Bet these MLB teams to win their division and make the playoffs:
A few years ago, I performed an exercise coming out of the MLB All-Star break in which I simulated the rest-of-season schedule against my power ratings. As well as I did with the article, there were a couple of clear weak spots. First, at the time, the league was still two weeks away from the trade deadline, and there was a plethora of moves that wound up significantly affecting the strength levels of several teams. Second, there were injury situations that gained a lot more clarity over the next couple of weeks that I didn’t account for with that same clarity. As such, I promised myself that I would wait until after the trade deadline before I would perform the exercise again. Well, that choice improved my results dramatically, as I will explain in a bit! As we head deeper into August with a little less than 50 games remaining for each team, it is almost a perfect time to take a snapshot of the season thus far and add to it what might come based upon the remaining schedules for each team and the current power ratings I am offering.
With just less than two months left for each team, some of the divisional races are open for the taking between at least a pair of teams, the majority of these situations in the American League. In these divisions, I have found that simulating the rest of the season based on current power ratings, injury situations, and remaining schedule can pay dividends, particularly when you match the current division win odds against the results. This article is all about doing that.
Before I go on, at the risk of putting pressure on myself to perform again in 2026, I have to take some time to “toot my own horn,” as this same 2024 piece was one of the most profitable articles that I have ever done for VSiN. ALL SIX of the predictions and suggested wagers wound up hitting, producing +6.2 units of profit. Here is a recap of the wager suggestions I offered and personally made:
Steve’s AL East wager – Yankees to win the division at -170: WINNER
Steve’s AL Central wager – Kansas City to make the playoffs at -135: WINNER
Steve’s AL West wager – Seattle to not make the playoffs at -120: WINNER
Steve’s NL East wager – Mets to make the playoffs at +115: WINNER
Steve’s NL Central wager –St. Louis to not make the playoffs at -240: WINNER
Steve’s NL West wager –D’Backs to not make the playoffs at +105: WINNER
Then last year, although I lost -2.2 units overall thanks to the Tigers’ unprecedented collapse, I did hit all three National League wagers I suggested:
Steve’s NL East wager – Phillies to win the division at +105: WINNER
Steve’s NL Central wager – Milwaukee to win the division at +105: WINNER
Steve’s NL West wager –Dodgers to win less than 97 games: WINNER
There are some important points I need to share before I reveal the projections I’ve come up with for the rest-of-season schedules based upon my current power ratings. The games in the current record section cover all games played through Wednesday, 8/5. Consider these key fundamentals and roster points in full before heading to the counter to place your wagers.
– The current power ratings also don’t account for the typical September overpricing that always comes up, as oddsmakers tend to boost the lines on the better teams in conjunction with the rising stakes of games. They also don’t reflect any late-season resting of starters after playoff spots have been clinched. In both of the aforementioned cases, game lines can swing by as much as 50 cents on a contest, which can account for about 0.1 wins/losses on my projections. Multiply this by five, and you can see how some changes would occur to the projected standings.
– I projected five-man rotations for every team based upon recent usage. Obviously, it is impossible to project every starting pitcher for the remaining 710 games, so this could also throw off the numbers. For instance, some teams will have doubleheaders remaining on their schedule thanks to the late-season start and earlier postponements. Naturally, these rotations will rely on spot starters in these unusual scheduling circumstances. I have done my best to insert spot starters for doubleheaders in games involving CIN-STL, NYY-BOS, CLE-DET, and NYY-TB. The teams with the most games remaining from now till the end of the season whose rotations might be thrown off the most are Boston, the White Sox, and Cincinnati, each with 49 games remaining. There are seven others with 48, of which their starting staffs may be taxed more than the rest of the league. Just something to keep in mind.
– I have adjusted for the neutral field games for Philadelphia/Minnesota on 8/13 and Atlanta/Milwaukee on 8/23.
– If you are curious, taking a macro look at the remaining schedules, the Yankees (29) and San Francisco (28) have the most remaining home games of any teams while Baltimore (28) and Cincinnati (27) play the highest amount of remaining road tilts.
– I have made several assumptions and/or speculations based upon when some key players may return to the field for their respective teams from injured lists based upon information currently shown on ESPN.com. These key positional players include Blaze Alexander (Orioles), Trevor Story/Roman Anthony (Red Sox), Will Smith (Dodgers), Byron Buxton (Twins), Juan Soto (Mets), Aaron Judge/Giancarlo Stanton/Cody Bellinger (Yankees), O’Neill Cruz/Konnor Griffin (Pirates), Matt Chapman (Giants) and Josh Jung (Texas), among others.
