MLB Best Bets Today July 28
Back to our regularly-scheduled programming in MLB, as all 30 teams are set to take the field on Tuesday, including a 16th game thanks to a doubleheader for the Ohio Cup between the Guardians and Reds. Rain threatens the divisional matchup between the Braves and Mets, as those games have a higher likelihood of getting banged since they are typically easier to reschedule. Otherwise, we should be in pretty good shape for Tuesday.
I’ll be posting my daily best bets Monday-Saturday with a Sunday Night Baseball preview on Sunday, as all the day games make it tough to get something out with lead time out here in Las Vegas. All lines are from DraftKings and are current at the time of publish. Please take the initiative to SHOP AROUND for the best odds. It matters. A lot.
One new offering this baseball season is our Opta AI Player Prop Projections. They are for VSiN Pro Subscribers only, so you can check out our current offers here. Zachary Cohen will be using those projections and his own handicapping to write up MLB player props.
Greg Peterson will have his best bets posted the night before and you can also check out his daily lines to see what looks to be off-market. Steve Makinen has also released his updated Bullpen Betting Systems and DraftKings Splits Systems, plus he’ll have a daily analytics report.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.
Here are the MLB best bets today for July 28:
Diamondbacks vs. Pirates Prediction
Pick: Pirates -117
Brandon Pfaadt’s mechanical adjustments have worked out really well for him, but it’s fair to wonder if he can keep outpitching some concerning signs in the profile. I bet on Pfaadt and the Snakes last time out, as he’s been much more effective since moving to the first base side of the pitching rubber, but his lack of bat-missing skills has me concerned in this start against a left-handed-heavy Pirates lineup that has bashed righties in July.
Pfaadt has made five starts since coming back to the bigs on June 30 and has a 2.33 ERA with a 2.73 xERA and a 3.00 FIP, but his 4.34 xFIP is of interest to me. Pfaadt only has 14 strikeouts out of 109 batters faced. Even with a 26.7% K%, the Pirates are slashing .259/.340/.417 against righties in July with a .335 wOBA. Lefties are slashing .304/.349/.507 against Pfaadt on the season and have 17 hits in 60 PA in this span where he’s been more effective on the whole.
I can’t see an 80.4% LOB% continuing with a paltry 12.8% K%. His low BB% has been a nice improvement, but he’s pitching to a ton of contact and I’m not sure how long he’s going to be able to dodge, duck, dip, dive, and dodge a higher rate of those runners scoring. Last time out, he only had one strikeout against the Cardinals in 26 batters faced.
Bubba Chandler gets the nod for the Pirates and he came back from a nice All-Star Break respite with 6.1 shutout innings against the Yankees at Yankee Stadium with five punchouts and one walk. Chandler had a couple of rocky outings as June ended and the calendar flipped to July, but he’s thrown the ball well on the whole with a 4.47 ERA, 3.99 xERA, and a 4.43 FIP.
Chandler’s high BB% is the worry with him, but Arizona is more of a contact-oriented lineup that doesn’t really work a ton of counts. The Pirates have pretty much everybody but Mason Montgomery available in the bullpen tonight, so they should be able to cobble together what they need, as I can see Pfaadt’s regression showing up.
Brewers vs. Giants Prediction
Pick: Under 7.5 (-115)
The Brewers struggled in their first road game of the second half, falling 3-0 to the Giants at Oracle Park last night. That was a good underdog cash for the article and we’re going to look for another play in this series, but hone in on the total.
Logan Henderson goes for the Brew Crew here, as he enters with a 3.05 ERA, 2.88 xERA, and a 2.98 FIP over his 38.1 innings of work. He’s pretty much a five-and-fly guy, but he has only allowed more than two runs once in his eight starts with a 47/7 K/BB ratio, another huge developmental win for the Milwaukee player dev staff. The fourth-rounder out of McLennan Community College has had some issues staying healthy, but the stuff is undeniable.
Since returning to the bigs on July 9, Henderson has allowed six runs on 11 hits in 15.1 innings of work with a 17/1 K/BB ratio. He has given up some hard contact in that span, but does have a high Chase Rate in each of his last two starts and gets a solid matchup here against a Giants lineup slashing .230/.281/.429 over the month of July with just a 5.9% BB%. The pitcher-friendly conditions by the Bay should really help Henderson, whose 27.2% GB% is one of the lowest in baseball.
It has been an interesting season for Landen Roupp, who has his ERA under 4.00 now. He’s had strong ratios and peripherals most of the season, but a 68.1% LOB% has been his undoing. It’s actually under 60% at home, but the right-hander with a 3.36 xERA and 3.31 FIP has allowed just three runs on nine hits in his last 21 innings, completing six innings in each outing. The biggest thing for the ground ball merchant has been limiting free passes, which he’s done a good job of lately.
Roupp has allowed just a .198/.274/.299 slash at home with a .260 wOBA, but has a 3.80 ERA because of that low LOB%. He’s worked 20 more innings on the road, so more home starts should help his numbers, especially since he’s allowed just 11 extra-base hits in 186 batters faced at Oracle Park and his BB% is 9.1% with a 27.4% K%, good improvements from his 10.3% and 22.9% numbers on the road.
Both bullpens are in good shape tonight and I think we could see the Brewers a bit sluggish again with the late game and their first road series since the first half of the season.
