MLB Best Bets Today August 31
It is a very busy Monday with 24 of the league’s 30 teams on the field. That means 12 games out of a possible 15 to get the work week started and, much to the chagrin of most, there are zero day games, as our first action gets underway at 6:05 p.m. ET. The Reds and Cubs both play tonight after Sunday Night Baseball, but they’re both at home, so it doesn’t seem like we have any noteworthy situational edges there. There are some edges today, though, and we’ll look to find them.
I’ll be posting my daily best bets Monday-Saturday with a Sunday Night Baseball preview on Sunday, as all the day games make it tough to get something out with lead time out here in Las Vegas. All lines are from DraftKings and are current at the time of publish. Please take the initiative to SHOP AROUND for the best odds. It matters. A lot.
One new offering this baseball season is our Opta AI Player Prop Projections. They are for VSiN Pro Subscribers only, so you can check out our current offers here. Zachary Cohen will be using those projections and his own handicapping to write up MLB player props.
Greg Peterson will have his best bets posted the night before and you can also check out his daily lines to see what looks to be off-market.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.
Here are the MLB best bets today for August 31:
Giants vs. Braves Prediction
Pick: Giants +179
Going to take a stab on a big underdog here today, as Anthony Molina gets the start for the Giants and Bryce Elder goes for the Braves. This is a super weird spot for both teams, as this is a make-up game from a postponement earlier in the season. San Francisco played a doubleheader on Saturday at home against Arizona to have yesterday off as a travel day in order to get to Atlanta and kick off a three-city, seven-game road trip.
The Braves simply lose out on an off day, as they’ll play a two-game set in Washington beginning tomorrow and then go to Philly for a wraparound four-gamer this weekend. So, it really is a super weird spot. The Braves have ripped off seven wins in a row with a sweep of the Dodgers and then a sweep of the Rockies after beating the Brewers in the Little League Classic in Williamsport.
Molina gets a crack at his former team in this one, as he was recently picked up by the Giants in the Tyler Mahle trade. He made three appearances for the Braves earlier this season and allowed four runs on six hits over five innings. In his Giants debut, he went 4.1 one-hit innings against the Reds with one strikeout and one walk. After being added to the Triple-A roster, he allowed four runs on eight hits in nine innings in the hitter-happy PCL.
I’m looking to fade Elder here, as he enters with a 3.95 ERA, 4.01 xERA, and a 4.45 FIP over his 143.2 innings of work. It’s more about the 4.84 FIP that he has here in the second half, as his K% is down, his BB% is up, and his HR/9 is also on the rise. His 82.5% LOB% has been carrying a good amount of water for him over those 41 innings.
Atlanta used four relievers yesterday, including top leverage arms Raisel Iglesias and Dylan Lee. Their workloads haven’t been that heavy, but still. After sweeping the Dodgers, the Braves swept the Rockies by a combined score of 11-7, including two one-run games and a walk-off, so they played some tight baseball against a lesser team. Losing an off day this late in the season is an annoyance for a contender, especially with one off day since August 13, and that was traveling back to face the Dodgers after the game in Williamsport.
So, I’ll give the Giants a shot here at a big price while fading what I think is a mediocre pitcher.
Tigers vs. Twins Prediction
Pick: Tigers +108
A price play here, as this game feels very coin-flippy to me, but the Tigers are in an underdog role at a plus-money price heading up to Target Field. Jackson Jobe has made three really solid starts since returning to the Detroit rotation, but there are some worrisome signs in his peripherals with a 3.93 ERA, 5.68 xERA, and a 4.67 FIP over 18.1 innings of work. He gave up six runs in 3.2 innings against the White Sox in his second start, which includes the only two homers he has allowed thus far. But, outside of that, he’s induced a ton of weak contact and Stuff+ continues to like his arsenal.
Taj Bradley has had a very good season with a 3.97 ERA, 3.88 xERA, and a 3.90 FIP over 147.1 innings of work. He has more strikeout upside than Jobe, but also sports a 4.84 ERA in the second half over 44.2 innings of work. Like Jobe, he’s had some walk rate issues. Unlike Jobe, he’s allowed a lot more hard contact.
The Twins have been modestly better against RHP in August, slashing .236/.305/.393, while the Tigers have slashed .233/.312/.362. Detroit has the lower bullpen ERA and xERA in August. Both bullpens have pretty much everybody available. I just feel like the price is worth taking a shot on the Tigers and this price was even slightly better earlier this morning, so somebody else out there agrees.
White Sox vs. Astros Prediction
Pick: Astros -127
Anthony Kay and Peter Lambert are the listed hurlers here, as the White Sox and Astros meet in a battle of AL division leaders. The handicap is pretty simple here. Right-handed batters are slashing .283/.374/.478 against Kay with a .373 wOBA and they’ve hit 16 of the 18 homers that he has allowed. He also has a 4.89 ERA on the road in 57 innings and has allowed a .473 SLG, much higher than what he’s done at home.
Kay only has a 14.7% K% against RHB with a 9.1% BB%. His 5.78 FIP in that split is definitely indicative of how the three true outcomes have worked out for him. As we know, Houston is a very right-handed-heavy lineup and that should work to their advantage in this one.
Lambert has been quite the find for the Astros, as he has a 3.66 ERA with a 3.54 xERA and a 3.86 FIP over 128 innings of work. What matters the most to me here is that he’s a guy with some pretty noticeable reverse platoon splits. Righties have batted .270/.318/.425 against him with a .327 wOBA, whereas lefties have hit just .179/.299/.262. He has issued a lot of walks to left-handed batters, but has really limited their hard contact. In fact, lefties in Houston have only batted .167/.295/.241 off of him.
The Astros pen had a pretty big lift yesterday in terms of their leverage guys and it is entirely possible that Josh Hader is unavailable having worked four of the last six days, but the bullpen ranks sixth in FIP for the month of August, while the White Sox pen ranks 13th. This seems like a worthwhile bet given the pitching matchup and the fairly short number.
