Kentucky Derby Day Best Bets

It’s Kentucky Derby Day! Pour your Mint Julep (actually don’t, they are highly overrated) and let’s dive into a phenomenal day of racing!

>>More picks from VSiN horse racing experts.

Kentucky Derby, Churchill Downs, Race #12

We have made it with a full field of 20 heading to the gate in the Run for the Roses. The conversation has to start with #17 Fierceness, who will break as the favorite. He has run two races that are simply better than the rest of this field, but he has also run very poorly twice in his 5 career starts. In both of those bad efforts, he had trip trouble in the race so there are excuses, but in a field of 20, it seems unlikely he won’t face some adversity. That being said, he drew very well in this spot. He should have the opportunity to sit just off the pace outside in the clear. That’s the spot where he has run his best races in the past and, like I said, he’s simply faster then this bunch if he brings his best.

#7 Honor Marie offers a nice price alternative at 20-1. He should flourish with the added ground today, he wants every bit of the mile and a quarter, and has been coming around mentally. You can see the maturity from the Risen Star to the Louisiana Derby. If the lightbulb comes on today, watch out.

To his outside, #8 Just A Touch comps well to last year’s winner Mage. He has only run three times in his career, but has improved with each start. He ran an excellent 2nd last time out to Sierra Leone, but had to do all the dirty work early work up front while attending a quick early pace. 

#4 Chasing Freedom enters the race off an impressive Louisiana Derby win where he was further back than expected in the early going. He should show more speed today, which should help. But from the 4 post, he could be in a world of hurt if he breaks poorly. Flavian Prat should be considered a key factor here. He gave wonderful rides to both Angel of Empire and Country House in this race with less than ideal posts.

#6 Just Steel is the Johnny-try-hard horse of the field with the most racing experience. He ran 2nd last time out in the Arkansas Derby to Muth. If Muth was here, he would be the 2nd choice. He’s worth using underneath at 20-1.

#5 Catalytic will be a big number on the board, but I liked what I saw in the Florida Derby. He chased Fierceness all the way around the track that day and lost ground on both turns. That was his first time going two turns so he should improve if he can get a clean trip.

I haven’t mentioned #2 Sierra Leone yet, and that’s because I am going to play against him. Sure he can win, but this post is absolutely brutal. He will be last under the wire for the first time and would need to fire huge and get a perfect trip to be able to win. I just don’t think the odds are right.

Picks – 17-7-8-4
Bets – 
$50 Win – 17
$5 Trifecta – 17 / 4,7,8 / 4,7,8
$1 Superfecta – 17 / 4,7,8 / 4,5,6,7,8 / 4,5,6,7,8
$1 Superfecta – 7,8 / 4,7,8 / 4,6,7,8 / 4,5,6,7,8

Derby City Distaff, Churchill Downs, Race #6

Last time out #10 Vahva ran 2nd to Alva Starr who is back today, but that was first off the layoff with a less then ideal trip. I like her to turn the tables today while getting a solid staking trip. The price should be decent as well since you’ve got Alva Starr in the race.

$50 Win #10

American Turf Stakes, Churchill Downs, Race #9

Let’s take a shot with a price here. I respect the #5 quite a bit, but the price on #10 Set is too good to pass up at 10-1. He’s 2 for 2 in his career while being forwardly paced in both starts. The final ¼ of a mile in both were very, very fast and project to put him right there even with the step up in class.

$50 Win #10

Churchill Downs Stakes, Churchill Downs, Race #10

One of my favorite horses in training, #4 Mr. Wireless returned to the track in dominant fashion last time out winning impressively at six furlongs. He’s been more of a two-turn horse in his career, but after that last sprint, his trainer is keeping him at one turn and I like the move. He has tactical speed and should get pace to chase here. 

$50 Win #4