Looking for Kentucky Derby 2026 picks and full race card coverage at Churchill Downs? Expert handicapper Marcus Hersh shares his picks and race-by-race analysis for every race on Derby Day, including the 152nd Kentucky Derby, along with his Best Bet of the day from Race 2.
Also, view FREE DRF Past Performances for today’s Race of the Day.
Best Bet of the Day: Taptastic (Race 2)
Kentucky Derby – Race 12
1. Chief Wallabee
2. Emerging Market
3. Further Ado
What are the chances that a very veteran trainer who had never won a Derby outright and a veteran jockey who had never won a Derby at all – or come even close – could capture two in a row? It can happen with CHIEF WALLABEE, trained by Bill Mott, ridden by Junior Alvarado. Totally different circumstances than Sovereignty last year. Mott had the Derby in mind for Sovereignty when he sent him to Churchill to race during the fall of his 2-year-old season. Chief Wallabee didn’t even debut until he turned 3. Undeniable talent. Clearly bested Tampa Bay Derby winner and Derby foe The Puma in their common debut. Jumped into the G2 Fountain of Youth, the much more experienced Commandment got through on the rail while the Chief had to go wide – Commandment by a neck. Florida Derby, Chief Wallabee went slightly flat at the furlong grounds – a costly loss of focus. Was not tired, was not psychologically beaten, because he galloped out in front. Addition of blinkers has kept his head straight in the last two works – he used to cock it to the right in the homestretch. And I think they’ll give him that last bit of concentration that can win him the Derby. EMERGING MARKET makes just his third start but has the mental capacity to handle all that’s being thrown at him. He shipped to Fair Grounds like an old pro, acted perfect before the race, won a dogfight with a far more seasoned foe while stretched from a 1 1/16-mile maiden to a 1 3/16-mile G2. Think the talent is there – we’ll see if he’s quite ready. FURTHER ADO appears to have trained as well as anyone — save, perhaps, Chief Wallabee — into this. Clearly, his two big wins have come at the same track, and that track is not this one, but I think he runs his race.
Here are Marcus’ thoughts on the other thirteen races on Saturday’s Kentucky Derby card at Churchill Downs.
First Race
1. Powershift
2. Bourbon Dream
3. Ingleborough
POWERSHIFT would be an easy top selection had he not drawn so poorly; the combination of post 12 and his miniscule odds made me want to try and beat him. Can’t get there – not with this group. Fairly certain his step back last out owed more to swinging back into racing action a bit too soon after a powerful debut performance than a class hike to graded-stakes competition. In the maiden race, he finished second behind Emerging Market – a colt who, you know, won the Louisiana Derby in his next start and runs in the Kentucky Derby on this card. Can’t see anything like that sort of talent in this group, and Powershift has been working great at Payson Park going in company with another Derby horse, Renegade. BOURBON DREAM caught my eye when watching (and liking) Sovereign Law’s maiden win at Gulfstream. Thought Sovereign Law ran well and probably is a solid horse, and Bourbon Dream pushed back all the way to the wire. Looked like kind of a galloping type who could suit a two-turn middle distance race like this more than the one-turn mile. Wish there were some work video for INGLEBOROUGH, who has the look of a second-time starter set to improve on the surface switch and stretchout – but there’s not.
Second Race
1. Taptastic
2. Sovereign Law
3. Memory
Think that TAPTASTIC is a very good colt. Bet down to 4-5 in his debut (a two-turn first out, at that) for good reason; quite brave for a first-timer to push through a relatively narrow opening in mid-stretch and power home to a going-away victory. Was not overmatched jumping straight into the Arkansas Derby, and, in fact, had a somewhat troubled trip, lacking room off the far turn and into upper stretch. Would say he went just as well as Risen Star Stakes winner Chip Honcho breezing inside him April 25. SOVEREIGN LAW in his sprint debut ran like a route horse – lacked speed, went fairly evenly, and past the wire, the jockey clearly asked for a strong gallop out – as though they were already looking to stretch the horse out. The solid maiden score in the GP one-turn mile, to me, is a bridge to an even better showing in his two-turn debut. Encouraging post-win work video. We shall see, but am not quite buying what MEMORY’s last-out speed figure’s trying to sell – that he’s the fastest horse in this race. Thought that second-start, sprint-to-route score was fine, but nothing special, and seen the same in breeze video. Might he be favored?
