Keeneland Picks for Saturday, October 11:
SCRATCHING AN ITCH: All too often, Mr. Ed’s worst time of day as a public handicapper is when the track posts the scratches on the day’s racing card. Friday at Keeneland was a near-perfect example. Five of my selections were scratched, rendering nearly half my picks useless to the reader — and to me. I can hear the wiseguy outcry. “Hey, what’s with this Mr. Ed dude? Half his predicted winners aren’t running. What a jerk!” Mr. Ed’s job of handicapping a card begins early in the morning (about the time VSiN boss Bill Adee is turning in) on the day before the races are to be run. He then submits his next-day picks around 7 p.m. ET. After a good night’s sleep, Mr. Ed checks the internet and pitches a fit upon discovering many of his selections are scratched and won’t run. So, bear with me, folks. Scratches are beyond even Bill’s control. So accept them as the price of playing the ponies. In my case, after my fit, I consider them an easy way to save money. Sometimes the best bet is the one you don’t make.
TRACKING MR. ED: Never in all his days of handicapping can Mr. Ed recall a day, at a major track like Keeneland, when longshots so dominated the racing results. HOFer Johnny Velazquez led the charge aboard a $70 winner in Race 9, immediately followed by a $30 score by a low-profile rider in the nightcap, resulting in a $2 Daily Double ticket paying in excess of $1,800. See what I mean? The numbers speak for themselves. Jockey Edgar Morales, not exactly a household name, was the lone rider to have two winners. By the time all ten races were finished running, the average $2 Win ticket returned a whopping $22+. And, the chalk-favoring Mr. Ed suffered a VSiN shutout. Moving on to Saturday’s 10-race program at Keeneland, with sunny skies in the forecast, the first race post time is 1:00 p.m. ET/10:00 a.m. PT. Let’s take a look at Mr. Ed’s selections
Mr. Ed’s Picks at Keeneland for Saturday (10/11)
Race 1 — $85K MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT for 2YOs going 6½ furlongs
To begin the betting, Mr. Ed likes a Daily Double: #5 DON’T EVEN (4-1 morning line), trained by savvy horseman Wesley Ward and ridden by veteran Victor Espinoza, and #8 CIELO (9-2), trained by local favorite Kenny McPeek and ridden by French-import Flavien Prat. A pair of young first-time starters who merit serious consideration.
KEENELAND SELECTIONS: $5 Daily Doubles of 5,8/4,8. ($20)
Race 2 (1:32 p.m. ET/10:32 a.m. PT) — $49K CLAIMING for 3YOs going 6 furlongs
To complete the DD, Mr. Ed is going with #4 MEGASTAR (10-1 morning line). Gelding gets rider upgrade to Joel Rosario for trainer Ron Moquett, and favorite #8 KUNAN (5-2) for top trainer Brad Cox, who switches to Irad Ortiz, Jr. in the saddle.
Race 3 (2:04 p.m. ET/11:04 a.m. PT) — $120K OPTIONAL CLAIMING for 2YOs going 1 1/16-mile
The team of trainer Brendan Walsh and Tyler Gaffalione stands out among others, as Mr. Ed picks #5 INFILTRATE (7-2 morning line) to beat the field. In backstretch source, Mr. Ed trusts.
KEENELAND SELECTION: $10 to Win. ($10)
Race 4 (2:36 p.m. ET/11:36 a.m. PT ) — $85K MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT for 2YOs going 6½ furlongs
Mr. Ed likes a trio: #4 SLEEPINGONFREEDOM (7-2 morning line), a must-use following a rapid close in debut. Stretchout suits McPeek youngster with rider upgrade to Jose Ortiz; #8 JOLTED (6-1), trained by up-and-comer Brit Whitman, who retains out-of-town rider Kendrick Carmouche, and #9 RACE READY (8-1) outsider for Norm Casse, who retains Irad Ortiz, Jr. in saddle. Mr. Ed is more than ready to score.
KEENELAND SELECTION: $5 Exacta Box. ($30)
Race 5 (3:08 p.m. ET/12:08 p.m. PT) — $110K MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT for 2YO fillies going 5½ furlongs on the turf
If this Irish gal is good enough for Flavien Prat to ride, she’s good enough for Mr. Ed to bet. My choice is #3 SUPER DREAMY (8-1 morning line) for trainer Whit Beckman. Mr. Ed won’t be caught sleeping without a bet on this coed.
KEENELAND SELECTION: $10 to Win. ($10)
Race 6 (3:40 p.m. ET/12:40 p.m. PT) — $140K OPTIONAL CLAIMING for fillies and mares, 3YOs & up going 6½ furlongs
Mr. Ed likes #3 ZADORSKY (6-1 morning line) to win for Whit Beckman with Kendrick Carmouche. He also expects #5 ONE MAGIC PHILLY (3-1 morning line), #7 EASY RED (9-2) and #8 HILLERITO (9-5) to contend in a competitive sprint.
KEENELAND SELECTION: $5 Exacta Boxes of 3 with 5,7,8. ($30)
Race 7 (4:12 p.m. ET/1:12 p.m. PT) — $120K ALLOWANCE for 3YOs and up going 1⅜-mile on the grass
My money is going on #9 WRITE OFF JERRY (8-1 morning line) to upset the field. Toss the last dull effort. Return of Tyler Gaffalione to saddle a big positive. Never count out Mike Maker’s barn, with the exception of Jerry, who you can write off.
KEENELAND SELECTION: $5 to Win, Place & Show. ($15)
Race 8 (4:44 p.m. ET/1:41 p.m. PT) — $130K OPTIONAL CLAIMING for 3YO fillies going 6 furlongs
I like #9 GIN’S BEACH ROAD (3-1 morning line) for HOF trainer Mark Casse with only rider she’s ever known, Jose Ortiz. Expensive daughter of Quality Road seeking repeat off Churchill victory. Hit the road, Gin.
KEENELAND SELECTION: $20 to Win & $5 Daily Double of 9&9. ($25)
Race 9 (5:16 p.m. ET/2:16 p.m. PT) — $800K QUEEN ELIZABETH II CHALLENGE CUP for 3YOs going 1⅛ miles on the turf
Mr. Ed’s BEST BET OF THE DAY is #9 FIONN (3-1 morning line) for top Brad Cox barn with Flavien Prat seeking hat trick with sharp (winner of 6 of 8) turfer. Watch for him to catch the field in the stretch.
KEENELAND SELECTION: $20 to Win. ($20)
TOTAL WAGERS: $160
SUNDAY AT KEENLAND: The track closes out the week with a nine-race program, featuring a competitive card of maiden, claiming and allowance contests. First race post time is 1:00 p.m. ET/10 p.m. Mr. Ed will be back on VSiN with his selections.
NFL PICKS (2-2)*
ARIZONA CARDINALS +7
*(against the spread)
