MLB Best Bets Today August 17
As far as Mondays go, this is a pretty busy one. We have 11 games on the docket featuring 20 teams, as the Cardinals and Reds will play a day-night doubleheader with a makeup game from late May to get today’s festivities started. That is the only day game, so if you have no interest or action, you’ll have to wait until at least 6:05 p.m. ET or later to lock in.
I’ll be posting my daily best bets Monday-Saturday with a Sunday Night Baseball preview on Sunday, as all the day games make it tough to get something out with lead time out here in Las Vegas. All lines are from DraftKings and are current at the time of publish. Please take the initiative to SHOP AROUND for the best odds. It matters. A lot.
One new offering this baseball season is our Opta AI Player Prop Projections. They are for VSiN Pro Subscribers only, so you can check out our current offers here. Zachary Cohen will be using those projections and his own handicapping to write up MLB player props.
Greg Peterson will have his best bets posted the night before and you can also check out his daily lines to see what looks to be off-market. Steve Makinen has also released his updated Bullpen Betting Systems and DraftKings Splits Systems, plus he’ll have a daily analytics report.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.
Here are the MLB best bets today for August 17:
Marlins vs. Phillies Prediction
Pick: Janson Junk (MIA) Over 1.5 Walks Allowed (+151)
A healthy plus-money price is on this prop, as Junk has gone Over 1.5 walks in just seven of his 17 starts. He didn’t walk any Phillies back on May 4 at home, but this is a road start and he’s actually had 2+ walks in three of his six starts since returning from the IL on July 9. For that reason and others, I’m looking to take a shot here with this big price.
Let’s start with this – Bryce Harper has a 16% BB% against RHP, Kyle Schwarber has a 15.9% BB% against RHP, and Bryson Stott has a 9.6% BB% against RHP. Junk’s BB% against LHB is a really solid 7.2%, but it is 2.1% higher than his mark against RHB. Junk’s road BB% is 8.1% compared to 5.4% at home, where he knows he has a greater margin for error given the pitching environment.
Left-handed batters have an 8.2% BB% against him in road efforts. It should also be noted that he has a 5.35 ERA with a .289/.345/.496 slash against over 33.2 innings of work. He’s walked 12 batters in those 33.2 innings on the road. He’s walked 12 batters in 54 innings at home. He’s definitely a guy who could start to nibble a little bit here.
Junk has a 55% Zone% at home and a 50.9% Zone% on the road per Statcast. It’s going to be pretty humid in Philly tonight as well, so maybe that will lead to some grip issues for Junk. At this price, I think the prop is worth a shot.
Cardinals vs. Reds Game 2 Prediction
Pick: Cardinals -119
Andre Pallante gets the start tonight for the Cardinals and he strikes me as the kind of guy you don’t really want to see in Game 2 of a double dip. Pallante is the definition of a pitch-to-contact guy with a 17.1% K% and a 7.4% BB%. But, he’s a serial worm-killer with a 55.6% GB%. He’s a really difficult at bat and a really difficult guy to score against because you have to string hits together and do so against a really good defensive ballclub.
Pallante has just a .276 BABIP against and has only allowed 10 homers, with just one homer over his last 10 starts. It’s rare to just get the big swing that teams are looking for in Game 2 of a very long day. For the Cardinals, they wouldn’t really be doing much of anything besides hanging out at the ballpark or in the hotel room, so I think it’s easier to be the road team in a doubleheader. It’s anecdotal, and I don’t have anything to quantify that, but just a take.
With that great defense, Pallante has a 3.46 ERA with a 3.83 xERA and a 3.73 FIP. He’s also, for whatever reason, been way better on the road with a .184/.266/.307 slash against and a .260 wOBA over 49.1 innings with a 2.55 ERA. He’s allowed a .272/.326/.377 slash with a .313 wOBA at home and a 4.02 ERA.
Game 2 starter Rhett Lowder has been good of late with eight runs allowed in his last four starts, but he has still allowed a double-digit Barrel% in that span. For the season, he has a 5.15 ERA with a 5.20 xERA and a 4.50 FIP. He’s actually been rather good for a while now outside of an eight-run blow-up in Coors Field on July 18. Still, Lowder’s underlying metrics are not nearly as strong as Pallante’s.
And, like I said, I would just expect the Cardinals to be more engaged. They’re in striking distance of the Wild Card. The Reds really aren’t and we saw a really lazy play from Elly De La Cruz yesterday that may have embodied the current state of the Reds. I’ll take this chance with a huge pitching advantage and the much better defensive team on a long day of baseball.
Diamondbacks vs. Red Sox Prediction
Pick: Red Sox -140
A little bit chalky here, but I’ll lay it with the host Red Sox against the Diamondbacks. The Snakes are sending out Mitch Bratt, while the Red Sox will roll with Alec Gamboa and then Brayan Bello. Gamboa isn’t purely a one-inning guy, so this may be a true piggyback situation, as he has worked 17 innings over nine appearances. He went three innings last time out, had a four-inning appearance on July 25, and also worked three innings on July 17.
The left-hander boasts a 1.59 ERA with a 2.66 xERA and a 3.32 FIP over those nine outings. He’s only allowed two Barrels and a 31.4% Hard Hit%, so he should be able to give Boston some effective work before Bello enters.
It has been an insane season for Bello. In 35.2 innings as a starter, he has a 10.35 ERA with a .365/.435/.623 slash against. In 48 innings as a reliever, he has a 0.75 ERA with a .203/.238/.256 slash against. He’s faced 181 batters in relief and 185 batters as a starter and the results could not be more disparate. Since the All-Star Break, Bello has made five relief appearances and allowed one earned run on 13 hits with a 15/3 K/BB ratio over 18.1 innings.
While I do have high hopes for the “Gambello” piggyback, I don’t have high hopes for lefty Mitch Bratt. He’s got a solid 3.74 ERA and a 3.78 xERA, but his 5.31 FIP and 5.59 xFIP are concerning numbers heading into Fenway Park. He has a 25/19 K/BB ratio, which is the main reason for his heightened FIP. Bratt’s contact management numbers are good, but walks can really hurt in this venue. The Red Sox have a .237/.315/.418 slash against LHP in the second half with a .321 wOBA, as a 26.5% K% has been an anchor dragging them down. Bratt only has a 17.5% K% with a 6.9% SwStr%. He’s not a big swing-and-miss guy and that should help Boston’s cause tonight.
All of Boston’s leverage guys are in good shape and that’s another checkmark for me.
