Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Thursday, June 4, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Trend: Home teams in the Royals-Twins AL Central rivalry are on a 40-14 (74.1%, +25.10 units) run in head-to-head play.
– The ROI on this trend is 46.5%
Trend Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-102 vs KC)
MLB Series Betting System #12: Home favorites/pick ’ems playing in the last game of an interleague series, lost their last game and facing an opponent who exhausted their bullpen for 5+ innings last game have gone 48-23 SU for +11.43 units (ROI: 16.1%) in the last six seasons
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-136 vs ATH)
Trend: PHI is 28-12 (+9.58 units) in the last 40 day game starts by Zach Wheeler
Trend: Zach Wheeler’s teams are 7-1 (+5.26 units) when he starts vs San Diego in the last 6+ seasons
Trends Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-218 vs SD)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another go against angle that does well. To start the 2026 season, these teams are again struggling, 35-54 for -23.24 units and an ROI of -26.1%!
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN DIEGO (+178 at PHI), BOSTON (-118 vs BAL), CLEVELAND (+134 at NYY)
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid fade angle! For 2026, they are off to a rare positive start, 71-85 for +8.19 units. This is lasting longer than I would expect.
System Match (FADE): SAN FRANCISCO (+159 at MIL)
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and a winning percentage >=19% higher than the opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. After a 133-43 finish for +25 units in the 2025 season, this angle will take a three-year record of 385-146 for +33.01 units (ROI 6.2%) into the 2026 campaign. The 2026 teams meeting this criteria are 29-15 but for -7.33 units so far.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (-194 vs SF), ATLANTA (-218 vs TOR)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick em’). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season is off to a slower start, 119-140 for -7.17 units.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): SAN DIEGO (+178 at PHI), CLEVELAND (+134 at NYY), MINNESOTA (-102 vs KC), PITTSBURGH (-107 at HOU)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-2025 regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they are off to a 77-90 start for -6.31 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-207 vs SD), ATHLETICS (+113 at CHC)
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, and it is now 62-73 for -3.49 units.
System Match (FADE): TORONTO (+178 at ATL)
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025, regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #2: Teams wrapping up a series and riding at least a three-game losing streak are 437-462 but for +26.06 units and an ROI of 2.9% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN DIEGO (+178 at PHI), TORONTO (+178 at ATL), CHICAGO CUBS (-136 vs ATH)
MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 383-424 but for +94.40 units and an ROI of 11.7% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN DIEGO (+178 at PHI), TORONTO (+178 at ATL)
MLB Series Betting System #12: Home favorites/pick ’ems playing in the last game of an interleague series, lost their last game and facing an opponent who exhausted their bullpen for 5+ innings last game have gone 48-23 SU for +11.43 units (ROI: 16.1%) in the L6 seasons
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-136 vs ATH)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2107-2683 (44%) for -273.00 units and an ROI of -5.7% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN DIEGO (+178 at PHI), BALTIMORE (-102 at BOS), SAN FRANCISCO (+159 at MIL)
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 636-527 (54.7%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +25.39 units, for an ROI of 2.2%.
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-102 vs KC)
Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 339-303 (52.7%) for +21.21 units and an ROI of 3.3% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Match (PLAY): ARIZONA (+114 vs LAD)
Poor pitching on the season = good bet as underdog?
Teams who lost their last game after giving up 15+ hits and allow >= 4.6 RPG on the season have surprisingly been good wagers in the next game as underdogs in the -109 to +215 line range, sporting a record for 189-225 SU record for +37.98 units and an ROI of 9.2% since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (-102 at BOS)
MLB Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios.
MLB Team Strength Betting System #3:
In MLB games with high totals (>= 10.5), underdogs between the +116 to +180 line range have gone 220-252 SU but for +46.96 units (ROI: 9.9%) since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): NONE YET BUT WATCH FOR ATHLETICS at CHC (+113 CURRENTLY, O/U 10.5)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #7:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 300-311 run (+11.81 units, ROI: 1.9%).
