2024 College Baseball Odds & Season Preview
The college baseball season starts this weekend. An event that tends to get overlooked during this busy segment of the sports betting calendar.
In mid February, most bettors first assess their Super Bowl performance then scan the futures portfolio to determine if any tweaks are needed to help with existing college basketball, NBA and NHL tickets.
Top MLB Resources:
When the time comes to start handicapping baseball, Major League Baseball usually gets priority.
That opening day though is still over a month away so try to carve out some time – and units – to examine the college baseball board.
The sport is slowly gaining steam as a spring betting option as it is much easier to wager on as compared to as recently as three years ago. All the major national sports books offer a futures board for the NCAA championship, and daily lines are becoming available.
DraftKings has become the go-to destination for college baseball bettors since it features the largest championship futures board and regularly offers the most daily sides and totals.
So let’s first take a look at some general ideas regarding college baseball betting and then the DraftKings’ futures board in preparation for this season.
How to Watch College Baseball
A mandatory tool for the college baseball handicapping process is a streaming subscription to ESPN+ and access to the SEC and ACC Networks. That is where the majority of live action games are available.
Strategy
Any wagers made now and prior to conference play should be with an emphasis on value and compiling assets in a futures portfolio.
For those who prefer betting favorites, look towards college basketball since the NCAA tournament is a month away.
The college baseball betting season is divided into multiple segments: regular season, conference tournament, NCAA tournament, College World Series and the championship series.
So any early season wagers for teams near the top of the board should be done with the idea that these odds will drop once the team(s) gets more recognition and progress further up the contender ladder. The middle and bottom of the odds board is better handicapping real estate to work with because there is value on teams there that have a path towards the NCAA tournament.
Longshot tickets that do make the tournament become useful assets to monetize in a double elimination format. Tip of the hat to Mike Palm, the Jonas Salk of sports betting who coined the term “monetizing a ticket” instead of referring to the more passive idea of hedging.
One of the best aspects of betting college baseball is the depth of the odds board, allowing for a number of opportunities to monetize tickets. Other than the SEC and the top ACC and Big 12 teams, there isn’t much difference in terms of talent and postseason capabilities for top mid-major programs compared to the remaining power conference schools.
With a longshot making the tournament, the ticket is positioned to be monetized. Bettors can then increase their wagering volume (in terms of the normal daily units) against the team in pocket since there is now a built in (inexpensive) insurance policy. Or they can just keep letting it ride if they like their position moving forward.
The monetization process here is easier than basketball since the extra elimination game and how it impacts the following day’s pitching matchup can reduce the amount of times going against your in pocket team.
For example, in the VSiN college basketball betting guide I wrote about taking Grand Canyon at 2,000-1 to win the national championship since if they get into the tournament with a higher than expected seed, that ticket bought with only a small wager can be monetized in Round 1. Obviously if the Antelopes pull off an upset from the start, more money is then needed to go against the two wagers already made.
Another option to at least contemplate with early season longshot tickets is if the sportsbook offers an early cash out option. It’s a stress free way to generate a profit.
The Top Heavy SEC
The SEC Network is a must-have for bettors because they can watch the best conference in the country and monitor the team that will likely dogpile in Omaha.
The last four national champions (LSU, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt) and nine since 2009 emerged from the SEC.
Just wait until next year when Texas and Oklahoma come aboard.
As for this year, of the 11 teams near the top of the odds board with 25-1 or less odds, six are from the SEC. Two more are just outside in the 35-1 range.
Favorites to win the College World Series
Wake Forest (+700), with once again an elite pitching staff, is the shortest shot on the board. The Wake Forest Pitching Lab produces superior arms and this year head coach Tom Walter will rely heavily on possibly the top pitcher in the nation in lefty Josh Hartle. There is also reliever turned starter Michael Massey and former Tennessee gunslinger Chase Burns.
Offensively, the Demon Deacons feature first baseman Nick Kurtz, a possible top pick in the MLB draft, to replace the power of Brock Wilken.
