Daily Racing Form expert handicapper and analyst Mike Beer handicaps the Saturday, July 11 racing card at Saratoga, including his projected 1-2-3 finishers. His best bet of the day comes from Race 5.
Also, view FREE DRF Past Performances for today’s Race of the Day.
BEST BET: Sunna (5th race)
Fifth Race
1. Sunna
2. Italian Soiree
3. In Our Time
SUNNA enters her first graded stakes try undefeated on turf with a progressive series of figures showing; speedy filly has managed to sit comfortably off another horse when required, but she looks like the fastest horse early in this field. ITALIAN SOIREE upset the Coronation Cup when turned back to sprint on turf last summer; she improved to a new Beyer top winning off the layoff as a 4yo, then jumped up to a 97 when turned back again last month; in good form and tactical enough to stay close to the pace if necessary. IN OUR TIME parlayed a perfect trip into a Grade 2 win two back at Keeneland; sat another good one on this track last time, but she was no match for those horses and weakened to finish behind ITALIAN SOIREE; can get a more aggressive ride from Prat in this spot; threat if she can bounce back.
Here are Mike’s thoughts on the other ten races on Saturday’s Saratoga card.
First Race
1. Magic Chuck
2. Midnight Still
3. Harbaugh
MAGIC CHUCK is by 14% juvenile debut sire Good Magic, from the female family of Grade 1 Test winner American Gal; breezing up steadily for Beckman – 2yo, first-time starter, dirt, sprint: 6 for his last 31, 19%, $4.32 ROI. MIDNIGHT STILL owns the valuable experience edge on his rivals by virtue of a promising debut effort a month ago in Kentucky; he was outpaced a bit in the early stages of that race, before finishing up gamely to just miss second with a 79 Beyer that puts him just about at par for this kind of race; the one to beat with Prat taking over. HARBAUGH sold for $450k after breezing 9.4 in April; sire wins with 18% of his 2yo first-time starters; shows up with a limited work tab for the debut.
Second Race
1. Angel of Kirk
2. Hot Fries
3. Aerial Affair
ANGEL OF KIRK is a $500k daughter of the speedy Yaupon (19% with juvenile first-time starters); the dam raced on synthetic throughout her career while winning eight times (including the debut), and placing in a Grade 2; this is the female family of Grade 1-winning dirt sprinter The Lumber Guy; Cox excels with 2yo first-time starters, especially at Saratoga. HOT FRIES is from the first crop of Saratoga-loving Jackie’s Warrior; this dam went 8 for 12, and won the first six starts of her career sprinting on dirt; Asmussen always dangerous with horses like this. AERIAL AFFAIR is from the highly-regarded first crop of Flightline (1 for 4 so far with first-time starters in North America); the dam is a half-sister to Grade 1 Test winner Bella Sofia; has some fast works showing.
Third Race
1. Mischief Lady
2. Speightful Lily
3. Army Gal
MISCHIEF LADY won three of four early on when able to make the early lead, including a stakes race off the layoff last summer when rained off the grass; she hasn’t run close to her best in two starts so far this year, though she lost all chance at the start when returned from the layoff, then tried turf last time; back to dirt with dangerous speed at a price. SPEIGHTFUL LILY missed the break in an off-turf race here two summers ago, but has otherwise been competitive right along since winning first-out with a big figure; was first back from a long layoff when trying hard before settling for second-best last time; figures tough right back. ARMY GAL earned a 91 Beyer en route to clearing her final state-bred allowance condition late last year; finished a good third behind Senza Parole and Grammy Girl in her next start, then got wired in her final start before the layoff; makes her second start as a 4yo after catching a wet track in her return.
Fourth Race
1. Burhan
2. Intellect
3. Sounds Like a Plan
BURHAN didn’t appear to be well-suited by the shorter sprints he tried in his final two starts in France; was sent to the lead in his stateside debut around two turns, and he stayed gamely into deep stretch of that race before finally getting caught; was handier when turned back again in April, but he was bothered by a rival bolting in front of him at the top of the stretch, and only finished evenly in the late stages behind that wire-to-wire winner in a race that came back fast; interesting stretching back out. INTELLECT acquitted himself well in some much tougher spots here last summer before the layoff; he has so far disappointed in two starts as a 5yo, though he was always on the outside in that last one, while each of the top three finishers spent most of the race on the rail; tries again. SOUNDS LIKE A PLAN has used his ample early speed to win four of his last five, including a top figure win over this course and distance last month when able to take over early after breaking from an outside post; moves to the rail this time.
