Player props have become one of baseball’s most entertaining ways to bet, offering value well beyond the moneyline, run line, or game total. Each day, this column highlights the best opportunities on the board — from strikeouts and hits to total bases and pitcher outs recorded — using matchup data, recent form, and betting trends to identify edges. Keep reading for the top MLB player prop picks for July 31. Also, make sure you check out our live VSiN programming for more. Our hosts and analysts will be all over the MLB, which is why it pays to be a VSiN Pro subscriber.
MORE: Check out the VSiN Pro Picks page for more bets from our talented hosts and analysts!
Friday Player Prop Best Bets
Below you’ll find my official plays on the player prop market for Friday. These are the ones that make the VSiN Pro Picks page and count towards my season-long record. I’ll write three up per day, but I’ll add additional ones in an “Additional Best Bets” section. I go lighter on baseball than I do other sports. My MLB units are 50% of what my normal units are.
Amed Rosario Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (+120) vs. Cubs
Yankees at Cubs – 2:20 pm ET
Rosario comes into this game having gone Over 1.5 HRR in two of his last three meetings with left-handed pitchers, and his ability to hit southpaws is really the reason he’s on this Yankees team. That said, he should be in the lineup in Friday’s meeting with Shota Imanaga and the Cubs. This isn’t an easy matchup for Rosario, but I’m not sure he should be +120 to finish with two HRR. Imanaga hasn’t exactly been unhittable when pitching at Wrigley this year.
Paul Skenes Over 7.5 Strikeouts (-124) vs. Reds
Pirates at Reds – 6:10 pm ET
I strongly prefer to take Skenes when he’s pitching at home. He’s averaging 7.6 strikeouts per game at PNC Park this season, but he’s averaging only 5.6 strikeouts per game on the road. Still, the Reds have the league’s highest strikeout rate (25.3%) when going up against righties this year. So, even with Skenes pitching in a hitter-friendly park, he should be able to get himself going with his swing-and-miss stuff.
Mickey Moniak Over 1.5 Total Bases (-119) vs. Royals
Royals at Rockies – 8:40 pm ET
Michael Wacha is having a strong season for Kansas City, but pitching at Coors Field is tough on everyone. That said, I like the idea of playing someone on the Rockies to come through at the plate, and Moniak is the player I’m drawn to. This season, Moniak is averaging 2.4 total bases per game when going up against righties. That number also happens to go up to 2.9 per game when playing at Coors. He has a real shot at making something happen here.
Additional Picks
Shane Drohan Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-116) vs. Angels
Noteworthy OptaAI Player Prop Edges
Check out the BRAND NEW OptaAI Player Props MLB pages for more of these! VSiN Pro subscribers can find 50+ player prop ideas on a daily basis! We’ll list the top edges in some of the biggest markets below, but there will always be a lot more to uncover on the pages themselves.
Jose Siri Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-128) vs. Brewers
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him going for 1.65 hits, runs, and RBIs, suggesting these odds should be -421 — a +24.7% edge to the Over.
Esmerlyn Valdez Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (+141) vs. Reds
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him finishing with 2.19 hits, runs, and RBIs, suggesting these odds should be -180 — a +22.8% edge to the Over.
Jimmy Crooks Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-110) vs. Blue Jays
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him finishing with 1.38 hits, runs, and RBIs, suggesting these odds should be -296 — a +22.3% edge to the Over.
