Weekend horse racing handicapper best bets from Mike Somich
It’s going to be an interesting weekend in the racing world, capped off by two of the mid-American derbies for this year’s 3-year-old class. Parx card on Saturday is loaded with stakes races concluding in the Pennsylvania Derby and Remington Park on Sunday features the Oklahoma Derby. Each field drew at least 11 runners and offers some betting value. Make sure that you check on the weather this weekend as well! We have had a couple tracks go off the turf already today and Belmont at the Big A has already canceled their card.
Grade 1 Cotillion – Parx, Saturday, Race #12
While the boys will be running the feature of the day, the ladies will take the track first to compete in the Cotillion. #3 Pretty Mischievous will break as your favorite and has had success over an off track before. She’s the class of the field and loves the distance however she will need some pace to chase to be able to get to the wire first and the price will be short.
The #7 Defining Purpose will be closer to the pace and offers a better price at 4-1. She should sit a perfect trip and is on the improve since coming back off the layoff in July. Let’s look at a price here as well, the #6 Just Katherine will be setting up to stakes company for the 2nd time but is coming off very good back-to-back races at Saratoga where she stalked the pace and pounced. She needs to take a small step forward to be competitive, but at 12-1 I am willing to take a shot. Chad Brown will send out #5 Occult who looked great winning the Monmouth Oaks last time out. She’s 2 for 2 when racing over an off-track and should be running late.
Picks – 7-3-6-5
Bets – Let’s box an exacta here – $5 ExB 7 with 3,6 for a total of $20
Grade 2 Oklahoma Derby – Remington Park, Sunday, Race #10
This solid field of 13 is headlined by Kentucky Derby trail mainstay #13 Hit Show.
Unfortunately for him, he just cannot catch a break with these post positions. He was forced to break from the 12/12 post in the Wood Memorial and the dreaded 1 post in the Kentucky Derby. Despite that, he ran well in both races and faces easier today just be aware of the price. Hit Show is 3-1 on the morning line and will be bet down off that number.
The #4 Cagliostro ran well in the Smarty Jones and Indiana Derby with less than ideal trips. Today, that 4 post should give Cagliostro an edge over his main competitors and should get a great trip sitting right behind the speed. #10 Red Route One has danced all the dances this year as well, but just does not love to win. He will be coming from way, way back and needs a perfect trip cutting through traffic to be able to get to the top spot. Love him underneath, but not on top. #2 Tumbarumba has a wonderful name and some tactical speed that should play nicely once they break. He has the option to go right to the front and take it to them or sit off the speed and pounce around the turn. The main question mark is the big step up in class while adding some extra ground.
Picks – 4-13-10-2
Bets – Let’s look at a trifecta here. $2 Trifecta 4,13 with 4,13 with 2,10 for a total of $8. Let’s add a Superfecta as well. $2 Superfecta 4,13 with 4,13 with 2,10 with 2,3,10 for a total of $16.
Spot plays
Saturday, Parx Race #7 – $20 Trifecta 6-3-4
Sunday, Remington Park Race #8 – Win #8
