Player props have become one of baseball’s most entertaining ways to bet, offering value well beyond the moneyline, run line, or game total. Each day, this column highlights the best opportunities on the board — from strikeouts and hits to total bases and pitcher outs recorded — using matchup data, recent form, and betting trends to identify edges. Keep reading for the top MLB player prop picks for July 28. Also, make sure you check out our live VSiN programming for more. Our hosts and analysts will be all over the MLB, which is why it pays to be a VSiN Pro subscriber.
MORE: Check out the VSiN Pro Picks page for more bets from our talented hosts and analysts!
Tuesday Player Prop Best Bets
Below you’ll find my official plays on the player prop market for Tuesday. These are the ones that make the VSiN Pro Picks page and count towards my season-long record. I’ll write three up per day, but I’ll add additional ones in an “Additional Best Bets” section. I go lighter on baseball than I do other sports. My MLB units are 50% of what my normal units are.
Sandy Alcantara Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+118) vs. Phillies
Phillies at Marlins – 6:40 pm ET
Alcantara is coming off a three-K performance against the Astros, but he had at least seven strikeouts in three consecutive outings before that. He has also had at least six strikeouts in six of his last nine starts. One of those starts happened to be against this same Phillies lineup, as he had six strikeouts against them on June 17. This is just a matchup that Alcantara should continue to take advantage of. Philadelphia has a strikeout rate of 23.8% against righties since the start of the season, and that number is up at 25.2% over the last 20 games. Alcantara’s changeup should be a game-changing pitch in this outing.
James Wood Over 1.5 Total Bases (+114) vs. Blue Jays
Blue Jays at Nationals – 6:45 pm ET
Wood is averaging 2.2 total bases per game when facing right-handed starters this season, and he has been an absolute terror for opposing pitchers all year. Well, in tonight’s meeting with the Blue Jays, he’ll be hitting atop the lineup against a struggling Shane Bieber. Since returning from injury, Bieber has a 4.85 ERA through five starts. He hasn’t yet looked like himself, meaning we should be able to attack him on the prop market. That said, let’s go with Wood at home, where he has crushed all season.
Gerrit Cole Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+118 – 1.5 units) & Alt Strikeouts 8+ (+228 – 0.5 units) & Alt Strikeouts 9+ (+437 – 0.25 units) vs. White Sox
Yankees at White Sox – 7:40 pm ET
Cole is really starting to fool hitters again. The righty is averaging 8.7 strikeouts per game in his last three starts, and one of those was an impressive eight-K performance against the Dodgers. Well, in tonight’s meeting with the White Sox, Cole gets to go to work against a lineup that has a 23.2% strikeout rate against righties this season. Of course, it should be noted that Chicago has been much better at avoiding Ks recently. However, as long as Cole isn’t completely off his game, he should be able to do some serious damage this evening. I’m going to play some alternates at 8+ and 9+.
Additional Picks
Troy Melton Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-113) vs. Orioles
Seth Lugo Over 17.5 Outs (+100) vs. Twins
Peter Lambert Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+109) vs. Angels
Michael Lorenzen Over 3.5 Strikeouts (+100) vs. Padres
Willson Contreras Over 1.5 Total Bases (-115) vs. Athletics
Rafael Devers Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (+120) vs. Brewers
Noteworthy OptaAI Player Prop Edges
Check out the BRAND NEW OptaAI Player Props MLB pages for more of these! VSiN Pro subscribers can find 50+ player prop ideas on a daily basis! We’ll list the top edges in some of the biggest markets below, but there will always be a lot more to uncover on the pages themselves.
Brandon Pfaadt Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+145) vs. Pirates
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him going for 5.90 strikeouts, suggesting these odds should be -235 — a +29.3% edge to the Over.
James Outman Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-138) vs. Orioles
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him finishing with 1.84 hits, runs, and RBIs, suggesting these odds should be -530 — a +26.2% edge to the Over.
Drew Romo Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-108) vs. Yankees
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him finishing with 1.36 hits, runs, and RBIs, suggesting these odds should be -290 — a +22.4% edge to the Over.
