MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Wednesday, July 22.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
Our Opta AI MLB Player Prop Projections are also available.
2:10 PM Eastern
San Francisco Giants vs. Kansas City Royals
Giants starting pitcher Landen Roupp owns a 3.98 ERA with only 0.6 home runs allowed per nine innings, though his 3.9 walks per nine innings remain a concern. He is also hurt by a Giants bullpen that ranks 25th in ERA since June 1 at 5.47. The Royals have been a much better offensive team at home, ranking 13th in scoring with 4.8 runs per game compared to dead last on the road at 3.7 runs per game. Kansas City will send Seth Lugo to the mound. Lugo owns a 4.39 ERA with 1.2 home runs and 2.9 walks allowed per nine innings while facing a Giants lineup that ranks 25th in scoring at 4.1 runs per game.
Pick: Royals Moneyline -102
Greg’s Handicap: Royals -122
3:10 PM Eastern
Washington Nationals vs. Colorado Rockies
The Nationals lead the league by averaging nearly 5.5 runs per game and will look to take advantage of Rockies starter Gabriel Hughes. Hughes owns a 3.14 ERA, but that comes in a sample size of just three career MLB appearances. Colorado’s bullpen also ranks 26th in ERA at 4.91. Nationals starter Cade Cavalli has pitched better than his 3.78 ERA would indicate, posting a 3.21 fielding independent with 10.2 strikeouts and 0.8 home runs allowed per nine innings.
Pick: Nationals Moneyline -132
Greg’s Handicap: Nationals -147
3:40 PM Eastern
Cincinnati Reds vs. Seattle Mariners
Mariners starter Emerson Hancock has enjoyed a breakout season, posting a 3.17 ERA with 8.3 strikeouts and just 2.3 walks per nine innings. Reds starter Brady Singer owns a 4.45 ERA with a 5.44 fielding independent and has allowed two home runs per nine innings, but he has surrendered two earned runs or fewer in seven of his last eight starts. He also benefits from facing a Mariners lineup that ranks 28th in scoring at fewer than 4.1 runs per game, while Seattle’s bullpen ranks fourth in ERA at 3.53.
Pick: Reds vs. Mariners Under 8 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 7.3
4:07 PM Eastern
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Angels
Cardinals starting pitcher Hunter Dobbins has been serviceable through five appearances, posting a 4.03 ERA with 9.3 strikeouts per nine innings. He also draws a favorable matchup against an Angels lineup that ranks last in the American League in home scoring at fewer than 3.8 runs per game. Angels starter Reid Detmers has pitched better than his 4.16 ERA would indicate, posting a 3.22 fielding independent with 10.2 strikeouts, 0.9 home runs, and 2.7 walks allowed per nine innings.
Pick: Cardinals vs. Angels Under 9 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.4
6:40 PM Eastern
Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians
Guardians starter Slade Cecconi owns a 4.55 ERA, but his 4.29 fielding independent, along with 1.2 home runs and 2.8 walks allowed per nine innings, points toward positive regression. He has also allowed three runs or fewer in 11 of his last 12 starts. Twins starter Bailey Ober has a 4.32 ERA, but he has pitched to plenty of contact with a 4.68 fielding independent and 1.5 home runs allowed per nine innings. Minnesota’s bullpen ranks 27th in ERA at 5.11, while Cleveland’s relief corps ranks seventh at 3.75.
Pick: Guardians Moneyline -120
Greg’s Handicap: Guardians -148
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Phillies starter Aaron Nola has struggled throughout the season, posting a 5.68 ERA and 4.96 fielding independent while allowing two home runs per nine innings. Dodgers starter Eric Lauer owns a 4.81 ERA and an even higher 6.06 fielding independent with 2.1 home runs allowed per nine innings and only 5.5 strikeouts per nine innings. However, he benefits from the support of a Dodgers lineup that leads the league in road scoring with 5.9 runs per game. Los Angeles also owns the better bullpen, ranking ninth in ERA at 3.79 compared to Philadelphia’s 22nd-ranked 4.40 mark.
Pick: Dodgers Moneyline -112
Greg’s Handicap: Dodgers -124
8:05 PM Eastern
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago Cubs
With the wind expected to be blowing inward at Wrigley Field, conditions should help suppress offense despite both starters allowing plenty of contact. Cubs starter Colin Rea owns a 4.74 ERA with 6.8 strikeouts and 3.3 walks per nine innings, but benefits from facing a Tigers lineup that ranks 22nd in road scoring at 4.2 runs per game. Tigers starter Keider Montero is recording just 6.3 strikeouts per nine innings, but he has produced a 3.22 ERA while allowing only 0.8 home runs and two walks per nine innings. He is also backed by a bullpen that ranks fifth in ERA since June 1 at 3.04.
Pick: Tigers vs. Cubs Under 8 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 7.3