The speedy Seaver King comes to Winston-Salem via the portal from D2 Wingate.
Like last year, Wake is once again loaded with talent on the mound, the bats to outscore anyone and lofty aspirations.
That doesn’t mean bettors should jump on them now. The 7-1 is just too low. Might as well wait until the start of the College World Series to take them. Last year they came to Omaha as the No.1 team in the country and +250 odds to win it all. Making an investment at just 7-1 without any games being played yet is not worth the risk/reward when 2-1 comes later.
There is also an inherent issue betting early on Wake. This season the Demon Deacons enter as the favorite instead of last year when they started at 25-1. A concerning story line from last summer’s exit in Omaha was how the impressive offensive numbers this 54-win team compiled mostly at home in their hitter friendly ballpark didn’t translate well to the size and variable weather of Charles Schwab Field in late June.
Last year’s winner LSU (+750) once again starts at the top of the odds board even though Paul Skenes and Dylan Crews are in the professional ranks.
Slugger Tommy White is back to anchor the offense and Jared Jones will get more time at first base in hopes of adding even more homerun potential to the lineup.
The Tigers have a good chance of repeating because they are the best program in the country manipulating the transfer portal. A retooled rotation with Luke Holman, formerly of Alabama, leading the way should challenge Wake in an arms race.
The last program to win back-to-back titles was South Carolina, also out of the SEC. Even without Skenes and Crews, these Bayou Bengals are in a great position to repeat.
Just like Wake, the short odds don’t make an early season investment the best option.
Even if Wake or LSU start the regular season as expected their national championship odds will remain near their current number throughout the spring.
Remember there is less attention directed towards college baseball compared to basketball and football so the top of the odds boards tends to remain static until conference tournament time approaches.
Florida (+900) offers more meat on the odds bone for a legit contender. The Gators return the college version of Shohei Ohtani in Jac Caglianone who along with Cade Kurland, Luke Heyman and heralded transfers Colby Shelton (Alabama) and Brody Donay (Virginia Tech) could help the Gators once again lead the nation in homeruns.
Closer Brandon Neely could be the best late inning arm in the country.
Last season the Gators were one of my top plays and even though they ultimately fell to LSU, I was able to monetize tickets on them. At the start of the season I got them 15-1 and added some 4-1 plays when the Omaha odds board was released. I faded Wake and LSU in the CWS because their odds were so low. However when the Gators played the Tigers in the championship series and a new set of odds came out, then it was time to monetize the equity in the Florida tickets with an offset LSU play to secure a profit.
The SEC trio of Arkansas (+1100), Tennessee (+1300) and Vanderbilt (+1600) rounds out the Favorites. The odds are higher here than the others mentioned which looks more enticing for bettors but there are reasons they trail their fellow conference mates.
The Razorbacks have been a popular play the last few years but Dave Van Horn’s squad has faced injuries and bad luck since reaching the CWS final in 2018. Pitching won’t be an issue for Arkansas with lefties Hagen Smith and Mason Molina (Texas Tech) looking to dominate the weekends.
There might be some brand name odds inflation for the Volunteers and Commodores, who certainly can make it to Omaha, but should be priced with the next group of squads.
Tony Vitello still has the swagger and bats led by Blake Burke to score a lot of runs, both commonplace in Knoxville the past few years. The pitching staff will look different. Burns is gone leaving the heavy lifting to fall upon Drew Beam. The remaining slots in the rotation and bullpen need to still be figured out for the most part.
As for Vandy, it is a bonafide Top 10 team because of the lefty pitching duo of Devin Futrell and Carter Holton. The issues entering this season are replacing Nick Maldonado as the closer and the offensive output of Enrique Bradfield Jr. and the power of RJ Schreck.
This aforementioned group should make up a bulk of the eight teams heading off to Omaha. While CWS qualifiers are available on the DraftKings board, there isn’t much value for any of them. All are priced +175 or below with Wake and LSU going for -105.
