Sunday Night MLB: Astros vs. Padres
Most of the Sunday Night Baseball games on NBC and/or Peacock have featured the names you would expect – Yankees, Red Sox, and Dodgers – in some way, shape, or form. That is not the case on August 9, as some new blood takes the field in the primetime spotlight with the conclusion of the Astros vs. Padres series. Tonight’s game with Cristian Javier and Randy Vasquez has the potential for fireworks with a lot of balls in play and the possibility for walks, so a real nighttime thriller could be in the cards.
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See player prop projections for Astros vs. Padres from OptaAI.
How to Watch Astros vs. Padres
Where: NBC
When: Sunday August 9, 8:20 p.m. ET
Astros vs. Padres MLB Odds
San Diego Padres -116 // Houston Astros +108
Total: 9 (-110/-110)
Astros vs. Padres Prediction
Pick: Astros +108
Given how the postseason races look in both leagues, it seems stupid to discuss the “if the playoffs started today” hypothetical, but the Astros would be the AL West champs and the Padres would be on the outside looking in, at least with how the picture looked heading into the start of play. Houston entered the day with one more game played than the Rangers and it was a win, so that’s why they held a half-game lead, while the Padres were just a game out of the final Wild Card spot.
In other words, every game is going to carry importance from this point forward for the postseason hopefuls with how tight things are. Today’s game carries a little extra weight, as it will decide who wins the series. The Astros won 6-3 in the series lid-lifter to start their six-game California swing on the right foot, but the Padres evened up the weekend with a 3-2 win last night. San Diego will welcome the Brewers to town on Monday, while the Astros fire up a weekday set up the coast in San Francisco.
One of the more surprising developments at the Trade Deadline is that the Astros didn’t achieve more lineup balance. Yordan Alvarez is the MVP leader and really the only prominent left-handed batter in the lineup. The Astros did acquire lefty Daulton Varsho from the Blue Jays, but he’s in the midst of a terrible offensive season after having a career year in 2025, albeit in just 71 games. He has two hits in 22 trips to the plate with his new team.
Despite their right-handed-heavy nature, the Astros are seventh in wOBA against RHP at .326, slashing .250/.325/.423 on the season. They get a hittable right-hander here in Vasquez, who has a 4.19 ERA, but a 6.12 xERA and a 4.64 FIP. Vasquez has worked 101 innings over 18 starts and four relief outings and only has 65 strikeouts, leading to a 15% K%. He’s shaved 2% off of his BB% year over year, but his Hard Hit% is up more than 5% and his Barrel% sits at 11.1% after checking in at 10.9% last season. All of that hard contact paired with an extremely low K% is why his xERA is nearly two runs higher than his actual ERA.
Surprisingly, Vasquez has been worse at home, even though the pitcher-friendly confines of Petco Park usually produce different splits for Padres hurlers. He’s allowed a .299/.358/.536 slash at home with a .383 wOBA and 10 of the 14 homers he’s surrendered. But, it should be noted that lefties are collectively hitting .311/.364/.509 overall, while righties are hitting a much lower .248/.306/.412.
It has been a rough road Javier over the last few seasons. After a breakout campaign in 2022 with a 2.54 ERA, 2.48 xERA, and a 3.16 FIP, Javier regressed significantly in 2023 before missing most of 2024 and 2025. He’s just 27.1 innings into the 2026 season with a 6.59 ERA, 5.14 xERA, and a 5.17 FIP. The 29-year-old was locked into a five-year, $64 million deal in February 2023 and has not netted the type of return that the Astros were hoping for.
But, things have been a bit different for him this season since returning from the IL. Javier gave up 13 runs in just 9.1 innings to start the season and then missed nearly three months. Since coming back on July 4, he has a 3.50 ERA with a 4.01 xERA and a 3.42 FIP over 18 innings of work with 19 strikeouts against six walks. He’s made two starts and four relief appearances in that span, allowing three runs in each start. He’s a super-extreme fly ball pitcher, so maybe Petco will help him.
The Padres are slashing just .235/.315/.389 against righties for the season. In the second half, though, they’ve picked up the pace, posting a .287/.364/.478 slash against RHP over their last 574 plate appearances.
This pitching matchup really stands out, as this is just the third game at Petco Park this season with a total of 9+. Both previous games went Under, ending 3-1 and 4-1 with just 11 hits in each contest. Only one game last season had a total of 9+ and it went Under. Same with the one game in 2024.
Astros vs. Padres Prediction
That being said, you won’t see me running to the Under here with these two starters. A live Under bet might not be a bad idea if these two starters run into trouble because these are two excellent relief corps. With Vasquez’s high Barrel% and Hard Hit%, I give the Astros offense the upper hand here, even though the Padres have swung the bats well. Javier, who only has a 21% GB% since returning, has only allowed three Barrels in 52 batted ball events. He also has more swing-and-miss upside by a wide margin.
Astros vs. Padres Player Props
Xander Bogaerts (SD) Over 0.5 Walks (+138)
Bogaerts is running a career-best 11.9% BB%. He’s only batting .223 and is having a pretty poor offensive season overall, but at least he’s been patient and hasn’t been pressing. That’s especially true with a 12% BB% against RHP on the season. Javier has walked 15.3% of the righties he has faced this season in 72 plate appearances. Javier’s Over 1.5 Walks Allowed is juiced north of -200, so hopefully Bogaerts is one of the guys to draw one.
Taylor Trammell (HOU) Over 0.5 Hits (-112)
Trammell is batting .260/.345/.466 against right-handed pitching on the season, good for a .355 wOBA and a 129 wRC+. He’s been helped a ton by a .346 BABIP, as he’s struck out more than 31% of the time, but Vasquez is not a strikeout pitcher by any means. Trammell should get a couple of looks at him and, as mentioned above, lefties are batting .311 off Vasquez this season with 71 hits in 251 PA.
