Player props have become one of baseball’s most entertaining ways to bet, offering value well beyond the moneyline, run line, or game total. Each day, this column highlights the best opportunities on the board — from strikeouts and hits to total bases and pitcher outs recorded — using matchup data, recent form, and betting trends to identify edges. Keep reading for the top MLB player prop picks for August 31. Also, make sure you check out our live VSiN programming for more. Our hosts and analysts will be all over the MLB, which is why it pays to be a VSiN Pro subscriber.
MORE: Check out the VSiN Pro Picks page for more bets from our talented hosts and analysts!
Monday Player Prop Best Bets
Below you’ll find my official plays on the player prop market for Monday. These are the ones that make the VSiN Pro Picks page and count towards my season-long record. I’ll write three up per day, but I’ll add additional ones in an “Additional Best Bets” section. I go lighter on baseball than I do other sports. My MLB units are 50% of what my normal units are.
Payton Tolle Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-104 – 1.5 units) & Alt Strikeouts 8+ (+187 – 0.5 units) & Alt Strikeouts 9+ (+363 – 0.25 units) vs. Mariners
Mariners at Red Sox – 6:45 pm ET
Tolle has racked up at least seven strikeouts in six of his last eight starts, and there’s a good chance he does some damage against the Mariners. Seattle has a strikeout rate of 24.5% and whiff percentage of 26.8% against lefties this year, and both of those numbers put the Mariners in the league’s 25th percentile. This is as good of a matchup as Tolle can possibly ask for, and he’s getting it at home. Tolle is averaging 7.5 strikeouts per game at Fenway Park this year.
Taj Bradley Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+104) vs. Tigers
Tigers at Twins – 7:40 pm ET
Bradley is averaging 6.5 strikeouts per game this season, and the number is up at 7.1 per game in his last 12 starts. Bradley has also had four games with at least 10 strikeouts in this recent stretch, so he has been pretty reliable — and borderline nasty — as a swing-and-miss guy. With that in mind, I’m taking the righty to get to six strikeouts tonight. The Tigers aren’t a wildly undisciplined team, but their strikeout rate is 22.4% against righties this season. It’s also 24.1% against righties over the last 10 games.
Jacob deGrom Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-102 – 1.5 units) & Alt Strikeouts 8+ (+198 – 0.5 units) vs. Athletics
Athletics at Rangers – 8:05 pm ET
DeGrom has been a tricky pitcher for me to figure out this year, as I feel like I back him when he’s at his absolute worst. However, I’m taking another shot with the ace tonight. While deGrom has had six or fewer strikeouts in five of his last seven starts, he’s averaging 7.3 strikeouts per game at home this year. Well, he now gets to face an Athletics team with the highest whiff percentage (29.5%) in baseball against righties over the last 10 games. Perhaps this is what he needs to bust out of his recent slump.
Additional Picks
Ian Seymour Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-138 – 1.5 units) & Alt Strikeouts 7+ (+145 – 0.5 units) vs. Mets
Jake Cronenworth Over 1.5 Total Bases (+150) vs. Reds
Jackson Holliday Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (+130) vs. Rockies
Noteworthy OptaAI Player Prop Edges
Check out the BRAND NEW OptaAI Player Props MLB pages for more of these! VSiN Pro subscribers can find 50+ player prop ideas on a daily basis! We’ll list the top edges in some of the biggest markets below, but there will always be a lot more to uncover on the pages themselves.
Carlos Cortes Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-127) vs. Rangers
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him finishing with 1.67 hits, runs, and RBIs, suggesting these odds should be -430 — a +25.2% edge to the Over.
Drew Romo Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-123) vs. Astros
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him finishing with 1.45 hits, runs, and RBIs, suggesting these odds should be -326 — a +21.4% edge to the Over.
Esteury Ruiz Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (+139) vs. Nationals
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him finishing with 2.10 hits, runs, and RBIs, suggesting these odds should be -163 — a +20.2% edge to the Over.
