The following MLB betting is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Friday, September 18, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

Trend: PIT is 13-2 (+10.17 units) in home night games versus non-divisional opponents with starter Paul Skenes since the beginning of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (-193 vs KC)

Small road favorites of -111 to -130 have been a solid wager in the opening game of a new series, going 266-198 for +25.44 units and an ROI of 5.5% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (-120 at HOU), WASHINGTON (-111 at STL), NY YANKEES (-119 at AZ)

Since the start of the 2023 regular season, teams on two-game winning streaks but with worse SM Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone just 831-913 for -107.35 units, an ROI of -6.2%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-108 at NYM), MIAMI (+179 at SD), SAN FRANCISCO (+248 at LAD)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The two-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, these teams are around the profitability line at 209-169 for +0.08 units (ROI: 0.02%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (+113 at TB), NY METS (-112 vs PHI), TORONTO (-137 at TEX), WASHINGTON (-111 at STL)

STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS

Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game went 65-69 for -22.93 units when not matched up against similar teams in 2025. This represents an ROI of -17.1%, and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen has to be accounted for in all games. This is a go-against angle, which can often prove as or more valuable than systems that suggest backing teams. For 2026, these teams are 64-56 for -10.48 units for an ROI of -8.7%.
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (-111 at STL)

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another go-against angle that does well. For the 2026 season, these teams are again struggling, 92-135 for -46.49 units and an ROI of -20.5%!
System Match (FADE): BALTIMORE (+119 vs MIL)

Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid fade angle! For 2026, with a couple of weeks left, they are now 152-232 for -32.38 units (-8.4% ROI) after losing about 42 units over the three months.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATHLETICS (+187 at CLE), COLORADO (+158 vs SEA)

Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference between teams is <19%
In the last three regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 427-241 record, but for -131.5 units. This has been an ROI of -19.7%! The 2025 record was 120-59 for -13.3 units. The 2026 record is 110-59 for -20.92 units, ROI -12.4%!
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH (-193 vs KC), CLEVELAND (-231 vs ATH), SEATTLE (-193 at COL), SAN DIEGO (-219 vs MIA)

Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. After a 133-43 finish for +25 units in the 2025 season, this angle will take a three-year record of 385-146 for +33.01 units (ROI 6.2%) into the 2026 campaign. The 2026 teams meeting this criteria are 47-22 but for -6.73 units so far.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): LA DODGERS (-313 vs SF)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings in the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season has been slower than usual, 311-376 for -23.32 units, ROI -3.4%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): BOSTON (+113 at TB), HOUSTON (+100 vs ATL), LA ANGELS (-105 vs MIN)

Better bullpen small favorite teams in the -111 to -126 range are thriving in 2026
So far in 2026, small favorite teams in the -111 to -126 line range with a SM Bullpen Rating edge have fared quite well. Last season this was about a -6% ROI angle. However, there is some foundation to the system in that with teams this closely matched together by the oddsmakers, it can often be good bullpen performance that separates the teams. For 2026 so far, these teams are 250-181 for +36.19 units, an ROI of +8.4%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY METS (-112 vs PHI), WASHINGTON (-111 at STL), NY YANKEES (-119 at AZ)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle to extend winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen rating that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-2025 regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they are off to a 183-217 start for -47.65 units (ROI -11.9%). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last three regular seasons with a record of 293-318 for -26.2 units. ROI on that was -4.3%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, and the 2026 results so far show a record of 83-104 for -20.10 units and a solid ROI of -10.7%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2-games – PHILADELPHIA (-108 at NYM), MIAMI (+179 at SD), SAN FRANCISCO (+248 at LAD)
3+ games – BALTIMORE (+119 vs MIL), TAMPA BAY (-136 vs BOS)

Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, and it is now 163-186 for +3.20 units.
System Match (FADE): ATHLETICS (+187 at CLE)

MLB Series Systems

The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.

