Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Sunday, September 27, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Home favorites/pick ’ems playing in the last game of an interleague series, lost their last game and facing an opponent who exhausted their bullpen for 5+ innings last game have gone 55-28 SU for +11.96 units (ROI: 14.4%) in the last six seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-168 vs COL), PHILADELPHIA (-175 vs TB)
Teams who lost their previous game to a divisional rival from blowing a save have gone 182-97 SU (+45.93 units, ROI: 16.5%) as a pick ’em or favorite in the same-series follow-up game since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): ARIZONA (-148 at SD)
Trend: SEA is 37-16 (+11.15 units) at home with starter Logan Gilbert versus AL opponents with a <=0.580 win pct since the start of the 2021 season
Trend Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-168 vs LAA)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The two-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, these teams are around the profitability line at 219-177 for +0.36 units (ROI: 0.1%).
System Match (PLAY): NY METS (-112 at WSH)
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game went 65-69 for -22.93 units when not matched up against similar in 2025. This represents an ROI of -17.1% and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen has to be accounted for in all games. This is a go-against angle, which can often prove as or more valuable than systems that suggest backing teams. For 2026, these teams are 68-59 for -11.34 units for an ROI of -8.9%.
System Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-175 vs TB)
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another go-against angle that does well. For the 2026 season, these teams are again struggling, 102-141 for -43.76 units and an ROI of -18%!
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES (-120 vs BAL), LA DODGERS (-250 at SF), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-169 vs COL), ATLANTA (+100 at MIA)
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid fade angle! For 2026, with a couple weeks left, they are now 164-249 start for -32.42 units (-7.8% ROI) after losing about 45 units over the last three months.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATHLETICS (+158 vs HOU), SAN FRANCISCO (+202 vs LAD), CINCINNATI (+149 at TOR), COLORADO (+139 at CWS), KANSAS CITY (-108 vs CLE)
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference between teams is <19%
In the last three regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 427-241 record, but for -131.5 units. This has been an ROI of -19.7%! The 2025 record was 120-59 for -13.3 units. The 2026 record is 120-64 for -22.54 units, ROI -12.3%!
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOUSTON (-193 at ATH), LA DODGERS (-250 at SF), MILWAUKEE (-206 vs STL)
Overpriced better bullpen without big starting pitcher edge angle was 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 242-160, but for -117.36 units in the 2023-25 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -29.2%, very solid results. In 2025, these teams were measurably better but still lost -1.48 units for the season. The 2026 teams are off to a 44-27 start for -17.01 units, and an ROI of -24%!
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-250 at SF)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings in the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season has been slower than usual, 331-400 for -23.91 units, ROI -3.3%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): BOSTON (+104 vs CHC), TAMPA BAY (+144 at PHI), MINNESOTA (-105 vs TEX), LA ANGELS (+139 at SEA), ATLANTA (+100 at MIA), SAN DIEGO (+119 vs AZ)
Better bullpen small favorite teams in the -106 to -126 range are thriving in 2026
So far in 2026, small favorite teams in the -106 to -126 line range with a SM Bullpen Rating edge have fared quite well. Last season this was about a -6% ROI angle. However, there is some foundation to the system in that with teams this closely matched together by the oddsmakers, it can often be good bullpen performance that separates the teams. For 2026 so far, these teams are 264-185 for +45.34 units, an ROI of +10.1%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY YANKEES (-120 vs BAL), NY METS (-112 at WSH), CLEVELAND (-112 at KC), PITTSBURGH (-117 at DET)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-2025 regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they are off to a 184-225 start for -55.41 units (ROI -13.5%).
System Match (FADE): DETROIT (-103 vs PIT)
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, and it is now 172-196 for +4.34 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-175 vs TB), SAN FRANCISCO (+202 vs LAD), KANSAS CITY (-108 vs CLE), ST LOUIS (+169 at MIL)
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #2: Teams wrapping up a series and riding at least a 3-game losing streak are 493-514 but for +36.70 units and an ROI of 3.6% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN FRANCISCO (+202 vs LAD), PHILADELPHIA (-175 vs TB), KANSAS CITY (-108 vs CLE), ST LOUIS (+169 at MIL)
MLB Series Betting System #4: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a reasonably good investment in the final game of a series, going 835-1090 but for +26.23 units and an ROI of 1.4% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TAMPA BAY (+144 at PHI), CINCINNATI (+149 at TOR), COLORADO (+139 at CWS), LA ANGELS (+139 at SEA), ST LOUIS (+169 at MIL)
MLB Series Betting System #9: Big home favorites of -180 or more closing out a divisional series have been a solid investment lately, going 175-72 for +14.42 units and an ROI of 5.8% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-206 vs STL)
MLB Series Betting System #12: Home favorites/pick ’ems playing in the last game of an interleague series, lost their last game and facing an opponent who exhausted their bullpen for 5+ innings last game have gone 55-28 SU for +11.96 units (ROI: 14.4%) in the last six seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-168 vs COL), PHILADELPHIA (-175 vs TB)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 2251-2135 (51.3%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -283.57 units. This represents an ROI of -6.5%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND (-112 at KC), COLORADO (+143 at CWS), TAMPA BAY (+144 at PHI), SAN DIEGO (+123 vs AZ), HOUSTON (-192 at ATH)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2,333-2,915 (44.5%) for -262.91 units and an ROI of -5% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (-126 at BOS), ST LOUIS (+169 at MIL)
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 698-581 (54.6%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +24.32 units, for an ROI of 1.9%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATHLETICS (+158 vs HOU), WASHINGTON (-109 vs NYM)
Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 367-322 (53.3%) for +27.44 units and an ROI of 4% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATHLETICS (+158 vs HOU), PHILADELPHIA (-175 vs TB)
Divisional blown saves lead to bounce-back
Teams who lost their previous game to a divisional rival from blowing a save have gone 182-97 SU (+45.93 units, ROI: 16.5%) as a pick ’em or favorite in the same-series follow-up game since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): ARIZONA (-148 at SD)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #7:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 343-353 run (+14.43 units, ROI: 2.1%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN FRANCISCO (+202 vs LAD), PHILADELPHIA (-175 vs TB)
Winning Streak Betting System #1:
Teams that have won their last three games and are road favorites versus an opponent with a losing record have gone 121-50 (+34.11 units, ROI: 19.9%) in their last 171 tries.