The Next Group
This is the best aisle to start shopping and Oregon State (+2500) would look good in a cart. The Beavers belong in the Favorite Group over Tennessee and Vanderbilt. Call it the southern bias of college baseball.
OSU will have an easier trip through the conference schedule compared to the SEC clubs and there is an expectation of a Super Regional in Corvallis. Last year the Beavers fell short in the Baton Rouge Regional. In Travis Bazzana, they have one of the best all around bats in the country and a deep lineup with an experienced pitching staff.
It is a good ticket to put in pocket now because this team has the room (and odds) to gain more national attention once the season picks up.
Texas A&M (+2000) is on par with the rest of the SEC talent but is likely in this group because not every squad can be a favorite, and once again, books probably get more public play on Tennessee and Vanderbilt. Also pushing the Aggies down is a pitching staff that doesn’t have the same firepower as the SEC elite.
The Big 12, which annually competes against the ACC, for the best of the rest title below the SEC, has its own contenders in TCU (+2000) and Texas (+2500).
Last year TCU made a late season run, fueled by a Big 12 tournament crown, all the way to Omaha. In 2024, there are higher expectations and much lower odds (50-1) than last year. The Horned Frogs are another team banking on continuity, nonetheless, the loss of Top 20 MLB pick Brayden Taylor and their top bat Cole Fontenelle means bettors can take a measured approach to if Kirk Saarloos can keep the momentum going.
The Longhorns are the Big 12 team bettors should examine first. They won last year’s regular season title, made a Super Regional and have a great pitching combo in Tanner Witt and Lebarron Johnson Jr. Texas also got Will Gasparino from Harvard-Westlake to come to Austin for his freshman year instead of the MLB draft.
As of now DraftKings isn’t offering a regular season conference champion board but BetRivers is and Texas is an attractive +450 behind TCU at +300.
Virginia (+2500) starts the season in the shadow of Wake Forest and on par with Clemson (+2800). UVA will once again be an elite hitting squad with the return of Griff O’Ferrall who rakes with an average pushing .400. Bad news is the departure of catcher Kyle Teel, the bedrock of the program, and what Baseball American noted as the loss of 50 of their 65 starts from 2023.
The Tigers will hope last year’s ACC freshman of the year Cam Cannarella can stay hot and get Clemson back into the position to host a regional. Last season’s postseason jaunt came to an end when it hosted one and disappointedly bowed out.
Behind Oregon State, the Pac 12’s top choices are UCLA (+3500) and Stanford (+4000). The Cardinal, winner of two straight Pac-12 titles and three trips in a row to Omaha, have a lot to replace from last year’s team.
For those who think either South Carolina (+3000), Alabama (+3500) or Auburn (+6000) can emerge from the SEC pack, betting a regular season conference title is another option. At BetRivers, those teams are priced +950, +1800 and +1500 respectively.
Longshots
The potential for a postseason run from teams in this group is why bettors should keep some units handy during the busy spring seasons to wager on college baseball.
Oral Roberts was 175-1 to open the 2023 campaign before winning the Summit League tournament then knocking off the power conference elites to get to Omaha.
While it is in the lower range of the longshot category, East Carolina (+5000) is my top preseason play because this team could host a Super Regional. Power right hander Trey Yesavage is not only the best starter outside of the power conferences, he is one of the best Friday night arms in the nation. It’s not just Yesavage the Pirates will rely on but Zach Root offers a nice lefty compliment the following day.
Jacob Jenkins-Cowart and ECU’s other top offensive weapons from last year’s team that made a fifth straight tournament appearance are also back. Bristol Carter could be this year’s AAC’s freshman of the year.
Over the last few years, those who handicap college baseball have predicted ECU would break through the mid-majors to finally make the CWS. Unfortunately, this popular longshot has yet to materialize as the Pirates lost last year in the stacked Charlottesville regional after making back-to-back super regional appearances.
This year with the returning bats and Yesavage able to neutralize any other team’s No. 1, those high aspirations are well within reach and worth a 50-1 play.