MLB Series Betting System #1: Teams starting a new series and riding at least a three-game winning streak are 540-428 for +49.89 units and an ROI of 5.2% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE (+119 vs MIL), TAMPA BAY (-136 vs BOS)

MLB Series Betting System #3: Small road favorites of -111 to -130 have been a solid wager in the opening game of a new series, going 266-198 for +25.44 units and an ROI of 5.5% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (-120 at HOU), WASHINGTON (-111 at STL), NY YANKEES (-119 at AZ)

MLB Series Betting System #6: Small home underdogs of -109 to +120 have been awful in the first game of a series when welcoming a new opponent in a multi-series homestand, going 163-204 for -38.91 units and an ROI of -10.6% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI (+119 vs CHC), TEXAS (+114 vs TOR), HOUSTON (+100 vs ATL), ST LOUIS (-108 vs WSH), ARIZONA (-102 vs NYY)

MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 482-429 record for +45.45 units and an ROI of 5% since the start of the 2022 season, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (-143 at CIN), SEATTLE (-193 at COL)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 2,241-2,124 (51.3%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -279.68 units. This represents an ROI of -6.4%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TAMPA BAY (-136 vs BOS), SAN DIEGO (-219 vs MIA)

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2311-2901 (44.3%) for -275.71 units and an ROI of -5.3% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): KANSAS CITY (+158 at PIT), DETROIT (+109 at CWS), WASHINGTON (-111 at STL), ATHLETICS (+187 at CLE)

Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 690-576 (54.5%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +21.78 units, for an ROI of 1.7%.
System Match (PLAY): NY METS (-112 vs PHI)

Lucky teams can’t escape bad pitching
Teams who won their last game despite their bullpen blowing a save have gone 118-173 SU (-28.34 units, ROI: -9.7%) as underdogs in the follow-up contest since May 2024.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA ANGELS (-105 vs MIN), SAN FRANCISCO (+248 at LAD)

Poor pitching on the season = good bet as underdog?
Teams who lost their last game after giving up 15+ hits and allow >= 4.6 RPG on the season have surprisingly been good wagers in the next game as underdogs in the -109 to +215 line range, sporting a record of 207-244 SU record for +41.89 units and an ROI of 9.3% since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): COLORADO (+159 vs SEA)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

Losing Streak Betting System #7:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 341-351 run (+14.43 units, ROI: 2.1%).
System Match (PLAY): NY METS (-112 vs PHI)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Theoretically, green star “edges” come up when a team has an odds edge of 15 cents over the actual price. That is a legacy thing. However, this year I have recorded that a 10-cent edge is actually better, as teams with an edge of 10 cents against the actual odds have gone 647-644 for +13.63 units, good for +1.1% ROI. 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: SAN FRANCISCO +248 (+65 diff), MIAMI +179 (+25), BOSTON +113 (+17), HOUSTON +100 (+14)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Match: TORONTO -137 (+36 diff)

If you’re looking for something that has produced with a little less ROI but provides more opportunities, consider the situation where on Under projections so far when the simulation shows at least a 0.6 run edge, Unders are 125-101 for +11.40 units and an ROI of 5%.
TODAY’s MATCH: KC-PIT UNDER 8.5 (-0.9)

Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.

(901) CHICAGO-NL (85-68) at (902) CINCINNATI (71-82)
Trend: Under the total is 13-8 (+4.10 units) in the competitive -140 to +140 line range with starter Chase Burns in his career
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CHC-CIN (o/u at 8.5)

(907) MIAMI (76-77) at (908) SAN DIEGO (84-69)
Trend: Nick Pivetta’s teams are 13-1 in his last 14 home starts as a favorite of -195 or higher
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (-219 vs MIA)

(909) SAN FRANCISCO (64-89) at (910) LOS ANGELES-NL (93-60)
Trend: Tyler Glasnow’s teams are 49-16 (+11.99 units) when he starts as a favorite of -166 or higher in the last 6+ seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-313 vs SF)

