Kentucky Derby Preview
We hope all our VSiN subscribers checked out our Kentucky Derby Betting Guide from earlier this week for Saturday’s Run for the Roses.
Of course, horse handicapping can be a fluid exercise. The 20-horse field for the Kentucky Derby was drawn last Saturday, and we always hope that the field is set in stone. But the truth is it can be just as hard to rely on that as it is when handicapping football, having to check the injury reports every day or pro basketball with “load management” wreaking havoc on the nightly lineups. That’s why they also put two colts on the also-eligible list.
If you remember last year, we had three (Practical Move, Lord Miles and Continuar) scratched during the week leading up to the Kentucky Derby for various reasons. Then, Forte, the morning line favorite, was scratched on Saturday morning by state veterinarians due to a minor bruise in his front right foot. Only 18 ran in that Derby.
On Tuesday, #9 Encino, the wire-to-wire winner of the Grade 3 Lexington Stakes at Keeneland and 20-1 on the morning line, was scratched due to a soft tissue strain in his front right leg. That allowed #21 Epic Ride, the third-place finisher of the Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland, to draw into the field.
So, we still have a 20-horse field (with #22 Mugatu the next to draw in if another 3-year-old is declared from the race) and everyone from #10 T O Password and out moving in one stall in the starting gate and Epic Ride breaking from the outside post.
I gave my early “takes” in the Betting Guide, but I promised to update here on the VSiN.com website later in the week, due to the fact we were preparing to adjust some of our handicapping depending on who dropped out of the race and how it could impact the pace, etc.
Without further ado, let’s repeat most of that with the updated field and more detail.
What I like to do is break down my choices into the most likely winner (for those who like to bet the favorites or top contenders and who aren’t as adverse to chalk, like yours truly), then my top value play that is my “official Derby pick” if anyone asks me here at VSiN, online or in the Las Vegas race books between now and 3:57 p.m. PDT (adjusting for your time zone: 6:57 p.m. EDT/5:57 p.m. CDT/4:57 p.m. MDT/12:57 p.m. HAWAII, where I will be for the Belmont!), then other long shots to consider and use in the exotic wagers like exactas, trifectas, superfectas, etc.
Most Likely Kentucky Derby Winner
#17 Fierceness (5-2 morning line): The defending 2-year-old champion is the heavy favorite off his impressive Florida Derby win. Even though I’m a self-proclaimed longshot player, I won’t mind if Fierceness wins the Run For The Roses, as I have a piece of him at 19-1 bought back in March. He could go wire-to-wire like he did in his last race or can sit just off the pace like he did in his Breeders’ Cup Juvenile victory. I mentioned in the Betting Guide, and I’m sure you’ve heard elsewhere that no horse has ever won the Derby from the #17 post position, but with the scratch of Encino, Fierceness now actually breaks from #16. If you haven’t heard the joke “Now he can win the Derby,” I predict you will hear it by post time either from a dad or on the hours-long Derby broadcast.
Top Value Play
#1 Dornoch (20-1): In addition to the #17 curse, even novice horseplayers have heard how hard it is to win from Post #1. However, I maintain that those are statistical anomalies and the right horse can win from anywhere (like Big Brown from #20 in 2008). If you throw out his last race in the Blue Grass when he didn’t get to the lead, Dornoch’s early speed can put him right in contention early – and breaking from the rail, his connections pretty much have to send him to the front.
With most people avoiding the #1, we should get a fair price for him to steal this. In fact, since giving this out in the Betting Guide, I like Dornoch even more due to the scratch of Encino, as he was probably going to be one of the top early-speed horses to challenge Dornoch from the start, so, hopefully, our pick won’t be pushed too hard early and have more left. Now I’ve already heard many people say they’re throwing out Dornoch for any of the above reasons, especially that he’s “cheap speed” and will be outclassed, but let me point out that he won three races in a row, including the Grade 2 Remsen at Aqueduct and the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream.
Neighsayers (see what I did there? I told you I love dad jokes!) will say he’s facing much tougher competition here, but if you watched enough horse racing in your life, you’ve seen many times where people discounted the front-runner (even saying silly things during the race like “he’s going too fast”) and then no one was able to catch them in the stretch. It happens, even in major stakes races, so he’s worth a flier at Win and Place.
Other Longshots to Consider
#18 Stronghold (20-1): In most years, the Santa Anita Derby winner would be given more respect. That’s OK, as we’ll be using him as a colt that should be right next to Fierceness from the start and draft right behind him turning for home. You’ll also hear – again, if you haven’t already – that Stronghold now breaks from the winless #17 gate, but as I’ve said, I don’t put much stock in these things, as you can clearly see from my picks.
#5 Catalytic (30-1): Most people will ignore the other runners in the Florida Derby after Fierceness obliterated second-place finisher Catalytic by 13 lengths (and the others by more), but I’m a forgiving handicapper and have no trouble including the Florida Derby runner-up as he was just the second-best racehorse on the track that day.
#16 Grand Mo the First (50-1): Ditto everything I said about Catalytic. He ran third in the Florida Derby, and this is what we in the industry call a “key race.” We wouldn’t be surprised if the same three from Florida also hit the board in Kentucky.
My Game Plan for Betting the Kentucky Derby
As stated above, #1 Dornoch is my top value play, so I’m betting him to Win and Place. If the public ignores him like I expect, and his odds rise even higher than 20-1, I’ll probably bet more. I know a lot of people will say he’s “dead on the board” and “has no chance,” but the honest truth is that his chances stay the same (and he doesn’t know the difference) regardless of what the tote board says. So if the betting market is going to let us get more value for our buck, we’ll take it. This approach has served me well over the years.
With such a huge field, I’m not opposed to betting more than one horse to Win, so if #18 Stronghold, #5 Catalytic or #16 Grand Mo the First go off at higher than their morning-line odds, I’ll at least have something on them to Win as well, even if you want to call it a “saver.” I’ve cashed more of these bets than my top picks over the years, starting with Giacomo at 50-1 in 2005. That year, I was looking for a closer, and it came down to Giacomo and Wilko. I had given out Wilko in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at 28-1 the previous fall in my column for Daily Racing Form and some seminars here in Vegas, so I was biased and landed on Wilko as my official Derby pick (but I was smart enough to also bet Giacomo).
The Derby field lends itself to massive payoffs in the exotic pools, so I’ll also be boxing my first choices (1-5-16-17-18) in exacta, trifectas and superfectas just in case.
You never know.
Best of luck with your Derby picks, and enjoy the day.
