Mike Somich’s Fair Grounds Picks:
As another Saturday approaches, we have another big day of racing! Fair Grounds kicks off the festivities with their second derby prep of the season with Risen Star day. The card features six stakes races, including four graded stakes, and concludes with an all-stakes Pick 5 that will be one of the biggest pools of the day.
However, it will not be the biggest pool of the day; that will go to the Gulfstream Park Pick 6, which will have a mandatory payout and an expected pool of over $5 million.
Fair Grounds, Race #14, The Risen Star
The Risen Star features the return of the failed Breeders’ Cup juvenile favorite #4 East Avenue, who stumbled badly at the start and was all but eliminated from the race. Prior to that race, he was awesome. He was disqualified from his debut win despite winning by eight lengths and returned in stakes company at Keeneland where he romped. He does face a host of early competition, but if he is ready off the bench, he will be tough.
With the hot pace, you’ve got to look at a closer and that leads directly to #9 Built. He ran a huge second in the Lecomte, the previous prep here, and just got nailed at the wire by many people’s newly minted Derby favorite Disco Time. He broke from the 12 post that day and was hung wide the entire race. While the post isn’t perfect, the eight hole is much better than the twelve. If he can save ground, he is going to tough.
The #1 American Promise will try to rebound from a disappointing effort in the Southwest at a nice 12-1 price. He is a speedball that simply broke poorly in that spot and, now with the rail draw, he is going to dead send. The scratch of fellow speed directly to his outside. If he can make the front, he is dangerous at a price.
#3 Vassimo is a perfect 2 for 2 in his career and draws the services of Irad Ortiz Jr for Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher. He needs to improve, but the fact he shows up here means that he is live at 8-1
The Bet – $50 Exacta 4 – 9
Fair Grounds, Race #12, The Fair Grounds
My favorite trainer to bet is Cherie DeVaux. The betting world is starting to catch up but still selling her talents short. Specifically, when she draws one of the Ortiz brothers, she is sending out a live runner. That’s the case with #8 Taking Candy, who improved in his three races as a three-year-old and won off the bench to kick off his campaign in a tough race at Saratoga with a less-than-ideal draw. He can win on the lead or stalk and pounce. He’s the horse to beat at 4-1.
#3 Unit Economics is the stereotypical Chad Brown horse that steps up and runs his best when brown makes the move to the graded stakes company. Off a very good second in his seasonal debut the likelihood he improves here is high, the question is will it be enough to win.
#1 What Say Thee beat Taking Candy to the wire last time out, running a career-best number while being reunited with Luis Saez. That win made the duo an impressive four for five. He’s a player but will need the pace to materialize and the right trip from the rail to win.
#5 Relampago Verde is probably a better turf horse than dirt horse, but he has been forced to run on the dirt the last two. With the return to the grass, he is live to run a career best here.
The Bet – $50 Win #8
Other bets:
The clear single in the Gulfstream Park Pick 6 is the 4 in the 9th. Knightsbridge will be a short price, but he should win. Keep an eye on the 4 in the last at a price. He’s live to go gate to wire.
Fair Grounds Race #13 – $50 Exacta 2 – 6
Fair Grounds Race #8 – $50 Win #4
