Mr. Ed’s Churchill Downs Best Bets
CHURCHILL DOWNS BEST BETS: All good race meets must come to an end. While football fans have had their Super Bowl and BCS Championship, horse racing fans like Mr. Ed await their Triple Crown season, which kicks off next Saturday with the Kentucky Derby, followed by the Preakness on May 18 at Pimlico and the Belmont (at Saratoga) on June 8. Next, the annual Saratoga meet runs from July 11 through Labor Day, with Keeneland reopening on October 3. The Breeders’ Cup rounds out the major-league racing calendar on November 1 and 2 at Del Mar. Add them all up and you have horseplayer Mr. Ed’s favorite time of the year!
TRACKING MR. ED: Hitting two Exactas last Saturday for a total return of $76.50 on posted plays of $140.00 resulted in a net loss of $63.50. Several other selections ran well, only to result in bad beats. File under woulda, coulda, shoulda syndrome. I firmly believe profitable days are ahead, starting with this evening’s challenging 10-race card at Churchill Downs. Make note: Besides contributing to VSiN’s Kentucky Derby Guide, Mr. Ed will be posting selections next week on both the Kentucky Oaks day races on Friday and the 150th Kentucky Derby card on Saturday.
NEWS & NOTES: Triple Crown winner Justify, popular champion Gun Runner and jockey Joel Rosario have all been elected to the Racing Hall of Fame in their first year of eligibility. Their induction ceremony will take place on August 2 in Saratoga Springs, NY. Baffert backers lost the court appeal in the final effort to lift Kentucky’s suspension. His Muth is listed at 3-1 in the Preakness future book. Post position draws for the Kentucky Oaks and the Derby will take place at 7:15 p.m. ET/4:15 p.m. PT today at Churchill Downs. Post time for the Derby on Saturday, May 4: 6:57 p.m. ET/3:57 p.m. PT.
MR. ED’S ELITE 11: (in no particular order) 1. Sierra Leone; 2. Catching Freeman; 3. Stronghold; 4. Forever Young; 5. Dornoch; 6. Fierceness; 7. Just a Touch; 8. Mystic Dan; 9. Honor Marie; 10. Encino and 11. Just Steel. (pitch the remaining 9)
MR. ED’S CHURCHILL DOWNS BEST BETS (First post at 6:00 p.m. ET/3:00 p.m. PT)
Race 3 (6:56 p.m. ET/3:56 PT) — $54K Starter Allowance at 6 furlongs for fillies & mares, 3YOs & up
Mr. Ed likes a trio: #1 TRAVAILLE (5-1 morning line) for Catalano and Curtis; #3 THESTRAL (4-1) for Amoss and Saez, and #5 EVIE’S ENCORE (7-2) for Hartman and Jose Ortiz.
Churchill Downs Best Bet: $5 Exacta Box of 1,3,5. ($30)
Race 7 (9:40 p.m. ET/6:40 a.m. PT) — $127K Allowance at 1 1/16-mile on turf for fillies & mares, 3YOs & up
I like # 8 HAY STACK (5-1 morning line), trained by super sharp Whit Beckman and ridden by up-and-comer Jareth Loveberry. The expensive daughter of War Front sports the best recent speed figure. Both #2 TITUBA (7-2) and #3 LA PACHANGA (5-1) pose a threat to the top choice.
Churchill Downs Best Bet: $10 to Win and $5 Exacta boxes with 2 & 3. ($30)
Race 8 (10:14 p.m. ET/7:14 p.m. PT) — $120K Maiden Special Weight at 1 ¼-mile for fillies & mares, 3YOs & up.
In Leg 1 of a Pick 3, Mr. Ed spreads backing #1 JUST BASKING (3-1 morning line) with veteran Joseph Talamo in the irons; #5 MYSTICAL CHANT (7-2) with hot Jose Ortiz riding; #10 AVA’S LOOK (5-1) ridden by versatile Junior Alvarado, and #11 FORSEEN (9-2) guided by top jock Tyler Gaffalione.
Churchill Downs $1 Best Pick 3 in Races 8-10.
Race 8: 1,5,10,11
Race 9: 3,5,6,9,10
Race 10: 3,8,9 ($60)
Race 9 (10:46 p.m. ET/7:46 p.m. PT) — $200K ROXELANA STAKES at 6 furlongs for fillies & mares, 4YOs & up
In a super-competitive feature race, Mr. Ed goes five deep in effort to set up a big payday in closing Pick 3. I’ll use #3 SPEEDY TRAVELER (9-2 morning line); #5 ZEITLOS (4-1); #6 DAZZLING BLUE (3-1); #9 SOCIALLY SELECTIVE (6-1); and #10 CURRENT CLIMATE (8-1).
Race 10 (11:17 p.m. ET/8:17 p.m. PT) — $58K Maiden Claiming at 6 furlongs for fillies & mares, 3YOs & up
Mr. Ed likes #9 RUBIA (5-1 morning line) for HOF trainer Steve Asmussen and leading Keeneland meet jockey Jose Ortiz. The costly daughter of Tapiture cuts back and drops to lowest level in search of a first win. Today’s her day. In addition, I’ll use #3 STARCOURT (4-1) and #8 COMPUTADORA (12-1).
Churchill Downs Best Bet: $10 to Win and three-way $5 Exacta Box of 3,8,9. ($40)
TOTAL WAGERS: $160
