Player props have become one of baseball’s most entertaining ways to bet, offering value well beyond the moneyline, run line, or game total. Each day, this column highlights the best opportunities on the board — from strikeouts and hits to total bases and pitcher outs recorded — using matchup data, recent form, and betting trends to identify edges. Keep reading for the top MLB player prop picks for August 17. Also, make sure you check out our live VSiN programming for more. Our hosts and analysts will be all over the MLB, which is why it pays to be a VSiN Pro subscriber.
MORE: Check out the VSiN Pro Picks page for more bets from our talented hosts and analysts!
Monday Player Prop Best Bets
Below you’ll find my official plays on the player prop market for Monday. These are the ones that make the VSiN Pro Picks page and count towards my season-long record. I’ll write three up per day, but I’ll add additional ones in an “Additional Best Bets” section. I go lighter on baseball than I do other sports. My MLB units are 50% of what my normal units are.
Janson Junk Over 3.5 Strikeouts (+142) vs. Phillies
Marlins at Phillies – 6:40 pm ET
Junk has failed to reach the four-K mark in back-to-back outings, but the Phillies have a strikeout rate of 22.5% against righties. That’s not outrageously high, but it’s not low either. That said, this is a solid matchup for Junk, who actually had six Ks against Philadelphia on May 4. So, at the equivalent of odds in the +130 to +145 range at prediction markets, sign me up for Junk to have Over 3.5 strikeouts.
Walker Buehler Over 15.5 Outs Recorded (+134) vs. Mets
Padres at Mets – 7:10 pm ET
Buehler has recorded at least 16 outs in three of his last five starts. Also, when facing bottom-10 teams in batting average this season, Buehler is averaging 15.9 outs recorded per game. So, with Buehler facing a miserable Mets lineup, I like him as a plus-money play to work at least 5.1 innings in a pitcher-friendly park.
Shota Imanaga Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-126 – 1.5 units) & Alt Strikeouts 7+ (+157 – 0.5 units) vs. White Sox
Royals at Athletics – 8:05 pm ET
Imanaga has recorded at least six strikeouts in two of his last three starts. The lefty now faces a White Sox team that has a strikeout rate of 24.4% against southpaws, and he’ll be doing so inside pitcher-friendly Wrigley Field. This is a game in which Imanaga really should be able to miss some bats, so I’m taking him to finish with at least six Ks. I’m also playing an alternate for him to reach seven.
Additional Picks
Shane McClanahan Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-134) vs. Orioles
Kyle Tucker Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-161) vs. Rockies
Noteworthy OptaAI Player Prop Edges
Check out the BRAND NEW OptaAI Player Props MLB pages for more of these! VSiN Pro subscribers can find 50+ player prop ideas on a daily basis! We’ll list the top edges in some of the biggest markets below, but there will always be a lot more to uncover on the pages themselves.
Andres Chaparro Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-135) vs. Mets
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him going for 1.71 hits, runs, and RBIs, suggesting these odds should be -451 — a +24.4% edge to the Over.
Travis d’Arnaud Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-130) vs. Royals
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him finishing with 1.65 hits, runs, and RBIs, suggesting these odds should be -419 — a +24.2% edge to the Over.
Yohel Pozo Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-119) vs. Rays
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him finishing with 1.53 hits, runs, and RBIs, suggesting these odds should be -364 — a +24.1% edge to the Over.
