Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Thursday, August 13, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Teams who lost their previous game to a divisional rival from blowing a save have gone 175-94 SU (+43.57 units, ROI: 16.2%) as a pick ’em or favorite in the same-series follow-up game since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): TEXAS (-148 at LAA)
Trend: Over the total is 28-13-3 (+14.30 units) when SEA is a road underdog with starter Logan Gilbert since the start of the 2021 season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): SEA-NYY (o/u at 7.5)
In MLB games occurring in August or later between two teams who have >= 0.580 win pct, smaller favorites in the -111 to -175 line range have gone 50-21 SU for +21.1 units (ROI: 29.7%) in the last five seasons.
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-140 vs MIL)
Trend: PHI is 16-32 (-13.93 units) as an underdog with Aaron Nola in the last 6+ seasons
Trend Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-103 vs MIN)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The two-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, these teams are back over the profitability line at 192-147 for +6.66 units and an ROI of +2% after a 38-25, +9.63 unit run out of the break.
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-104 vs PHI)
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game went 65-69 for -22.93 units when not matched up against similar teams in 2025. This represents an ROI of -17.1%, and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen HAS TO be accounted for in all games. This is a GO AGAINST angle, which can often prove as or more valuable than systems that suggest backing teams. For 2026, these teams are 50-46 for -11.12 units for an ROI of -11.6%.
System Matches (SLIGHT FADE ALL): CLEVELAND (-108 at DET), TEXAS (-148 at LAA)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings in the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season is off to a slower start, 256-299 for -9.15 units, but it has taken a huge step on the road to recovery since the ASB by going 65-53, +25.04 units.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): MIAMI (+111 vs PIT), MILWAUKEE (+131 at LAD), DETROIT (+100 vs CLE), LA ANGELS (+138 vs TEX)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last three regular seasons with a record of 293-318 for -26.2 units. ROI on that was -4.3%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, and the 2026 results so far show a record of 63-86 for -22.25 units and a solid ROI of -14.9%.
System Match (FADE ALL): TORONTO (+142 vs BOS), LA DODGERS (-140 vs MIL)
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, and it is now 125-146 for -6.26 units. However, it has lost -19.56 units over the last six-and-a-half weeks.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH (-119 at MIA), SEATTLE (+131 at NYY)
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #1: Teams starting a new series and riding at least a three-game winning streak are 517-412 for +45.28 units and an ROI of 4.9% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-140 vs MIL)
MLB Series Betting System #2: Teams wrapping up a series and riding at least a three-game losing streak are 467-494 but for +27.65 units and an ROI of 2.9% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH (-119 at MIA), SEATTLE (+131 at NYY), BOSTON (-153 at TOR)
MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 410-466 but for +86.15 units and an ROI of 9.8% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (+119 at CWS)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 2,192-2,069 (51.4%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -265.98 units. This represents an ROI of -6.2%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (-146 at WSH), NY YANKEES (-141 vs SEA)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2,248-2,825 (44.3%) for -262.68 units and an ROI of -5.2% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH (-119 at MIA), CINCINNATI (+119 at CWS), TEXAS (-148 at LAA)
Divisional blown saves lead to bounce-back
Teams who lost their previous game to a divisional rival from blowing a save have gone 175-94 SU (+43.57 units, ROI: 16.2%) as a pick ’em or favorite in the same-series follow-up game since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): TEXAS (-148 at LAA)
MLB Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios.
MLB Team Strength Betting System #5:
In MLB games occurring in August or later between two teams who have >= 0.580 win pct, smaller favorites in the -111 to -175 line range have gone 50-21 SU for +21.1 units (ROI: 29.7%) in the last five seasons.
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-140 vs MIL)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Road teams on 5+ game losing streaks who just lost as favorites but are favored again have gone 35-15 SU (+13.97 units, ROI: 27.9%) since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-153 at TOR)
Losing Streak Betting System #7:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 327-340 run (+9.50 units, ROI: 1.8%).
