Player props have become one of baseball’s most entertaining ways to bet, offering value well beyond the moneyline, run line, or game total. Each day, this column highlights the best opportunities on the board — from strikeouts and hits to total bases and pitcher outs recorded — using matchup data, recent form, and betting trends to identify edges. Keep reading for the top MLB player prop picks for September 21. Also, make sure you check out our live VSiN programming for more. Our hosts and analysts will be all over the MLB, which is why it pays to be a VSiN Pro subscriber.
MORE: Check out the VSiN Pro Picks page for more bets from our talented hosts and analysts!
Monday Player Prop Best Bets
Below you’ll find my official plays on the player prop market for Monday. These are the ones that make the VSiN Pro Picks page and count towards my season-long record. I’ll write three up per day, but I’ll add additional ones in an “Additional Best Bets” section. I go lighter on baseball than I do other sports. My MLB units are 50% of what my normal units are.
Brett Bateman Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-115) vs. Orioles
Blue Jays at Orioles – 6:35 pm ET
Bateman has had at least two HRR in seven of his last nine games — and 10 of his last 16. Also, this season, Bateman is averaging 2.4 HRR per game against righties. He has been very consistent when getting to face right-handed pitching, and he’s catching Shane Baz at the right time. Baz has allowed at least three earned runs in five of his last seven starts.
River Ryan Over 2.5 Strikeouts (+105) vs. Nationals
Nationals at Tigers – 6:40 pm ET
Ryan, acquired in the deal that sent Tarik Skubal to the Dodgers, will make his debut for the Tigers tonight. We really don’t know how long he’ll get to work in this game, but I’ll take my chances with him finishing with three strikeouts. Ryan is viewed as a pitcher with game-changing stuff, and he’s the top pitching prospect in the Detroit system.
Brooks Lee Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-117 – 1.5 units) vs. Giants
Twins at Giants – 9:45 pm ET
I really like Lee to finish with at least two HRR tonight. He’ll be facing righty Blake Tidwell this evening, and going up against right-handed pitching has been very kind to him lately. Over the last 19 games, Lee is averaging 2.6 HRR per game against righty starters. So, going up against a hittable one tonight, there’s really no reason he can’t do it again. Lee happens to crush sliders, which make up 41% of Tidwell’s pitch mix. He’s also good against fastballs, which make up another 33%.
Additional Picks
None today.
Noteworthy OptaAI Player Prop Edges
Check out the OptaAI Player Props MLB pages for more of these! VSiN Pro subscribers can find 50+ player prop ideas on a daily basis! We’ll list the top edges in some of the biggest markets below, but there will always be a lot more to uncover on the pages themselves.
DJ Herz Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-117) vs. Tigers
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him finishing with 5.86 strikeouts, suggesting these odds should be -508 — a +29.6% edge to the Over.
Colton Cowser Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-126) vs. Blue Jays
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him finishing with 1.43 hits, runs, and RBIs, suggesting these odds should be -318 — a +20.3% edge to the Over.
Josh Smith Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-160) vs. Orioles
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him finishing with 1.61 hits, runs, and RBIs, suggesting these odds should be -401 — a +18.5% edge to the Over.