– The biggest pitcher names expected to return at some point over the next couple of months include Mike Soroka/Ryne Nelson (Arizona), Jeffrey Springs/Luis Severino (Athletics), Chris Bassitt (Orioles), Garrett Crochet (Red Sox), Clay Holmes (Cubs), Jack Flaherty/Justin Verlander (Tigers), Blake Snell/Tyler Glasnow (Dodgers), Max Meyer (Marlins), Nick Pivetta/Joe Musgrove (Padres) and Connelly Early (Washington). Of course, several of those returnees won’t enhance their own team’s postseason chances much, but they do impact the schedule strengths of their remaining opponents. There are several other pitcher injury situations that are reflected, but these are the big ones.
– In terms of remaining schedule ease or difficulty, according to the simulation, and assuming the pitching probables line up somewhat accurately, the easiest remaining schedules belong to Cleveland, the Dodgers, and Texas. The toughest schedules are with Cincinnati, Milwaukee, and Baltimore.
– I ran all of the simulation numbers for games of Thursday 8/6/25 through the end of the season, ensuring that all teams reached the 162-game full season mark.
VIEW FINAL MLB PROJECTION CHART HERE
If you’re particularly interested in the MLB playoff matchups projected, they would be as follows:
American League:
1) TAMPA BAY – bye
2) CHICAGO WHITE SOX – bye
3) HOUSTON vs. 6) CLEVELAND
4) NY YANKEES vs. 5) BOSTON
National League:
1) LA DODGERS– bye
2) MILWAUKEE – bye
3) ATLANTA vs. 6) ARIZONA
4) CHICAGO CUBS vs. 5) PHILADELPHIA
Looking at the potential Wild Card matchups, the Yankees-Red Sox and Cubs-Phillies series would certainly be big ones. Keep in mind, these projections are nearly done as a way for you to spot potential value on the current odds boards at DraftKings Sportsbook, whether that be by my schedule strength calculations or by the actual won-lost projections after 162 games. I’ll go through each division and share my take on the findings and any potential value spots.
AL East Division
Tampa Bay currently owns a 4.5-game lead in the AL East over New York, and a 5.5-game lead over Boston. Both of those margins are expected to shrink by season’s end, according to my projections, as both teams are expected to gain about three games. The Rays’ play has been somewhat volatile lately, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see this division overturned by season’s end. The Yankees are where they are despite the absence of three of their biggest bats, who should all be back by September. Their starting pitching is the best of the three teams. The Red Sox are red hot right now and have the league’s best bullpen. They also are missing some key hitters, in particular Roman Anthony. Perhaps the biggest reason I wouldn’t count either team out at this point is that the Yankees have the most home games remaining in the league, the Red Sox are the best team in baseball since 7/1, and the Rays face the league’s fourth-toughest schedule the rest of the way. Baltimore also faces a very tough schedule, and defending AL champ Toronto just hasn’t gotten it going all season. Both theoretically remain in the wild card hunt, but the schedules of the other current contenders are way easier.
Steve’s wager(s): I will take lengthy odds on both NEW YORK (+250) and BOSTON (+390) to win the division. If either hits, it will be a nice return. There is also a unique opportunity to bet Baltimore under 85.5 wins at BetRivers. It almost feels like a mistake. Perhaps it is, although I did find the numbers as of Thursday morning. My projections say the O’s won’t even win 80.
AL Central Division
The AL Central would seem to be as wide open as any division right now, and just like last season, there could be some late-season movement that changes the playoff picture entirely. I’m not sure anyone at this point entirely trusts the White Sox to hang on to their three-game lead, although it could easily be argued that they do indeed deserve that trust. Chicago has been elite at home this season and on paper plays the 27th-toughest remaining schedule. Only Cleveland’s is softer in the division. That said, my projections and the current win totals offered at BetRivers are very much in line, and the price for Chicago (-120) to win the division doesn’t seem all that overwhelming.
Steve’s wager: I like the WHITE SOX (-120) to finish off the AL Central. Their youthful exuberance, their rather easy remaining slate, and Cleveland seemingly just going through the motions recently look like a nice recipe for success. Who knows, if Chicago keeps up its current pace, it could easily find itself a way to the Wild Card bye and be hosting a divisional series against the eventual winner of the AL West or the #6 wild card seed. That’s some nice motivation.
AL West Division
Three teams are currently separated by 2-1/2 games or less in the AL West Division, and at this point, it is Houston that has charged up in recent weeks to take the lead. I’m sure a lot of experts would suggest that the Astros are the most talented team overall in the tight race and, for that reason, should eventually prevail. However, on paper, they do play the tougher schedule than the Mariners and Rangers, and to be quite honest, their starting pitching is a massive reason for concern. Even their ace, Hunter Brown, is having a down season by his standards. The starting pitcher depth edge clearly goes to Seattle. The edge in elite-level starting pitching goes to the Rangers. All three teams have held the lead in the division at different points the last couple months. See below for the team I like to win this division and the other wagers I would endorse.
