Player props have become one of baseball’s most entertaining ways to bet, offering value well beyond the moneyline, run line, or game total. Each day, this column highlights the best opportunities on the board — from strikeouts and hits to total bases and pitcher outs recorded — using matchup data, recent form, and betting trends to identify edges. Keep reading for the top MLB player prop picks for August 13. Also, make sure you check out our live VSiN programming for more. Our hosts and analysts will be all over the MLB, which is why it pays to be a VSiN Pro subscriber.
MORE: Check out the VSiN Pro Picks page for more bets from our talented hosts and analysts!
Thursday Player Prop Best Bets
Below you’ll find my official plays on the player prop market for Thursday. These are the ones that make the VSiN Pro Picks page and count towards my season-long record. I’ll write three up per day, but I’ll add additional ones in an “Additional Best Bets” section. I go lighter on baseball than I do other sports. My MLB units are 50% of what my normal units are.
Max Scherzer Over 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-105) vs. Red Sox
Red Sox at Blue Jays – 3:07 pm ET
Over the last 20 games, the Red Sox have a wRC+ of 120 against right-handed pitching. With that in mind, this feels like a brutal matchup for Scherzer. The veteran has looked rock-solid in his last three outings, but facing this lineup at the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre presents some real challenges. There’s a good chance Boston pounces early.
Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 1.5 Total Bases (-103) vs. Nationals
Cubs at Nationals – 4:05 pm ET
Crow-Armstrong comes into this game having gone Over 1.5 total bases in three consecutive games, and he has also done so in six of his last eight. He’s also averaging 2.1 total bases per game against right-handed pitching this season, so he was the first player I thought of when I saw Cade Cavalli is pitching. Crow-Armstrong is 1 for 2 against Cavalli in his career, so we don’t have much to work off here. However, Cavalli is a pitcher that really likes his curveball, and PCA crushes that pitch. I like his chances of finishing with an extra-base hit, or just coming up with multiple hits.
Jacob deGrom Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-120 – 1.5 units) & Alt Strikeouts 8+ (+166 – 0.5 units) vs. Angels
Rangers at Angels – 10:07 pm ET
The Rangers are definitely being careful with deGrom, who threw only 88 pitches in his most recent start. That means he needs to rack up a ton of Ks in a short period of time in order to go Over his strikeout props, but there’s no reason he can’t do that tonight. DeGrom is coming off a nine-K outing against the Orioles, and he had seven strikeouts against this Angels team on July 7. It’s no secret I like targeting Los Angeles, and the team’s 25.1% strikeout rate, and I’m not going away from it here.
Additional Picks
Tyler Phillips Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-137) vs. Pirates
Steven Kwan Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-126) vs. Tigers
Max Fried Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-129 – 1.5 units) & Alt Strikeouts 7+ (+166 – 0.5 units) vs. Mariners
Andrew Abbott Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+105 – 1.5 units) & Alt Strikeouts 6+ (+217 – 0.5 units) vs. White Sox
Trevor Larnach Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (+115) vs. Phillies
Shane Drohan Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+105) vs. Dodgers
Noteworthy OptaAI Player Prop Edges
Check out the BRAND NEW OptaAI Player Props MLB pages for more of these! VSiN Pro subscribers can find 50+ player prop ideas on a daily basis! We’ll list the top edges in some of the biggest markets below, but there will always be a lot more to uncover on the pages themselves.
Ben Malgeri Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-118) vs. Guardians
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him going for 1.70 hits, runs, and RBIs, suggesting these odds should be -445 — a +27.5% edge to the Over.
Austin Wells Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-127) vs. Mariners
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him finishing with 1.66 hits, runs, and RBIs, suggesting these odds should be -423 — a +24.9% edge to the Over.
Josh Lowe Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-110) vs. Rangers
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him finishing with 1.46 hits, runs, and RBIs, suggesting these odds should be -331 — a +24.4% edge to the Over.
