Player props have become one of baseball’s most entertaining ways to bet, offering value well beyond the moneyline, run line, or game total. Each day, this column highlights the best opportunities on the board — from strikeouts and hits to total bases and pitcher outs recorded — using matchup data, recent form, and betting trends to identify edges. Keep reading for the top MLB player prop picks for September 18. Also, make sure you check out our live VSiN programming for more. Our hosts and analysts will be all over the MLB, which is why it pays to be a VSiN Pro subscriber.
MORE: Check out the VSiN Pro Picks page for more bets from our talented hosts and analysts!
Friday Player Prop Best Bets
Below you’ll find my official plays on the player prop market for Friday. These are the ones that make the VSiN Pro Picks page and count towards my season-long record. I’ll write three up per day, but I’ll add additional ones in an “Additional Best Bets” section. I go lighter on baseball than I do other sports. My MLB units are 50% of what my normal units are.
Elly De La Cruz Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-112) vs. Cubs
Cubs at Reds – 6:40 pm ET
There looks to be a good chance of rain for this game, so hopefully they’re able to play it. The forecast does make things look a little better a couple of hours later, so I’m hoping they’re able to figure it out — even if it just starts a little later. That said, I’m going to fire on De La Cruz, who has been outrageous lately. Over the last 18 games, he’s averaging 3.1 hits, runs, and RBIs per game. He’s also averaging 2.7 HRR per game against righties over the last 15 game. So, if this game is played, he’ll enjoy seeing righty Clay Holmes.
Dylan Cease Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-148 – 1.5 units) & Over 7.5 Strikeouts (+123 – 0.5 units) & Over 8.5 Strikeouts (+248 – 0.25 units) vs. Rangers
Blue Jays at Rangers – 8:05 pm ET
Cease is averaging 8.4 strikeouts per game over the last 15 games. The righty now faces a Rangers team that is just 22nd in MLB in strikeout rate this year, plus the team is 25th in whiff percentage. This is a good matchup with pitchers that have strong stuff, and Cease certainly does. This is also a game that will be played in a pitcher-friendly environment, and Cease had 10 strikeouts against Texas on June 27.
Randy Arozarena Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (+118) vs. Rockies
Mariners at Rockies – 8:10 pm ET
Over the last 16 games, Arozarena is averaging 3.6 hits, runs, and RBIs. He now brings that momentum to Coors Field, which is the most hitter-friendly park in baseball. I really don’t care who the Rockies toss out there to pitch to him, I like Arozarena to have a big game. He has come through for us a ton lately.
Additional Picks
Gerrit Cole Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-117) vs. Diamondbacks
Mookie Betts Over 1.5 Total Bases (+120) vs. Giants
Noteworthy OptaAI Player Prop Edges
Check out the OptaAI Player Props MLB pages for more of these! VSiN Pro subscribers can find 50+ player prop ideas on a daily basis! We’ll list the top edges in some of the biggest markets below, but there will always be a lot more to uncover on the pages themselves.
Chase Burns Over 2.5 Hits Allowed (-101) vs. Cubs
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him finishing with 4.98 hits allowed, suggesting these odds should be -689 — a +37.1% edge to the Over.
Kyle Leahy Over 0.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-121) vs. Nationals
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him finishing with 2.01 earned runs allowed, suggesting these odds should be -643 — a +31.8% edge to the Over.
Paul Skenes Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+106) vs. Royals
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him finishing with 7.53 strikeouts, suggesting these odds should be –320 — a +27.6% edge to the Over.