Steve’s wager: TEXAS to win the division at +230 and/or make the playoffs at +120. I prefer the top rotation of deGrom, Eovaldi, and Gore to anything the other teams are currently putting up. Yes, I know the Mariners have a solid 1-5, but none have been really elite. Plus, Seattle’s lineup isn’t living up to billing either. The Astros have put themselves in a good position, however, and their bullpen has been one of the best in the league over the last month, effectively counterbalancing the weak starting rotation. Plus, they score a half run per game more than either the Rangers or Mariners. Give me Houston -135 to make the playoffs too.
NL East Division
After going through a rough patch for an extended period in June and July minus Ronald Acuna, Jr., the Braves have picked it back up this past week to pretty much put to bed any talk of the Phillies catching them for the division lead. Let’s face it too, this Phillies team looks better on paper than it does on the field this season. That doesn’t mean that Philadelphia won’t pick it up as October nears, as the lineup is as talented as any, just that to this point, they really haven’t. Elsewhere in the NL East, this division lacks any of the intrigue of the others’, as the three other teams aren’t in contention for anything, besides perhaps stretching to think Miami might contend for a Wild Card spot. Also, the current win props at Bet Rivers are nearly identical to my projections.
Steve’s wager: PHILADELPHIA to make the playoffs at -425. Obviously this isn’t really going out on a limb, as -425 isn’t the typical price I like to pay. However, it is the only wager that makes sense to me from this division. If you’re perhaps looking to pare that price down a bit, might I suggest a parlay with another of the more obvious selections such as Atlanta to win the division, or similarly priced options from other divisions.
NL Central Division
As has become the usual pattern for the NL Central Division, oddsmakers seriously undervalued Milwaukee at the outset of the season, setting a win prop of just 84.5 for the three-time defending division champs. The Brewers need just 14 wins in their final 48 games to eclipse that number. The adjusted number at this point in the season at BetRivers is a lofty 96.5, and my numbers project this team to win 98.2 games. There are several motivations for the Brewers to accomplish that, as first, it would be a new franchise record. Second, it would put them agonizingly close to 100 wins. And third, it could secure the NL top seed for a second year in a row. Many suggest that manager Pat Murphy’s team is currently in a slump and giving the Cubs a chance to run them down. Adding fuel to this argument is that the Brewers play the second-toughest schedule in the league according to my ROS simulation. Countering that, however, is the fact that Milwaukee owns a 30-15 record versus teams over .500 this year. Last year, I picked the Brew Crew at +105 to win the division in this article. That said, -500 is too steep for my blood. Chicago would seem to be a lock for the top wild card seed, and Pittsburgh’s roster has been shaped up nicely. Have the Pirates dug too big of a hole though? See below.
Steve’s wager: MILWAUKEE to win more than 96.5 games at BetRivers. The Brewers are healthy again with Kyle Harrison back in the rotation. They just added Dustin May at the trade deadline too, making their #1-#4 starting rotation among the best in MLB. As a longshot in this division, I wouldn’t have a problem with someone taking a flyer on Pittsburgh +600 to make the playoffs. The starting pitching is deep and good, the lineup is solid, and getting back O’Neill Cruz and soon thereafter Konnor Griffin could put this team in position to make a September surge.
NL West Division
The final division is another one with minimal intrigue, as the Dodgers have once again put themselves in position to wrap up the NL West early, despite a current six-game losing skid. I would like to point out that in this same piece a year ago, I wrote this exact thing: “Although the Dodgers have been floundering in recent weeks and their division lead is down to three games over the Padres, it’s hard to see a team with this much talent unraveling to the point of losing that lead.” Perhaps late-July, early-August slumps are becoming a regular thing for the league’s top team, as the long season can wear down any team. The important things for L.A. are that the lineup is pretty healthy, they just added SP Tarik Skubal, and they expect SP Blake Snell back this weekend. They also have the league’s second-easiest schedule remaining. Elsewhere, the Padres are coming on recently, and Arizona always seems to be in the position it is currently at this point each season. San Diego just bolstered its starting rotation with Casey Mize and is expecting Nick Pivetta and Joe Musgrove soon. The DBacks also have a manageable slate the rest of the way.
Steve’s wager: Last year I took the Dodgers to win less than 97.5 games and won fairly easily. This year I don’t like the same wager, as I personally believe the number set by BetRivers is pretty accurate. In which case, I’d like to focus on San Diego, as the Padres are finally finding a groove, having won nine of their last 12 games. The lineup talent is obvious, the starting rotation is rounding into form, and the back end of the bullpen is elite. I will take SAN DIEGO Over 83.5 wins and +175 to make the playoffs.
SPONSORED
TONY GEORGE from Docs Sports is at it again in MLB. This is nothing new for the 34-year veteran capper. He was #1 at Docs in 2024 in MLB with over +$13,600 in profits. Tony was up 71 units and +$5140 at the All-Star Break. In the last 14 days, Tony is +2440 (See here)
Another big plus is Tony is 14-5 with his Top Picks in MLB this year. Be sure to check out Tony’s action at Docs Sports daily.