Access Full Past Performances and Expert Analysis for Today’s Races at DRF.com
Third Race
1. Who Dey
2. Vibe
3. Bullard
Had forgotten until watching some recent works what a gigantic horse WHO DEY is. Just massive, and a stride to match, but, that said, I still think the horse is better at this one-turn mile trip than around two turns, though he did cap his ’25 campaign with a very creditable run in the G2 Clark over 1 1/8 miles. Breeze video agrees with the work pattern on the page – the horse is coming back ready to rock. Really should get a very favorable race flow with plenty of speed entered. It’s what VIBE did in morning work since his second straight win as much as the two straight wins that makes me like him here. Do have to account for fact he’d been off the better part of a year when he turned a perfect trip into a workmanlike – though open lengths — win last out. Breeze video from April 16 when he worked outside the graded-stakes horse Grande and more than held his own. He’s set for a good one. BULLARD had a very promising three races to start his career, but since has not developed much. Reading between the (running) lines, I’d guess a little bit of this, little bit of that has held him back. Positive signs last out in the two-turn Turfway Tapeta showing. Well drawn here for the trip he needs.
Fourth Race
1. Splendora
2. Usha
3. Ways and Means
There was the sense among some that SPLENDORA kind of lucked into her Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint win, that injuries odd race choices cleared the way for her win. I never felt that way. Legitimately dominant performance from a legitimately excellent sprinter-miler. She has an awesome foundation now, a great racing rhythm, surely a mare filled with confidence. Can’t fault the work video available. And you even get a tiny win odds boost with Ways and Means in the race. USHA has not yet beaten a horse like Splendora or WAYS AND MEANS, but in her three wins since joining the Baffert barn, she’s beaten everyone who lined up against her by wide margins. Simply Joking, a distant third behind Usha last out, came back to win a G3 by nearly seven lengths. Now, her one loss since Baffert too overcame the one time she hit the road – a dud last fall at KEE. Won’t entirely hold that against her. Video suggests she’s worked at least as well as Splendora, and here, there’s win value. Ways and Means has also been training great, and her trainer is great at bringing horses back from long layoffs ready to win, but the mare hasn’t raced since June – I’d have to think she’ll be better next time than this one. Though perhaps they’ve strictly pointed to “this one” after an abbreviated ’25 campaign. The 2025 renewal of this year’s race looks a little less impressive now than it did through last summer and into the fall.
Fifth Race
1. Yellow Card
2. Joe Shiesty
3. Litigation
This essentially is Round 2 of the Shakertown run last month at Keeneland – seven out of that race come back in this one. YELLOW CARD probably ran best in that race. All credit to victorious My Boy Prince, but he got a dream trip while Yellow Card had trouble. No fault of jockey, but he was squeezed back while in a thicket of horses going toward the half-mile pole, forcing the rider to check, costing YC momentum and several lengths. Brushed with Litigation when both were making an outside run, and, as often has been the best, did not change leads smoothly, something I wish he’d correct. That Shakertown didn’t at all come out of nowhere – check out his Clockers Corner, albeit against lesser, and the way he hit the line there after some early trouble, though less than last out. He’s 1-1 on the course, though fear he’s going to take a lot of betting here. Really liked JOE SHIESTY to win the Shakertown wire-to-wire, and he caved pretty quickly once confronted. I can’t give him any in-race excuse, but he was coming back four weeks after winning huge at Turfway returning from a layoff. Bounce last time, bounce back this time? Has run really well at CD and has ample speed to get position from Post 12. LITIGATION also ran about as well as My Boy Prince last month when you account for ground loss – he was widest on the turn with no cover. Cannot quite decide if there’s further upside or if we’ve already seen the best of him.
Sixth Race
1. Tour Player
2. Moonlight
3. Capital Idea
My first thought regarding TOUR PLAYER: “He’s not quite good enough for this.” Keeping an open mind is important in this endeavor – and I do think he’s “good enough” given the trip I expect. No question the horse loves the Churchill surface; four wins from five starts, the loss over a muddy track he might not have handled. Got a great setup last out at CNL, for sure, but he’s getting another one here, and his margin of victory last time dwindled after he opened a big lead in upper stretch and subsequently dawdled. There’s little speed signed on here. Dragoon Guard (the trainer has poor numbers with older horses adding blinkers) will go forward from his inside draw, and Bernin Hot might or might not have the gas to stick close. Regardless, Tour Player will wind up perched right off a tempered tempo and get first run on the closers. I thought MOONLIGHT could show as much in two-turn Fair Grounds races as he has in Churchill one-turn miles – and was dead wrong. Did get a poor trip two back, but a non-factor with no apparent excuse last time. A Churchill one-turn mile though? That brings out the best in the horse. Compared workout video from a year ago to recent KEE drills and decided I might’ve wanted to see a tad more from them? But not a deal-breaker at all. CAPITAL IDEA made a solid run at a good horse, Grande, loose on the lead, that after a needed comeback race behind another sharp winner at Tampa. Set for best third off the bench, and like him cutting back to a one-turn mile, but just wonder if there’s enough speed to set him up.