Look for the always solid Iowa (80-1) program to get more national attention than ever before because of what Brody Brecht can do on the mound. As in regularly pump in fastballs that exceed 100 MPH. Marcus Morgan is another righty that throws almost as hard.
The Hawkeyes had an NCAA tournament appearance last year and there is going to be plenty of talk of them going even further this season. They have not won a Big Ten title since 1990.
Brecht could be one of college baseball’s biggest storylines this year.
BetRivers places Iowa second on the conference regular season winner board at +300 just behind Indiana (+250). The Hoosiers (+15000), who had over 40 wins last season, are another longshot to keep in mind.
This year’s UC Irvine (+1000) squad might get a boost in generating an at-large bid if it fails to win the Big West tournament. Last year the Anteaters were notably left on the wrong side of the bubble. Irvine welcomes back every starter from a team that won 38 games in 2023.
UC Santa Barbara (+9000) with its stud Matt Ager will be joined by hyped freshman Jackson Flora in the rotation.
Big West teams are worth consideration since the conference produces multiple bids.
A case could easily be made that Northeastern (+20000) is the best team north of the Mid Atlantic states. Yet, its odds are more than double that of Louisville (+7000), Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech (+10000) teams predicted to finish in the middle of the ACC pack. Northeastern’s pricing is an off number and possibly representative of how sportsbook operators know less about college baseball compared to basketball and football.
That makes Northeastern, Oregon State and ECU as my top preseason plays. That is based on building a futures portfolio with teams that can both monetize tickets and have the potential of making it to Omaha.
The 200-1 Huskies could host their own regional and be this year’s Oral Roberts.
A season ago Northeastern won 44 games before bowing out of the Winston-Salem regional. The 2024 version returns four of its top hitters and most of the starting staff and bullpen.
Indiana State (+25000) and Texas State (+25000) is going deeper on the board for teams who could earn a tournament berth. The Sycamores are the top program of the Missouri Valley Conference. Missouri State (+50000) isn’t too far behind.
Even though the Sun Belt coaches picked the Bobcats to finish 5th in the league, the conference generated four tournament berths last year.
Experience is a key here as 18 seniors return along with Chase Mora who hit 17 homeruns in 2023.
Coastal Carolina (+9000) is picked to win the Sun Belt.
Keep this in mind when showing any interest in longshots, the books don’t get a lot of early season action on college baseball so even a couple small bets immediately create liability for them and the numbers will be lowered.
Also, don’t over leverage longshots with hopes of monetizing them. In order for that strategy to work, the longshots have to be competitively priced against the favorites (especially in an elimination game) they face in the tournament’s opening round. If the favorite is listed at -250 or above, it takes too much of a secondary bet with little ROI to go against the initial longshot.
This less than advantageous situation would be the case for teams like Army, Fairfield and Central Connecticut State who should all win their smaller conferences and make the tournament with nearly 1,000-1 odds.
Variable Pricing
Because of the comparative lack of interest/knowledge between college baseball and the other main sports, there tend to be major differences on various books’ futures boards.
For example, DK’s 250-1 for Texas State is only 100-1 on BetMGM. The 200-1 for Northeastern on DK is cut in half on BetMGM as well. If the goal is to monetize the ticket, bettors must get the most amount of cushion as possible for the initial investment.
CWS Odds
Here is the difference between how the eight teams who made it to Omaha in 2023 were priced in the preseason and prior to the start of the CWS.
- Wake Forest: +2500 to +250
- LSU: +500 to +375
- Florida: +1500 to +400
- Virginia:+3000 to +600
- Tennessee: +800 to +800
- TCU: +5000 to +800
- Stanford: +1200 to +1300
- Oral Roberts: +17500 to +2500
Don’t be that guy
One of my strongest predictions of this college baseball season will be at least one person somewhere in the country will walk into a sportsbook and ask the person behind the counter if he can get down $100,000 on an Alabama game because it can’t miss and only if you knew what I know…