Sixth Race
1. Secret Connection
2. D’muehl
3. Uptown Rosie
SECRET CONNECTION sold for $90k following a solid 10.2 breeze in March; daughter of 10% juvenile debut sire Connect has continued to train forwardly up to her debut for one of the best first-out trainers on the circuit. D’MUEHL is by 18% debut sire Army Mule; has been training right along at Belmont for Cox – 2yo, first-time starter, dirt, sprint, Saratoga: 7 for his last 32, 22%, $2.87 ROI. UPTOWN ROSIE looked quick in an untimed breeze before these connections went to $300k for her in May; by new sire Epicenter (two debut winners so far), she is a half-sister to the versatile 2yo of 2025 Believe in Magic, who broke her maiden on the main track here, before placing in two stakes sprinting on turf, and then winning an allowance race on synthetic at Turfway.
Seventh Race
1. Candytown
2. Unit Economics
3. Plensa
CANDYTOWN ran well winning an allowance race here last summer with an 88 Beyer, then tried a pair of stakes races at the end of the year to no avail – though he did have a difficult trip at Gulfstream in November; got stuck wide around the track in his return from the layoff last month; can do better. UNIT ECONOMICS was last seen trying to close into a moderate pace in a Grade 3 last February; was in good form leading up to that first stakes try; his good race makes him tough, but he will have to be ready to run it in his first start back from a long layoff. PLENSA rated as the winner backed the pace down early, then finished well through traffic before coming up just short in his 4yo debut; picked up his big win last year rallying into a fast pace at Kentucky Downs, then was no real factor in some tougher stakes races; still has forward to go.
Eighth Race
1. Gypsy Art
2. Bosun
3. Cyclonite
GYPSY ART has been more patiently ridden with blinkers off as a 3yo, and he has jumped up with the best efforts of his career in his last two starts while finishing strongly from off the pace both times; should have some pace in front of him in this spot. BOSUN ran the two best races of his career over this course and distance last summer; tried stretching out to no avail at the end of last year, and he endured a troubled trip when turned back to sprint before the layoff; starts back fresh with tactical speed. CYCLONITE just missed pulling off the upset when turned back to sprint in stakes company last October; settled for either second or third in each of his next five starts while sent off at much shorter prices; had an excuse last time when eliminated by a fallen rider just as he was gearing up to make his run; tries again.
Ninth Race
1. Tricky Business
2. Sunday Boy
3. Toscano
TRICKY BUSINESS downed a couple of these same rivals to break his maiden going this distance back in early May; he had the speed to attend the pace in that spot, before putting both Judge Boushay and King Farro away late with an 87 Beyer; got in too tough in his next start; back to his available condition with forward to go. SUNDAY BOY timed things right to get his maiden win in a $500k race last December; he faced Withers winner Talk to Me Jimmy prior to that, then was no match for the streaking Sculcos Folly (three stakes wins in a row) when returned from the layoff in a stakes race sprinting; back to dirt with a positive rider change. TOSCANO’s win off the claim for Maker last April came in a race rained off the grass, though he finished that race off nicely while showing improved form; only managed one more dirt start as a 4yo before being sidelined for almost a full year; second off the long layoff for this.
Tenth Race
1. Ole Crazy Bone
2. Fort George
3. Desvio
OLE CRAZY BONE nearly overcame a tough trip to win a stakes race when stretched out in his first start for Maker last summer; had a much better trip in his next start and dominated a $2.5 million race at Kentucky Downs with a triple-digit Beyer; stretching back out for his second start back from a layoff after keeping close to a strong pace and fighting bravely to the wire going shorter in his return. FORT GEORGE arrives in excellent form from Dubai, where he held his own with the world-class turf horse Rebel’s Romance earlier this year; was no match for Ombudsman before the layoff, though he pulled a pretty tough trip in that spot while wide and uncovered all the way; has never run a bad race, and he stays. DESVIO is at his best going long on turf, and he has outrun his odds more than once while keeping good company for an underrated trainer; needs some pace.
Eleventh Race
1. Runcot
2. Coach Ryan
3. Karsten
RUNCOT debuted in a dirt sprint, where he tried to show speed from a very difficult post and got stuck on a wide chase before getting very tired in the stretch; son of the excellent turf sire Mendelssohn has distance on the bottom of his pedigree; switches right over to grass while stretching out, and he has more speed than it might appear. COACH RYAN was conservatively ridden before finishing in midpack on debut here as a 2yo; he improved in his next start, but was unfortunate to bump into next-out stakes winner Jaxer and had to settle for second; returns as a new gelding with Lasix on. KARSTEN still looked a little green as the lone first-time starter in that field when finishing just behind today’s rival CLASSIC COMMANDER last month; can easily improve with Prat taking over.
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