Betting on Major League Baseball can be extremely fun, especially if you know what you’re doing. With a 162-game season, there’s no shortage of opportunities to get in on the action. There’s also nothing like having some plays on day games, giving you a little something to pay attention to — and hide from your bosses — during the work week.
Whether you’re just dipping your toes into MLB betting or you’re a seasoned pro, having the right strategies in place can help you make better picks and, hopefully, win more bets. That said, keep reading for some proven tips and strategies for betting on baseball.
Also, make sure you bookmark the author page of VSiN Managing Editor Adam Burke, who is widely praised for the detail he goes into with his daily MLB best bets stories. Do the same with VSiN Analytics Director Steve Makinen, who puts out a daily MLB betting trends report with game-changing information. If that’s not enough, VSiN analyst Greg Peterson usually drops us his favorite MLB pick of the day. We also talk about baseball regularly on our VSiN live programming, so if you’re an MLB bettor then you should really look into becoming a subscriber!
Utilize all the free statistics you have at your disposal
There’s more to betting than win-loss records. Look at traditional stats like:
- OPS (On-base Plus Slugging): A solid measure of offensive power
- WHIP (Walks plus Hits per Inning Pitched): Shows how well a pitcher controls the game
- Run differential: Helps gauge how strong a team really is
- Home vs. away performance: Some teams thrive at home but struggle on the road
However, don’t stop with just those numbers. You’ll often hear us referencing advanced stats like wOBA, wRC+ and FIP. These can help you find some edges that your average fan doesn’t look for. And the numbers can be found out there. Adam Burke has a glossary on the website listing some of the metrics he likes, what they mean and how you can use them.
Resources like FanGraphs and Baseball Savant should be bookmarked during baseball season. If you want to win, learning how to utilize key metrics is a must.
Weigh the starting pitcher matchup heavily
Starting pitchers set the tone for a game, so knowing who’s on the mound is key. Before placing a bet, take a look at:
- Recent performance – factoring in pitch counts, traditional statistics and advanced statistics
- How they’ve fared against the opposing team
- Home/away splits
- Any injury concerns or signs of fatigue (even elite pitchers can have bad days, so don’t just look at names — dig into the details)
Our analytics guru Steve Makinen has his own numbers that rank each team’s starting pitchers on his Power Ratings page.
Having a good read on the battle on the hill is crucial. As previously mentioned, it can set the tone for moneyline and total plays. However, it can also give you an opportunity to bet First 5 Innings plays. We actually have a First 5 Inning analyzer for subscribers!
Don’t sleep on the bullpens
The starters might get the headlines, but the bullpen often decides games. Check out a team’s bullpen ERA, recent workload and depth to see if they can hold a lead or will implode late in the game.
Makinen also has bullpen numbers up on the Power Ratings page, and you can find bullpen ERA out there with a simple search.
Look for value by betting underdogs
Baseball is unpredictable — favorites don’t always win. Even the best teams drop plenty of games each season, making underdog bets a great way to do some damage on the sportsbook of your choosing. If the pitching matchup is favorable, an underdog might just surprise you.
Track line movement and weigh betting splits
Smart bettors keep an eye on how betting lines move. If the majority of the public is backing a favorite and the line shifts toward the underdog, it might be a sign that sharp bettors see an edge. Paying attention to these trends can help you spot great bets.
Make sure you check out our VSiN betting splits, where we have real-time DraftKings Sportsbook and Circa Sports numbers on how games are being bet. Circa is viewed as one of the sharpest sportsbooks in the world, so you can learn a lot from those betting splits. However, it doesn’t hurt to compare to the DraftKings ones. You get more volume with DraftKings.
Consider the importance of umpires and weather
- Umpire tendencies: Some umps have tight strike zones, leading to higher-scoring games, while others favor pitchers
- Weather conditions: Wind blowing out can mean more home runs, while cold weather can slow down offenses
We have our own VSiN umpire analysis page for subscribers.
Look into player prop markets and live betting
MLB betting isn’t just about picking sides and totals. You can also bet on how many strikeouts a pitcher will rack up, total bases for hitters in favorable spots — shout out to any hitters playing at Coors Field — and a bunch of different kinds of fun markets. We have a lot of VSiN hosts and analysts that dish out their favorite player prop picks on our live shows, and we have plenty of those picks and predictions on the website.
Live betting is another option. If a big favorite goes down early in a game, you might be able to get a very favorable price on that team to come back. Similarly, if a game you expected to be higher in scoring has a scoreless inning or two to start things off, you can probably bet the Over at a much lower number.
Manage your bankroll
Bet smart, not reckless. Set a budget, stick to it and don’t chase losses. As we mention somewhat regularly, betting on baseball can be profitable. There’s no denying that. However, you want this to be fun, and you don’t want it to turn into something problematic. Only bet what you can afford to lose, and avoid making decisions you will regret down the line. If you catch yourself doing that, help is out there!
Conclusion
Winning in MLB betting takes research, patience, and a bit of strategy. By focusing on key factors like pitching, team stats, betting trends, advanced metrics and external influences like weather, you can make better decisions. Stick to your game plan, avoid emotional bets and enjoy the ride. Cashin’ tickets is what it’s all about!
