MLB Best Bets Today September 21
Today is the calm before this week’s storm. The remaining races aren’t sexy in nature by any means, as they involve some mediocre teams in the AL Central and AL West, but we do have some seeding situations up for grabs as we hit the final week of the regular season. There are only three games today and none of them really have any playoff implications. The Blue Jays are three games out of the final Wild Card spot, but it’s a tough ask at this point.
One thing I do want to mention about this week is looking at player props for guys who are trying to reach round numbers or career-highs. Those are guys who will still be locked in. Ben Rice and Hunter Goodman are one home run away from 40. Pete Alonso is two and Rafael Devers is three. Max Muncy needs one HR for 40, while Manny Machado, Bryce Harper, Elly De La Cruz, and Jordan Walker are two away. Chandler Simpson needs four stolen bases for 50. PCA needs two for a 40-40 season. Some guys are a few RBI short of 100. Stuff like that can be valuable to invest in this week.
I’ll be posting my daily best bets Monday-Saturday with a Sunday Night Baseball preview on Sunday, as all the day games make it tough to get something out with lead time out here in Las Vegas. All lines are from DraftKings and are current at the time of publish. Please take the initiative to SHOP AROUND for the best odds. It matters. A lot.
One new offering this baseball season is our Opta AI Player Prop Projections. They are for VSiN Pro Subscribers only, so you can check out our current offers here. Zachary Cohen will be using those projections and his own handicapping to write up MLB player props.
Greg Peterson will have his best bets posted the night before and you can also check out his daily lines to see what looks to be off-market.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats.
Here are the MLB best bets today for September 21:
Blue Jays vs. Orioles Prediction
Pick: Blue Jays -104
We’ll see a Johnny Wholestaff approach again today for the Blue Jays, as Trey Yesavage makes his first MLB start since August 4. Yesavage only made one appearance in the minors and allowed two runs on two hits out of five batters faced and recorded a couple of outs. It took him 34 pitches to get those two outs. I’d imagine we’re looking at 40ish pitches here in an opener type of scenario. If for nothing else, it gives Yesavage something to build on heading into the offseason.
The downside with Yesavage today is that Spencer Miles and Spencer Arrighetti were both needed yesterday, so there is no traditional long man for Toronto today. However, that might not be a bad thing. I really like Miles, but I could take it or leave it with Arrighetti. Usually long relievers are the lowest guys on the totem pole and therefore not the best relief options. Today, the Jays will be forced to mix and match with guys like Joe Mantiply, Brendon Little, and Braydon Fisher. Also, the Orioles lineup is going to see a bevy of pitchers from both sides, as the Jays have four lefties in the pen and I think all of them have the chance at pitching today after the right-handed Yesavage.
Shane Baz left his last start when he took a 105 mph rocket off the elbow. He said he was fine and probably could have stayed in the game with a little more time to get feeling back, but it’s not like he was pitching well to begin with. For the season, Baz has made 30 starts and worked 173 innings with a 4.11 ERA, 4.21 xERA, and a 3.61 FIP, so it’s been a pretty good season on the whole. But, it’s not like Baz was pitching well in that last start and hasn’t been for a while.
He’s got a 5.40 ERA with a 4.38 xERA and a 4.52 FIP over his last seven starts with 22 runs allowed on 40 hits in 36.2 innings of work. In that span, he has allowed a 41.2% Hard Hit%. He’s also given up six Barrels over his last three starts. His velocity has been down at times and his arm angle has dropped a little, a potential sign of fatigue.
Over the last 14 days, the Jays are seventh in wOBA at .346 against RHP, while the Orioles are 13th at .330, largely because they’ve hit for some power. Their 28.7% K% is the third-highest in that span. With Yesavage and then a bunch of relievers, I’d expect the Jays to put a lot more balls in play than the Orioles against a collection of specialists.
