Player props have become one of baseball’s most entertaining ways to bet, offering value well beyond the moneyline, run line, or game total. Each day, this column highlights the best opportunities on the board — from strikeouts and hits to total bases and pitcher outs recorded — using matchup data, recent form, and betting trends to identify edges. Keep reading for the top MLB player prop picks for June 4. Also, make sure you check out our live VSiN programming for more. Our hosts and analysts will be all over the MLB, which is why it pays to be a VSiN Pro subscriber.
MORE: Check out the VSiN Pro Picks page for more bets from our talented hosts and analysts!
Thursday Player Prop Best Bets
Below you’ll find my official plays on the player prop market for Thursday. These are the ones that make the VSiN Pro Picks page and count towards my season-long record. I’ll write three up per day, but I’ll add additional ones in an “Additional Best Bets” section. I go lighter on baseball than I do other sports. My MLB units are 50% of what my normal units are.
Seth Lugo Under 17.5 Outs Recorded (+112) vs. Twins
Royals at Twins – 7:40 pm ET
Lugo has gone Over 17.5 Outs Recorded in nine of his 12 starts this year, but I’m taking him to have a bit of a shorter outing tonight. Pitching inside a hitter-friendly ball park, I just don’t see this being a start in which Lugo cruises. Minnesota’s lineup is a little better than we have seen recently.
Shota Imanaga Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+110) vs. Athletics
Athletics at Cubs – 8:05 pm ET
Imanaga’s strikeouts are way down since the start of the year. After opening the season with at least seven strikeouts in three of his first four starts, we have seen four straight games — and seven of the last eight — in which the southpaw has gone Under. However, the A’s do have a very high K rate against lefties (24.9%). This should be a good matchup for him to get back on track.
Jared Jones Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+100 – 1.5 units) & Alt Strikeouts 7+ (+204) vs. Astros
Pirates at Astros – 8:10 pm ET
Jones had six strikeouts in his first start of the year, throwing 77 pitches in a game in which he was shelled by the Twins. Let’s see how he bounces back against the Astros, but another six Ks — and possibly more — can fully be expected for a righty with his impressive stuff. Let’s just hope to see a pitch count of 90+.
Additional Picks
Lucas Giolito Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-132) vs. Phillies
Bryan Bello Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-150 – 1.5 units) & Alt Strikeouts 5+ (+150 – 0.5 units) & Alt Strikeouts 6+ (+335 – 0.25 units) vs. Orioles
Ben Rice Over 1.5 HRR (-150) vs. Guardians
Adrian Houser Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-115) vs. Brewers
Noteworthy OptaAI Player Prop Edges
Check out the BRAND NEW OptaAI Player Props MLB pages for more of these! VSiN Pro subscribers can find 50+ player prop ideas on a daily basis! We’ll list the top edges in some of the biggest markets below, but there will always be a lot more to uncover on the pages themselves.
Yohendrick Pinango Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-114) vs. Braves
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him going for 1.35 hits, runs, and RBIs, suggesting these odds should be -114 — a +20.8% edge to the Over.
Jared Triolo Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-154) vs. Astros
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him finishing with 1.59 hits, runs, and RBIs, suggesting these odds should be -391 — a +19.0% edge to the Over.
Moises Ballesteros Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (+102) vs. Athletics
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him projected for 2.30 hits, runs, and RBIs, suggesting these odds should be -202 — a +17.4% edge to the Over.