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): SAN DIEGO (+178 at PHI)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: MINNESOTA -102 (+31 diff), SAN DIEGO +178 (+21)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: BAL-BOS UNDER 10.5 (-0.9), SF-MIL UNDER 9 (-0.5)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(901) SAN DIEGO (32-28) at (902) PHILADELPHIA (32-29)
Trend: Lucas Giolito’s teams are 16-20 (-6.28 units) in his last 36 starts against the NL
Trend Match (FADE): SAN DIEGO (+178 at PHI)
Trend: PHI is 28-12 (+9.58 units) in the last 40 DAY game starts by Zach Wheeler
Trend: Zach Wheeler’s teams are 7-1 (+5.26 units) vs San Diego in the last 6+ seasons
Trends Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-218 vs SD)
(903) SAN FRANCISCO (24-38) at (904) MILWAUKEE (37-22)
Trend: Adrian Houser’s teams are 28-14 (+15.17 units) in his last 42 DAY game starts
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (+159 at MIL)
Trend: Under the total is 20-11-2 (+7.90 units) when SF is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SF-MIL (o/u at 9)
(905) LOS ANGELES-NL (40-22) at (906) ARIZONA (32-29)
Trend: AZ is 10-3 (+6.24 units) on the run line vs LH starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY): ARIZONA (+1.5 vs LAD)
(907) BALTIMORE (29-33) at (908) BOSTON (26-34)
Trend: Trevor Rogers’ teams are 18-41 (-18.59 units) when he starts as an underdog within line range -109 to +154 since 2020
Trend Match (FADE): BALTIMORE (-102 at BOS)
Trend: Over the total is 18-9-2 (+8.10 units) in BAL day games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): BAL-BOS (o/u at 10.5)
(909) CLEVELAND (36-27) at (910) NEW YORK-AL (36-25)
Trend: CLE is 15-6 (+8.64 units) vs LH starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (+134 at NYY)
(911) KANSAS CITY (24-38) at (912) MINNESOTA (29-34)
Trend: Over the total is 22-13-4 (+7.70 units) when MIN is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): KC-MIN (o/u at 9)
(913) TORONTO (29-33) at (914) ATLANTA (42-20)
Trend: Under the total is 19-8-2 (+10.20 units) in ATL home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): TOR-ATL (o/u at 7.5)
(915) ATHLETICS (30-31) at (916) CHICAGO-NL (32-30)
Trend: CHC is 17-29 (-9.23 units) on the run line as a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (FADE): CHICAGO CUBS (-1.5 vs ATH)
Trend: CHC is 33-15 (+11.77 units) against teams with a < 0.57% win pct with starter Shota Imanaga since start of 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-136 vs ATH)
(917) PITTSBURGH (33-29) at (918) HOUSTON (28-35)
Trend: Over the total is 20-10-1 (+9.00 units) in HOU home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): PIT-HOU (o/u at 8.5)
Top Head-to-Head Series MLB Betting Trends
Series #9: Kansas City at Minnesota, Thu 6/4-Sun 6/7
Trend: Home teams in the Royals-Twins AL Central rivalry are on a 40-14 (74.1%, +25.10 units) run in head-to-head play.
– The ROI on this trend is 46.5%
Trend Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-102 vs KC)
Series #23: Toronto at Atlanta, Tue 6/2-Thu 6/4
Trend: ATLANTA is 6-13 (31.6%, -10.44 units) in the last 19 games against Toronto (since mid-2020)
– The ROI on this trend is -54.9%
Trend Match (FADE): ATLANTA (-218 vs TOR)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money & ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:15 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% 3-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 282-127 (68.9%) for +27.68 units and an ROI of +6.8%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 15%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA, MILWAUKEE, ATLANTA
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATLANTA, ATHLETICS, HOUSTON
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 360-329 (52.2%) for -118.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -17.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON, HOUSTON
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next couple tomorrow, June 5)