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): BOSTON (-153 at TOR), SEATTLE (+131 at NYY)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Theoretically, green star “edges” come up when a team has an odds edge of 15 cents over the actual price. That is a legacy thing. However, this year I have recorded that a 10-cent edge is actually better, as teams with an edge of 10 cents against the actual odds have gone 514-497 for +25.44 units, good for +2.5% ROI.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: LA ANGELS +138 (+31 diff), TORONTO +142 (+29), DETROIT +100 (+20), MIAMI +111 (+19)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Match: CHICAGO WHITE SOX -128 (+12 diff)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(901) PITTSBURGH (58-64) at (902) MIAMI (62-59)
Trend: Over the total is 18-5 (+12.50 units) with starter Braxton Ashcraft since the start of the 2026 season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): PIT-MIA (o/u at 8)
(903) CHICAGO-NL (71-50) at (904) WASHINGTON (59-63)
Trend: Over the total is 9-3-1 (+5.85 units) with starter Cade Cavalli at home since the start of the 2026 season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CHC-WSH (o/u at 8.5)
(905) MILWAUKEE (74-47) at (906) LOS ANGELES-NL (73-48)
Trend: LAD is 49-68 (-23.47 units) on the run line as a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-1.5 vs MIL)
(909) SEATTLE (56-65) at (910) NEW YORK-AL (68-52)
Trend: SEA is 32-25 (+12.10 units) as an underdog with Logan Gilbert in the last 4+ seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (+131 at NYY)
Trend: Over the total is 28-13-3 (+14.30 units) when SEA is a road underdog with starter Logan Gilbert since the start of the 2021 season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): SEA-NYY (o/u at 7.5)
(911) BOSTON (64-56) at (912) TORONTO (59-63)
Trend: Max Scherzer’s teams are 26-10 (+11.40 units) in his last 36 day game starts
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (+142 vs BOS)
(913) TEXAS (60-61) at (914) LOS ANGELES-AL (47-74)
Trend: TEX is 17-7 (+4.93 units) in the last 24 games as a -144 favorite or higher with starter Jacob deGrom in the last few
seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): TEXAS (-148 at LAA)
Trend: Under the total is 39-22 (+14.80 units) in LAA home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): TEX-LAA (o/u at 8)
(915) CINCINNATI (57-62) at (916) CHICAGO-AL (62-57)
Trend: CIN is 27-42 (-8.82 units) as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (FADE): CINCINNATI (+119 at CWS)
Trend: CIN is 19-10 (+10.92 units) vs AL teams with starter Andrew Abbott in his career
Trend Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (+119 at CWS)
(917) PHILADELPHIA (64-58) vs (918) MINNESOTA (60-62)
Trend: PHI is 16-32 (-13.93 units) as an underdog with Aaron Nola in the last 6+ seasons
Trend Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-103 vs MIN)
Trend: Over the total is 17-9-2 (+6.90 units) when starter Taj Bradley faces NL opponents since the start of the 2023 season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): PHI-MIN (o/u at 8.5)
Top Head-to-Head Series MLB Betting Trends
Series #30: Boston at Toronto, Mon 8/10-Thu 8/13
Trend: Underdogs are on a 33-19 (63.5%, +22.43 units) run in the Toronto-Boston AL East rivalry.
– The ROI on this trend is 43.1%
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (+142 vs BOS)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 9:45 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% three-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2, Majority handle groups have been steady when not too many of them hop on an underdog side since the beginning of the 2024 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 51-66%. These groups have gone 289-312 (48.1%) for a very minimal -1.8 units loss and an ROI of -0.3%. This represents an improvement of 8.2% on the overall numbers, and gives bettors a chance to stay afloat when they go against the grain.
System Matches (CONSIDER ALL): MIAMI (+111 vs PIT), CINCINNATI (+119 at CWS)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI (+119 at CWS), PHILADELPHIA (-103 at MIN)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 360-329 (52.2%) for -118.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -17.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since a lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-140 vs MIL)
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next couple tomorrow, August 14)
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