Seventh Race
1. Portfolio Duration
2. Temptable
3. Classic Q
PORTFOLIO DURATION makes her stakes debut in a graded race while starting for the fourth time and moving up in class from a first-level allowance. That’s a lot to ask, and you’re not getting much of a price, either, with trainer Chad Brown and jockey Flavien Prat attached to the animal. The value might not be there, but that depends on how much you like the horse. For me, this spot, it’s quite a bit. Her debut defeat, beaten by a stablemate, came strictly down to a question of trip – PD was flying at the finish, the winner saved by the wire. Then – crickets, no starts between February and December. She was supposed to thump those Tampa maidens on Dec. 3, and thump them she did, and while PD didn’t run back until March 28, Brown kept her working right along during that period. That suggests that he had this race in mind, wanted one prep at the right time, and got that March 28. No contest, that N1X allowance, and while these rivals present a far sterner challenge, this filly has the kick and has worked like a horse ready to deploy it to great advantage. TEMPTABLE got better and better through her seven races in France, capped by an eye-catching score Oct. 3, her final race before being exported to America. As had become her habit, she went to the front in that race, but at Del Mar, breaking from post 11, she found herself nowhere near the front, never, in fact, getting into any kind of winning position. Though seventh, she finished with good energy before going to HOF trainer B Mott. Wish we had some work video from Payson – we don’t, but fast dirt times, FWIW. CLASSIC Q is about as wide as a piece of paper but is very good! Lush Lips has turned into an absolute tiger, and it took a strong late surge from her to get past Q in the Honey Fox.
Eighth Race
1. Englishman
2. Crude Velocity
3. Secured Freedom
ENGLISHMAN obviously needs to break from post 1 or his chances might be doomed, and he is not the very best gate horse. Compensates for that with an extremely quick first few strides, and I expect him to lead this race. Turned in one of the faster 2yo maiden performances of 2025 – and did that with gas still in the tank. Worked back a couple times, then had to go out of training with relatively minor problems. After coming back into trainer C DeVaux’s Fair Grounds barn, the horse got onto a work pattern and does not seem to have missed a beat. Granted, the FG surface was playing fast, but Englishman, even accounting for that, still ran very fast in his comeback start, albeit against overmatched competition. Can’t overstate the ease with which he won that race – rider never asked for a thing. Breezes like a special horse. But does have a formidable foe in CRUDE VELOCITY. Crude Velocity overcame a difficult trip to win his debut at 10-1. Back four weeks later, he was 1-2 in a first-level allowance and racing with blinkers off. Kaboom! Monster win. He works as well as Englishman, though note the vast difference in approach, with regard to works, between the two trainers. Supporters of either colt will feel like they’re getting a great price on their horse since the other side will be taking money, too. SECURED FREEDOM simply stubbed his toe the last two starts because he doesn’t want to route. This one-turn mile, that’s more his game, and now he can come forward from this first two outings.
Ninth Race
1. Remember Mamba
2. Stark Contrast
3. Black Hornet
REMEMBER MAMBA really needs more distance than this 1 1/16 miles for his best, and he’s drawn wide, but I’m taking him on top anyway. STARK CONTRAST is going to draw all the attention here, and Remember Mamba, favored his first three outs, ought to bring some value. Won his first two on sheer talent, overwhelming overmatched foes, but stepped up considerably in class to capture the Transy last out at KEE. Nowhere near the leaders turning for home, wandering about while wide at the eighth pole, and then – whoosh. Pedal to the metal the last 100 yards to run them all down. I see him improving off the last start and getting more pace to run at. Stark Contrast is good though! Knew he was well above standard for a SoCal 2yo turf route horse – but didn’t know he was good enough to run as he did in the Breeders’ Cup. Can’t even rule out that he might have beaten the Aidan O’Brien-trained favorite there with better racing luck. No shame getting run down by Derby runner Fulleffort last out in race he probably “needed.” If you think BLACK HORNET just couldn’t stand up on Turfway’s synthetic surface, have at him on his return to turf. Two good grass races, including the stakes score over two horses who came back to win Keeneland turf allowance contests.