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-112 at KC)
Winning Streak Betting System #10:
Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 169-176 (-81.33 units, ROI: -23.6%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-206 vs STL)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Theoretically, green star “edges” come up when a team has an odds edge of 15 cents over the actual price. That is a legacy thing. However, this year I have recorded that a 10-cent edge is actually better, as teams with an edge of 10 cents against the actual odds have gone 674-679 for +7.10 units, good for +0.5% ROI.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: MINNESOTA -105 (+21 diff), SAN FRANCISCO +202 (+16), ATHLETICS +158 (+14), ATLANTA +100 (+14)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: MILWAUKEE -206 (+36 diff), CLEVELAND -112 (+35), CHICAGO WHITE SOX -169 (+32), NY METS -112 (+19), NY YANKEES -120 (+14)
If you’re looking for something that has produced with a little less ROI but provides more opportunities, consider the situation where on Underprojections so far when the simulation shows at least a 0.6 run edge, Unders are 126-103 for +10.15 units and an ROI of 4.4%.
Ratings Matches: CLE-KC UNDER 8.5 (-0.9), AZ-SD UNDER 8 (-0.9)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(951) LOS ANGELES-NL (99-62) at (952) SAN FRANCISCO (65-96)
Trend: SF is 23-39 (-16.61 units) in day games this season
Trend Match (FADE): SAN FRANCISCO (+201 vs LAD)
(955) ST LOUIS (77-84) at (956) MILWAUKEE (102-59)
Trend: STL is 60-28 (+20.16 units) on the run line as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY): ST LOUIS (+1.5 at MIL)
(957) ARIZONA (86-75) at (958) SAN DIEGO (90-71)
Trend: Under the total is 44-32-4 (+8.80 units) in AZ road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): AZ-SD (o/u at 8)
(961) HOUSTON (80-81) at (962) ATHLETICS (64-97)
Trend: Over the total is 49-28-3 (+18.20 units) in ATH home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): HOU-ATH (o/u at 10)
(967) LOS ANGELES-AL (62-99) at (968) SEATTLE (75-86)
Trend: SEA is 47-85 (-30.65 units) on the run line as a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (FADE): SEATTLE (-1.5 vs LAA)
Trend: Yusei Kikuchi’s teams are 17-15 (+8.89 units) when he starts as a day game underdog of +105 or more in career
Trend Match (PLAY): LA ANGELS (+139 at SEA)
Trend: SEA is 37-16 (+11.15 units) at home with starter Logan Gilbert versus AL opponents with a <=0.580 win pct since the start of the 2021 season
Trend Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-168 vs LAA)
(971) CHICAGO-NL (88-73) at (972) BOSTON (87-74)
Trend: CHC is 44-21 (+12.67 units) against teams with a < 0.57% win pct with starter Shota Imanaga since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-126 at BOS)
(973) TAMPA BAY (98-63) at (974) PHILADELPHIA (87-74)
Trend: Nick Martinez’s teams are 3-12 (-7.84 units) when he starts as a road underdog vs NL opponents since the beginning of the 2024 season
Trend Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (+144 at PHI)
Trend: PHI is 48-13 (+21.23 units) as a home favorites of -162 or higher with starter Zack Wheeler since the start of the 2020 season
Trend: PHI is 33-14 (+11.14 units) in the last 47 day game starts by Zack Wheeler
Trends Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-175 vs TB)
(975) CINCINNATI (75-86) at (976) TORONTO (78-83)
Trend: Over the total is 37-22-2 (+12.80 units) in CIN day games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CIN-TOR (o/u at 8.5)
Trend: Max Scherzer’s teams are 28-12 (+11.61 units) in his last 40 day game starts
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-176 vs CIN)
(977) COLORADO (58-103) at (978) CHICAGO-AL (83-78)
Trend: COL is 15-39 (-14.22 units) on the road in the last few seasons with starter Kyle Freeland
Trend: CWS is 9-5 (+3.91 units) with starter Anthony Kay at home this season
Trends Match (PLAY): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-169 vs COL)
Trend: Under the total is 13-5 (+7.65 units) in Colorado road day games with starter Kyle Freeland since the start of the 2023 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): COL-CWS (o/u at 8.5)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money & ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% three-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2, Majority handle groups have been steady when not too many of them hop on an underdog side since the beginning of the 2024 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 51-66%. These groups have gone 289-312 (48.1%) for a very minimal -1.8 units loss and an ROI of -0.3%. This represents an improvement of 8.2% on the overall numbers, and gives bettors a chance to stay afloat when they go against the grain.
System Match (CONSIDER): ATLANTA
DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: For as good as Majority handle bettors have been on huge home favorites since the beginning of last season, they are equally as bad on heavy road favorites of -200 or higher. This group is 156-81 (65.8%) for -37.06 units and an ROI of -15.6%. This has proven to be a brutal way to drain a bankroll quickly.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO CUBS, PHILADELPHIA, TORONTO, CHICAGO WHITE SOX, PITTSBURGH
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