Player props have become one of baseball’s most entertaining ways to bet, offering value well beyond the moneyline, run line, or game total. Each day, this column highlights the best opportunities on the board — from strikeouts and hits to total bases and pitcher outs recorded — using matchup data, recent form, and betting trends to identify edges. Keep reading for the top MLB player prop picks for July 11. Also, make sure you check out our live VSiN programming for more. Our hosts and analysts will be all over the MLB, which is why it pays to be a VSiN Pro subscriber.
MORE: Check out the VSiN Pro Picks page for more bets from our talented hosts and analysts!
Saturday Player Prop Best Bets
Below you’ll find my official plays on the player prop market for Saturday. These are the ones that make the VSiN Pro Picks page and count towards my season-long record. I’ll write three up per day, but I’ll add additional ones in an “Additional Best Bets” section. I go lighter on baseball than I do other sports. My MLB units are 50% of what my normal units are.
Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 Total Bases (+100) vs. Rangers
Astros at Rangers – 7:05 pm ET
Alvarez has really struggled recently. He has actually gone Under 1.5 total bases in nine of his last 14 matches, and he had gone Under in four straight before going for five total bases on Friday. But what if he busted out of the slump there? It’s entirely possible with a player this good, plus his matchup tonight is excellent. He only has two at-bats against Kumar Rocker, but he homered in one of those two. And Rocker has had some brutal outings this year.
Javier Assad Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-123) vs. Reds
Cubs at Reds – 7:10 pm ET
Assad really isn’t much of a swing-and-miss pitcher, but I’m not sure that matters against the Reds. This Cincinnati team has the highest strikeout rate (25.2%) in baseball against righties this year, and the 27.1% whiff percentage also happens to be outrageous. I can see Assad pushing four or five strikeouts simply because the Reds lack discipline.
Walker Buehler Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-130) vs. Blue Jays
Blue Jays at Padres – 8:40 pm ET
Even in a bad matchup against an Arizona team that doesn’t strike out much, Buehler hit the four-strikeout mark in his last outing. That gives him at least four strikeouts in seven consecutive starts, plus he has gone Over in 14 of his 18 outings this season. I have been going to this a bunch lately, so I’m not going to back away now.
Additional Picks
Gage Jump Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+105) vs. White Sox
Joe Ryan Over 7.5 Strikeouts (-113 – 1.5 units) & Alt Strikeouts 9+ (+170 – 0.5 units) & Alt Strikeouts 10+ (+320 – 0.25 units) vs. Angels
Cam Schlittler Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+140) vs. Nationals
Kyle Tucker Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-110) vs. Diamondbacks
Noteworthy OptaAI Player Prop Edges
Check out the BRAND NEW OptaAI Player Props MLB pages for more of these! VSiN Pro subscribers can find 50+ player prop ideas on a daily basis! We’ll list the top edges in some of the biggest markets below, but there will always be a lot more to uncover on the pages themselves.
Jonatan Clase Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-135) vs. Padres
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him going for 1.59 hits, runs, and RBIs, suggesting these odds should be -391 — a +22.2% edge to the Over.
Richie Palacios Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-118) vs. Mariners
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him finishing with 1.43 hits, runs, and RBIs, suggesting these odds should be -317 — a +21.9% edge to the Over.
Hunter Feduccia Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-103) vs. Mariners
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him finishing with 1.25 hits, runs, and RBIs, suggesting these odds should be -249 — a +20.6% edge to the Over.
