Bet on these managers now to win the AL and NL Manager of the Year Award:
In the next couple of weeks, expect to hear a lot of analysis regarding MLB’s Awards futures. The 100-plus games teams have played have created enough data that both bookmakers and bettors are aligned with who the favorites, contenders, and no-chance longshots are for the MVP, Cy Young, and Rookie of the Year in both leagues. That means that the odds for these awards have shrunk considerably and are universal across all the books. Thus making it difficult to add in some late July awards wagers.
There is a different route bettors can take instead of trying to barge in now on these three main awards. It starts by heading over to FanDuel in a state where the Manager of the Year Award is offered. Be aware it isn’t universally listed and can be off the board for extended periods. This market offers futures value since it takes less action and there are just a few legitimate contenders with FanDuel still offering a plus price on all of them.
Let’s break down the Manager of the Year in both leagues at a time when this award is often overlooked.
American League Manager of the Year
Will Venable (CHW) +115
Kevin Cash (TBR) +240
Chad Tracy (BOS) +900
Stephen Vogt (CLE) +1000
Derek Shelton (MIN) +1100
Skip Schumaker (TEX) +1800
There might be six names listed here, but in reality this award comes down to just two managers: Venable and Tracy. Before stating the case for these two, here is a brief rationale why the others can be eliminated.
Both Cash and Vogt are now victims of their own success. Once again, these two have demonstrated their abilities to turn a limited roster into a contender. Vogt is coming off back-to-back years winning the award, so he has been previously praised by voters. The same holds true for Cash, who won the award in 2020 and 2021.
With neither assured of winning a division title and other “new” options available, voters likely won’t see their 2026 accomplishments as out of the ordinary. Keep in mind for both leagues, no manager has ever won this award in three consecutive seasons.
As for Shelton, leading the depleted Twins to .500 in his first season in the Twin Cities is notable but not really Manager of the Year type work. Byron Buxton is just minutes away from another IL stint, and Joe Ryan could soon be pitching elsewhere.
Texas winning an awful American League West is not enough to boost Schumaker’s candidacy.
That leaves Venable, who has turned a dreadful Chicago franchise into a contender, and Tracy, who revitalized Boston after taking over from Alex Cora in late April.
While Tracy offers more ROI and making the wager while the Red Sox are playing through a historic winning streak may feel good, Venable is the better bet. Boston has plenty of AL East games remaining, and August should be difficult as they will enter the month after a West Coast swing and will play 16 of 29 games on the road.
In order for Tracy to win the award, he is going to have to do damage against Cash’s squad in what could be a key late September series.
Boston (-145) to make the playoffs is a wager with far less of a return but removes the subjectivity of whether Tracy deserves the award over Venable.
Venable’s price has dropped (+115) after holding steady at +130 for the past few weeks, so he is emerging as the clear favorite. There is likely some time sensitivity of wagering on him to lock in a plus price.
Based on Chicago now sitting atop the AL Central with two games in hand against Cleveland, Venable’s odds should be at a minus number. However, FanDuel’s bookmakers and some bettors are still skeptical that a basement-dwelling team for the past three seasons will actually earn a playoff berth. The White Sox have not made the playoffs since 2021, a fact that will be prominent on the Venable card.
Making a wager on Venable at this point is less about him being the best manager in the league and more about the White Sox making the playoffs. His award odds provide more punch than the -165 for Chicago to make the playoffs.
In a watered-down mess of an American League, making the playoffs (either division or Wild Card) wouldn’t be considered that big of an accomplishment for any other team more than the White Sox.
The Tigers languishing in the eighth spot for the AL Wild Card is a boost for Chicago. Detroit dumping Tarik Skubal would make one less division team for the White Sox to fend off.
Either a division title or wild card should make Venable the Manager of the Year. Nonetheless, a division title would be optimal as the last AL manager to win the award without a division crown was Bob Melvin in 2018. When Melvin won that award, it came after Oakland finally made the playoffs after three straight last-place finishes – the same scenario Venable is in line to duplicate.
National League Manager of the Year
Don Mattingly (PHI) +290
Clayton McCullough (MIA) +350
Pat Murphy (MIL) +500
Oliver Marmol (STL) +600
Blake Butera (WSN) +750
Walt Weiss (ATL) (+750)
Don Kelly (PIT) +800
This is an easy board to handicap – no matter who else is listed, it is a two-man race between Mattingly and McCullough. Murphy, like Cash and Voght, has established a reputation of a manager who can win with little. He too is working on back-to-back Manager of the Year awards so a trifecta seems unlikely.
Marmol’s accomplishments won’t trump the trio of Mattingly, McCullough and Murphy. Butera also has too many names in front of him and Washington’s incendiary bullpen hinders the Nationals’ chances of contending for a playoff spot.
Even if Atlanta wins the NL East, the Braves’ June swoon took the luster off Weiss.
Pittsburgh is back in the race now, but its August schedule features trips to Milwaukee, Miami and Los Angeles that will take a toll.
Mattingly, who took over from Rob Thomson in late April, has a similar trajectory to the award like that of Tracy in the AL. The difference in backing Mattingly instead of Tracy in his case is the Phillies should be able to hold off the upstart team that would give their manager a boost by just making the playoffs.
Within two weeks, Philadelphia’s Dave Dombrowski should land the team either a back-of-the-rotation starter or reliever. Miami, on the other hand, is talking about making a deadline deal, but the Marlins organization has sung that song before, ultimately going silent.
In the scenario where both the Phillies and Marlins make the playoffs, the edge would still go to the revered Mattingly who won the award in 2020. Think about every time a media personality refers to him as “Donnie Baseball” as a sign of how willing the voting base is to support him.
For context, the last to win the Manager of the Year Award to be hired during the season was Joe Girardi with the Marlins in 2006. Also related, Girardi that year and Bud Black in 2010 are the last managers to win the award without earning a playoff berth.
Options
Based on this handicap, there are two options to wager on in both leagues. That reduced field provides some value for a bettor to enter into the awards market this late in the season.
A wager on either Venable or Tracy makes sense.
Backing Venable in the AL offers a little more stability than climbing on the Tracy bandwagon now, as Boston’s current winning ways aren’t sustainable.
For those who want to wager on both, then look at Venable (+115) for Manager of the Year and Boston (-145) to make the playoffs.
The reason I don’t suggest the inverse of these two bets, which would pay more, is that Chicago making the playoffs is better media fodder and narrative than the Red Sox turning it around with a new manager.
That logic might then sound incongruent with my belief that Mattingly will win the award in the NL. However, in this league it will likely come down to him or McCullough, and I have no confidence Miami will improve a team that at the moment is barely holding on to a playoff spot.
There is likely a better chance that the Marlins trade Sandy Alcantara than acquire reinforcements. The Mattingly story is going to resonate with voters more than any other NL candidate.
If a bettor believes the race is down to Mattingly and McCullough, a wager can be made on both with these odds to bring in some offseason profit.
Legging it out
Parlay enthusiasts often talk about searching for another bet to tie in with an existing one to create juicer odds.
Here is an option that might not create the juicest of juicy odds but is underpriced. Detroit All-Star Kevin McGonigle (-250) to win American League Rookie of the Year. The infielder is running away from the competition (Munetaka Murakami (+700) has missed time due to injury) and should be priced more like Ohtani (-800) to win the NL MVP.
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