is she gets right back to her 2025 peak. The morning line odds are too short for me.
Sixth Race
1. Dive Bomber
2. Echo Again
3. Bring the Smoke
The A Shorter barn during June at CD went 4-10. Maybe that’s a mere random blip, but there has been an infusion of new horses into the barn, and we note that since 2022 Shorter had gone 5-96 at Churchill. Shorter one of three trainers for DIVE BOMBER since he was claimed for $50K last September, after which he won two straight, including a 7.5f N1X over the CD strip that puts him in range of an upset here. Competitive thirds in his last two, both at CD, got the wrong trip last time, and carries his form onto a wet track. ECHO AGAIN’s baseline sits much higher than his most recent race, and expect him to get back to it this start. Career-best, if you buy the Beyers, came over a muddy Churchill track. Should get a good clean run into it from wide draw. BRING THE SMOKE I guess will be favored off the LRL stakes win last out? Three-horse blanket finish and not sure the two he beat are appreciably better than the leading rivals in this allowance race. Moreover, he got a good trip last time, and never has gone beyond 6f. Flip side, there’s the blowout victory in his lone start over a wet track.
Seventh Race
1. Regaled
2. Immersive
3. Splendora
Decided to take shots in what looks on paper like a two-horse race between Splendora and Shred the Gnar. Neither has won over 1 1/8 miles, neither has run on a wet track, and both want to run the same kind of forward race. REGALED? She undoubtedly ran flat last out at Saratoga. Under what circumstances did she hit her career peak? 1 1/8 miles over a wet track. Not just that race – she’s a proven mud-lover. If she ran back to her BC Distaff, an upset is within range. Wouldn’t have thought after her ’25 campaign that 2yo star IMMERSIVE would improve even this much at age 4 – she has, and third start into her form cycle, she could be headed toward a peak, that at a distance that suits her. More I looked at SPLENDORA, the more I thought she could get this trip – and she might just romp. Better horse now than when she last tried 9f. Cross out the excusable May 2 dud and the form’s really unassailable. Shred the Gnar turned in her own dud this year – that one at GP with less excuse than Splendora, who’d gotten sick and missed a work. Listen, I’ve long been “a fan” of this horse, and she absolutely can win, but she got a perfect trip in the La Troienne, and the horse she put away was coming off a winter break and is not anywhere near Splendora’s class.
Eighth Race
1. Prepped
2. Thousandsticks
3. Alpyland
Note that PREPPED went off favored at CD in his career debut – the expectations always have been high. It just took him a good bit of time to start living up to them. He is now, even just off the maiden win. Still was running green two back at FG first start in blinkers, and his last out was his first complete race. J Ortiz tipped him out in upper stretch, gave him one tap of the crop, and Prepped just took off. Ran a 21 and change final quarter mile and appeared to do that well within himself. Massive upside if he handles a wet course. THOUSANDSTICKS probably doesn’t want the 9f he ran last time, but even in defeat took a step back toward his best following a clunker two back. Am just guessing, but somehow see his speed holding up over laboring turf. ALPYLAND an obvious contender – too obvious – has (maybe) nowhere to go but down after the Penn Mile peak.
Ninth Race
1. Dr. Venkman
2. Harrodsburg
3. Cornucopian
DR. VENKMAN’s BC Sprint seemingly unappreciated – one more jump and he runs down Imagination for second beyond a front-running winner at the peak of his powers over a potentially speed-favoring strip. Keep in mind there was the 2024 route experiment that might have delayed his development as a sprinter. The horse, according to the trainer, doesn’t love racing inside – and look at all those inside draws last season. I’ll make two guesses at the projected price – that he comes back to the races the same way he went out last year, and that he can handle a wet track. Could get a great setup if HARRODSBURG takes it to CORNUCOPIAN from the start, and the latter can’t get to the outside. Harrodsburg a true mudlark – he ran far too well to lose to Nash in June 2025, and his comeback run over the CD slop last out was very strong. On a sloppy surface, he’s capable of pulling an upset. I did really like Cornucopian’s win last out in the moment – looking back, he worked into a good trip pressing a pace that wasn’t all that fast. Got crushed in the betting last time and suspect it happens again. We’ll see if he can outfoot Harrodsburg or find a way outside.
Tenth Race
1. Chasing the Crown
2. Fort Washington
3. Lagynos
Only an incredibly bad bob kept CHASING THE CROWN from winning the Opening Verse over Lagynos. The horse isn’t always in good form, but when he’s good, he’s more than good enough to win a race like this. Two years ago, he hooked sharp Godolphin runner Ottomnan Fleet when second in this very race. Loves CD, and guessing he can handle a wet course. Don’t mind at all F Prat taking the call. FORT WASHINGTON on the same pattern as last summer – Dinner Party in MD to Wise Dan – and last year on to a win in the Arlington Million. This race served as a springboard to the big success in August, but that need not be the case again. The PIM course labeled “good” was much more like soft, and he ran well on that. LAGYNOS has put together a remarkable string of high-level performances and shows no sign of wavering. He has no distinct edge on others here, but also was a pretty fair price in his most recent win.
Twelfth Race
1. Tam Tam
2. Bohemian
3. Ground Support
The 1 1/8-mile distance last out was too far for TAM TAM – this mile is ideal, and she very much held her form in the Regret. She should sit a perfect press/stalk and pounce trip – just hope a wet course doesn’t undo her. Wet course? BOHEMIAN, based on her Texas run vs. males, wants all of that. One could give her at least minor excuses for the three starts since – back on track this time. Think the trigger got pulled a little early on GROUND SUPPORT in the BC Juv Fil Turf – even so, she was a very competitive third, and with a later move might actually have won. Taken a good long while to get back to the races, and don’t know we see her best over a sodden course.
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