MLB Best Bets Today July 31
It will be a busy Friday night on the diamond, as one day game between the Yankees and Cubs is the only one that will start early. Otherwise, we’ve got 14 games at 6:10 p.m. ET or later and even then, only one starts before 7:05. For those having a Friday night in, there will be plenty of baseball to watch. For those who are not, well, fire up those apps and keep tabs on tonight’s scores. It’s a huge weekend with the Trade Deadline on Monday, so there will be a lot of meaningful baseball tonight and over the next few days.
I’ll be posting my daily best bets Monday-Saturday with a Sunday Night Baseball preview on Sunday, as all the day games make it tough to get something out with lead time out here in Las Vegas. All lines are from DraftKings and are current at the time of publish. Please take the initiative to SHOP AROUND for the best odds. It matters. A lot.
One new offering this baseball season is our Opta AI Player Prop Projections. They are for VSiN Pro Subscribers only, so you can check out our current offers here. Zachary Cohen will be using those projections and his own handicapping to write up MLB player props.
Greg Peterson will have his best bets posted the night before and you can also check out his daily lines to see what looks to be off-market. Steve Makinen has also released his updated Bullpen Betting Systems and DraftKings Splits Systems, plus he’ll have a daily analytics report.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.
Here are the MLB best bets today for July 31:
Marlins vs. Mets Prediction
Pick: Mets -131
The Mets are a mess and Freddy Peralta, if he makes this start, is a good bet to be traded after he was one of the offseason’s big acquisitions. However, they may not be as much of a mess as the Marlins, who have gone from playoff contender to seller. And they may not even be as much of a mess as Janson Junk on the road.
The Miami right-hander had a phenomenal start to the season with a 3.00 ERA over his first 33 innings. It’s been all downhill since. I’ll get back to that in a second. Since I teased the road numbers, let’s talk about those, as he sports a 6.31 ERA in 25.2 innings away from loanDepot Park with a .298/.351/.519 slash and a .373 wOBA against.
Let’s be generous and even include Junk’s first May start, a strong home effort against the Phillies, to his first 38.1 innings, where he had an ERA under 3.00. Since May 6, a span of seven starts, Junk has a 7.13 ERA with a 4.60 xERA and a 5.37 FIP. In his three road starts in that span, he has allowed 14 runs on 23 hits in 14.2 innings of work. He held the Blue Jays to one run on May 25, but gave up eight hits and only struck out three.
Peralta hasn’t worked out for the Mets, but his 3.83 xERA with a 4.99 ERA suggests to whichever team acquires him that he could have some success. His 68.4% LOB% and .313 BABIP against, his highest since he became a full-time starter, are definitely working against him. Positive regression is coming. Maybe it’ll come here and juice a trade return a bit for the Mets.
Miami swept Philly at home earlier in the week and then went right back to futility with a 4-2 loss to the Mets last night. They’ve only won three games in the second half. It’s a pretty bad ballclub right now and Junk’s road splits are definitely worrisome enough to lay a price here.
Tigers vs. Athletics Prediction
Pick: Athletics +135
AUTHOR EDIT: It was announced that Casey Mize has been scratched from tonight’s start. Springs and the A’s are still a bet at +123 vs. TBD (likely a bullpen game).
The Tigers are out on the road for a nine-game, three-city trip a long way from Motown, as they open up a three-game set with the A’s. This is not likely to be a fun trip for them, as Tarik Skubal is expected to be traded and so is tonight’s scheduled starter, Casey Mize. After a devastating 10-9 collapse against the Orioles at home on Wednesday in Skubal’s final home outing, I really don’t expect to see a motivated and focused Tigers team here or really on any part of the trip.
While they should be excited to face Jeffrey Springs, who left his last start with hip pain after recording just five outs and allowing five runs, the Tigers have not hit lefties well of late, slashing just .230/.277/.357 against southpaws in July with a 26.7% K% and a 6.4% BB%. Springs does have a 6.23 ERA for the season and a 6.01 FIP, so he is a really tough guy to want to back, especially in a hitter-happy park, but I’m really not sure Detroit will be happy to show up at the yard tonight.
The A’s avoided disaster with Nick Kurtz, as he was hit on the forearm by a pitch, but still played yesterday against the Red Sox. Injuries have taken a toll on the lineup this season and have kept down what was thought to be a pretty promising group. Mize has excellent numbers this season with a 2.70 ERA, 3.08 xERA, and a 2.58 FIP, but I am concerned here in this start, assuming he makes it.
Mize has just a 4.5% HR/FB% with a 32.2% GB%. He’s been very fortunate to not have more fly balls leave the yard. It should be mentioned that four of the five homers he has allowed have come on the road in 41 innings. It probably also bears noting that his road starts have been in Arizona, Atlanta, Boston, Houston, Angel Stadium, Minnesota, New York, and Texas. There are some good pitcher’s parks there and four of his eight road starts came April 28 or earlier.
Now he’s out in Sactown with temps in the 90s. I think this could be a tough start for that reason, along with the fact that he was drafted by the Tigers in 2018 and may be leaving the only organization he’s known.
Mix in a really, really bad Tigers bullpen of late and I think the A’s are worthy of this plus-money shot.
Giants vs. Padres Prediction
Pick: Carson Whisenhunt (SF) 5+ Strikeouts (+152)
With a cost-prohibitive number on Over 3.5 strikeouts, let’s look at 5+ here for Whisenhunt, who is making his fourth start of the season at the MLB level. The 25-year-old southpaw made a cameo appearance in June and has made a couple of outings in July, but this will be his second straight start at the big-league level.
Whisenhunt had a 24.4% SwStr% last time out with a 44.9% Chase Rate, racking up seven strikeouts in five innings against the Angels. While the Padres generally don’t strike out a ton, those are impressive numbers and something to build on. Whisenhunt also had a 71.4% F-Strike% in that start, as he really filled up the strike zone early in the count and then induced a lot of weak contact and some punchies late.
He did give up four runs, so that is concerning, but his peripherals suggest that he was better than his stat line. Again, with Over 3.5 at -152 and then 5+ at +152, I feel like there’s some equity in this price.
