MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Sunday, September 27.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
Our Opta AI MLB Player Prop Projections are also available.
1:05 PM Eastern
Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees
Orioles starting pitcher Shane Baz has pitched far better than the team’s 10-21 record in his starts would indicate, posting a 4.11 ERA and 3.62 fielding independent with 0.8 home runs per nine innings allowed. Elmer Rodriguez gets the start on the mound for the Yankees and has a 5.40 ERA with 7.1 strikeouts and 5.4 walks per nine innings. The Yankees may not be throwing their top relievers considering they are locked into the Wild Card Round of the playoffs starting on Tuesday.
Pick: Orioles Moneyline +120 and Over 7.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Orioles +106 and Total 8.2
3:05 PM Eastern
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Phillies starting pitcher Zack Wheeler has rebounded nicely after some struggles coming out of the All-Star Break, allowing three runs or fewer in five straight starts. Overall this season, he has a 3.06 ERA with 10.8 strikeouts per nine innings. Rays starting pitcher Nick Martinez has pitched to a ton of contact with only 5.5 strikeouts per nine innings, and his 3.97 fielding independent with 1.1 home runs per nine innings allowed points toward regression.
Pick: Phillies Moneyline -130 and Over 7 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Phillies -149 and Total 7.7
3:10 PM Eastern
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Jacob Misiorowski has essentially locked up the Cy Young Award with a 1.86 ERA and 13.1 strikeouts per nine innings, and thus he won’t be going deep in this game, as it will be a tune-up for him to be ready to pitch Game 1 of the National League Divisional Series. He has the support of a lineup that leads the league in scoring at home with nearly 5.6 runs per game, but much of that lineup will be resting. The Cardinals give Andre Pallante the start, who is getting only 6.1 strikeouts per nine innings, yet has a solid 3.61 ERA while allowing only 0.6 home runs and 2.8 walks per nine innings. He is supported by a lineup that is third in road scoring with 5.2 runs per game.
Pick: Cardinals vs. Brewers Over 7 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 7.8
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago White Sox
Rockies starting pitcher Kyle Freeland has struggled in a big way with a 6.58 ERA while allowing 1.9 home runs per nine innings this season. White Sox starting pitcher Anthony Kay has been shaky of late as well, allowing at least three runs in five of his past six starts. He has a 4.53 ERA overall this season with 1.2 home runs and 3.2 walks per nine innings, but is supported by a lineup that is fifth in scoring with just under 4.8 runs per game. The White Sox bullpen is eighth in ERA at 3.68, while the Rockies are 27th with a 4.83 bullpen ERA.
Pick: White Sox Run Line -1.5 +105 and Over 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: White Sox -1.5 -113 and Total 9.2
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Detroit Tigers
Pirates starting pitcher Jared Jones has pitched better than his 3.87 ERA would indicate with a 3.29 fielding independent, 10.9 strikeouts and 1.1 home runs allowed per nine innings. However, the Pirates are the lowest-scoring team in the National League since the All-Star Break with less than 3.9 runs per game, while the Tigers lead the American League in scoring since the All-Star Break with over 4.8 runs per game. On the mound, River Ryan, who has a lifetime 1.16 ERA in his five MLB appearances covering 23 1/3 innings, figures to be the opener for Keider Montero. Montero owns a 3.48 ERA despite getting only 6.2 strikeouts per nine innings thanks to not hurting himself, as he is allowing one home run and 2.1 walks per nine innings.
Pick: Tigers Moneyline +113
Greg’s Handicap: Tigers -104