(911) BOSTON (83-70) at (912) TAMPA BAY (93-59)
Trend: Ranger Suarez’s teams are 23-11 (+12.26 units) when he starts in the line range -115 to +115 in the last 4+ seasons
Trend: Ranger Suarez’s teams are 16-9 (+8.52 units) in his last 25 road night game starts against opponents with a winning record
Trends Match (PLAY): BOSTON (+113 at TB)
Trend: TB is 53-25 (+16.36 units) in home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-136 vs ATH)

(919) MINNESOTA (71-82) at (920) LOS ANGELES-AL (59-94)
Trend: Over the total is 46-23-6 (+20.70 units) in MIN road games this seasonTrend Match (PLAY OVER): MIN-LAA (o/u at 8)
Trend: LAA is 39-73 (-18.54 units) as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (FADE): LA ANGELS (-105 vs MIN)

(921) KANSAS CITY (67-86) at (922) PITTSBURGH (76-77)
Trend: Over the total is 45-28-2 (+14.20 units) in PIT home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): KC-PIT (o/u at 8.5)
Trend: PIT is 13-2 (+10.17 units) in home night games versus non-divisional opponents with starter Paul Skenes since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (-193 vs KC)

(923) MILWAUKEE (95-58) at (924) BALTIMORE (75-78)
Trend: Under the total is 30-14-3 (+14.60 units) when MIL faces LH starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): MIL-BAL (o/u at 8.5)

(927) SEATTLE (71-82) at (928) COLORADO (56-97)
Trend: SEA is 29-49 (-21.05 units) on the run line in road games this season
Trend Match (FADE): SEATTLE (-1.5 at COL)

(929) NEW YORK-AL (88-64) at (930) ARIZONA (80-73)
Trend: AZ is 16-6 (+9.65 units) in Eduardo Rodriguez’s last 22 home starts
Trend Match (PLAY): ARIZONA (-102 vs NYY)

Series #31: Athletics at Cleveland, Fri 9/18-Sun 9/20
Trend: CLEVELAND is on a 23-6 (79.3%, +15.56 units) run versus the Athletics dating back to April 2022
– The ROI on this trend is 53.7%
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-231 vs ATH)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:50 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% three-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 282-127 (68.9%) for +27.68 units and an ROI of +6.8%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 15%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND, LA DODGERS

DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Similar to #2, Majority handle groups have been steady when not too many of them hop on an Underdog side since the beginning of the 2024 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 51-66%. These groups have gone 289-312 (48.1%) for a very minimal -1.8 units loss and an ROI of -0.3%. This represents an improvement of 8.2% on the overall numbers and gives bettors a chance to stay afloat when they go against the grain.
System Match (CONSIDER): BOSTON

DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: Majority handle bettors have been sound over the last three seasons when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group is 300-89 (77.1%) for +40 units and an ROI of 10.3%. This is a nice rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but with prices like this, things can turn fast, so consider the risk when backing.
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH, MILWAUKEE, ATLANTA, SEATTLE, NY YANKEES

Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.

COLORADO    
Momentum after series vs. SAN DIEGO: 20-18 (52.6%) +8.14 units, ROI: 21.4%
Trend Match (PLAY): COLORADO (+159 vs SEA)

SAN DIEGO    
Momentum after series vs. COLORADO: 25-13 (65.8%) +12.56 units, ROI: 33.1% 
Trend Match (PLAY):  SAN DIEGO (-219 vs MIA)

SPONSORED

RECORD BREAKER!  ROBERT FERRINGO just had one of the biggest football weeks in Doc’s Sports’ 56-year history! Robert banked +3,720 with his football picks (documented HERE) and added another +2,350 with his football props (documented HERE). That is an electrifying +6,070 in winnings and he’s looking to add to it this weekend!

Access his premium picks at Doc’s Sports with a free $60 new member account. Get your free trial here!

RELATED ARTICLESMORE FROM AUTHOR