MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Tuesday, August 18.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
Our Opta AI MLB Player Prop Projections are also available.
6:40 PM Eastern
Detroit Tigers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Things have been rough recently for Pirates starting pitcher Braxton Ashcraft, who overall for the season has a 3.88 ERA due to a recent stretch in which he has allowed at least four runs in four of his past six starts. However, his 3.58 fielding independent with 9.9 strikeouts and 2.1 walks per nine innings points toward positivity. Tigers starting pitcher Keider Montero has a 3.22 ERA but a higher 3.85 fielding independent with the high amount of contact he is pitching to, getting only six strikeouts per nine innings, and the Pirates lead the league in scoring at home with over 5.4 runs per game.
Pick: Pirates Moneyline -130
Greg’s Handicap: Pirates -146
San Francisco Giants vs. Cleveland Guardians
Guardians starting pitcher Foster Griffin may be due for a bit of regression on his 3.25 ERA, as he has a 4.23 fielding independent with 1.4 home runs per nine innings. Giants starting pitcher Carson Whisenhunt has a 6.11 ERA and 5.40 fielding independent with 7.1 strikeouts and 5.8 walks per nine innings and is supported by a bullpen that ranks 24th in ERA at 4.38.
Pick: Giants vs. Guardians Over 8 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.6
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds
Reds starting pitcher Andrew Abbott overall this season owns a 4.13 ERA with 6.9 strikeouts and 4.3 walks per nine innings for a 4.65 fielding independent, but has allowed three runs or fewer in 17 of his past 19 starts. Cardinals starting pitcher Kyle Leahy has a 3.28 ERA and 3.64 fielding independent with 0.9 home runs and 2.7 walks per nine innings allowed, but has large home and road splits with a 2.91 ERA and 0.3 home runs per nine innings allowed at home while supplying a 3.96 road ERA with 1.7 home runs per nine innings allowed. He is supported by a bullpen that is 19th in ERA at 4.23.
Pick: Reds Moneyline +105 and Over 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Reds -124 and Total 9.3
7:40 PM Eastern
Athletics vs. Kansas City Royals
The Athletics are without their top three home run hitters due to injury and send Jack Perkins to the mound for a start. Perkins owns a 7.27 ERA with 1.8 home runs and 3.5 walks per nine innings. The Royals are expected to go with a combination of Daniel Lynch and Mason Black as their two main pitchers, who both own an ERA below 3.75, though Black has a 6.31 fielding independent. The Royals are supported by a bullpen that is 29th in ERA at 5.27, but the Athletics are even worse, posting a 6.77 bullpen ERA since June 1.
Pick: Royals Moneyline -130
Greg’s Handicap: Royals -146
Seattle Mariners vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Brewers starting pitcher Kyle Harrison has overall posted a 3.47 ERA with 11 strikeouts and 1.3 home runs per nine innings allowed, but has been significantly better at home with a 1.38 ERA and 0.6 home runs per nine innings allowed compared to a 6.10 ERA with nearly two home runs per nine innings away from home. Mariners starting pitcher Bryce Miller owns a 3.39 ERA with a 3.85 fielding independent, 8.9 strikeouts and 1.7 walks per nine innings allowed, but is also allowing 1.5 home runs per nine innings. He faces a Brewers lineup that is last in the league in home runs hit on a per-at-bat basis, while the Mariners are last in the league in scoring with 3.9 runs per game.
Pick: Mariners vs. Brewers Under 8 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 7.3
8:05 PM Eastern
Washington Nationals vs. Texas Rangers
Though the Nationals traded some sluggers at the trade deadline, the team still leads the league in scoring with 5.3 runs per game and faces Rangers starting pitcher Cal Quantrill, who may be due for regression on his 3.44 ERA, as his fielding independent is 4.50 with 6.2 strikeouts per nine innings. Jackson Kent makes his second career start for Washington after allowing three runs in four innings in his MLB debut last week. He owned a 3.72 ERA with 10 strikeouts per nine innings at the minor league level this season and is supported by a bullpen that ranks last in the National League in ERA at 4.88.
Pick: Nationals vs. Rangers Over 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 9.1