Tenth Race
1. Disruptor
2. T O Elvis
3. Knightsbridge
Didn’t think DISRUPTOR was any sort of Grade 1 horse when he came back from a long layoff this year, but could not have been more impressed with his two ’26 races. Jan. 31 was a paid workout. In the Challenger, to me, he toyed with a good horse, return rival Disco Time, and while that was 1 1/16 miles around two turns, I like him even better in this one-turn 7 furlong spot. And as good as the horse looked in the afternoon, he’s been even flashier in the morning! Spine-tingling workout video. The minor upset is on. Knew that T O ELVIS had a reputation in Japan and among international racing gurus, but was not prepared for what I found watching all his races. This horse is really, really good. Versatile, gets in and out of spots, has a huge run. Can’t see how he could be as high as his 30-1 morning line, but if he is, all the better. Never thought going into this handicapping I’d be picking against KNIGHTSBRIDGE, who showed vast talent from the very start of his career and has been crushing everything in his path since returning in November from a layoff. I’ll say this, though: Gulfstream is a track that can really flatter a horse, and nothing that Knightsbridge has beaten during his streak can hold a candle to the competition he meets here.
Eleventh Race
1. Rhetorical
2. Mercante
3. Make Me King
I suppose that 1 1/8 miles is a question for RHETORICAL, whose best races came at one mile and who has never gone beyond 1 1/8 miles. But the distance is an even bigger question for the several 1 1/2-mile types in the G1 Turf Classic. Rhetorical ran well in the Maker’s Mark Mile, his first race after a winter break, but he can do better. Never really got into a good rhythm that day while stuck down in cramped quarters. I think he’ll be fine at the 9f and is just better than these. MERCANTE might or might not be quite the same horse he was one year ago when a good second in this race. Did he run worse in the 2026 KY Cup Classic at Turfway than he did in 2025? Probably somewhat, but he got a lousy, lousy trip last out. Sits at a very, very appealing 12-1 on the morning line. Overseas shipper MAKE ME KING nowhere near top class in Europe – but he’s good enough to contend here. Solid form for a couple years and exits a stronger 1 1/8-mile race than this one, the $5 million Dubai Turf, where he did not have clean passage through the homestretch.
Thirteenth Race
1. Small Town
2. Gilded Bandit
3. Hulkamania
Taking a little shot here with SMALL TOWN in hopes this is a dirt horse who has made his first three starts on a synthetic surface. Won the debut nicely enough, failed to stretch out second time, and his last run looks better than the speed figure – gave chase to loose on lead, fast sprinter Outfielder. Has been working with graded-stakes turf horse Stark Contrast, holding his own in their last drill, at least. GILDED BANDIT (with blinkers on for Mott) won an extended duel with the well-meant B Cox-trained Deep Flame last month at KEE, those two a mile ahead of the rest. Does he regress off that? Probably not – Mott has a good record with last-start maiden winners going into races like this. Can excuse HULKAMANIA’s fading finish against stronger foes in the two-turn Tampa Bay Derby, but his 7f debut win wasn’t quite sharp enough to make me think he can go out and win this.
Fourteenth Race
1. Big Jake
2. Sleeping Warrior
3. Boylston
BIG JAKE is listed at 8-1, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him favored. The SoCal work video is very encouraging, including a recent drill where he held his own with graded-stakes class Desert Gate. Looks like a horse who’ll suit this 7f distance and well drawn for a favorable stalking trip. If morning work is any guide, we know that SLEEPING WARRIOR will at least beat Brave Pilot – they worked together from the gate on April 16 and it was no contest. Sleeping Warrior broke well, looks very fast, has the long work pattern suggestive of a debut horse fit and ready to go. BOYLSTON also has breezed to my eye with verve, on video at KEE and in person Sunday at CD. Rail draw in a big field going 7f, however, is no bueno.
Daily Racing Form is the most trusted source for horse racing news and information. Get an edge when you play the races with DRF.com.
Get DRF’s Complete Derby Betting Package with PPs, Clocker Reports & Expert Picks
Access Full Past Performances and Expert Analysis for Today’s Races at DRF.com
Get more Daily Racing Form horse racing picks on a daily basis on our VSiN Horse Racing page.
